The Forbidden Technique Podcast #89 - UFC 301: Return of the King

Speaker 10s - 74.92s

The President, Yo, what's good, everyone. Yo, what's good, everyone? Welcome to the Forbitten Technique podcast with your boys, Christian and Silas PERSON. This week we're mostly going to be looking at the upcoming pay-per-view card in Brazil, UFC 301, which, compared to the last couple, not great for a pay-per-view card, but if you're somewhere where you're not payinglike the ESPN ORG pay-per-view rates and it makes no difference to you.

Speaker 075.12s - 79.36s

And also it's a lot of fights, so some of them got to be good. It's 14-fight card.

Speaker 179.36s - 153s

Oh, yeah, this is a thing. It's a pretty good card. It's just like, if you're paying like $300 or whatever they're charging for pay-per-views on ESPN ORG these days, then certainly not as strong as the last couple of pay-per-viewswe've had, but still a good card with some interesting fights on it. This card really suffered from how much they insisted on stacking UFC ORG 300 because this card really should have had Charles Olivera PERSON versus Armand-Saroukion this card, and it could have been five rounds on this card, and it should have been, whereas it was on a card that was so stacked that a fight that important in the lightweight division kind of just got swept under the rug. And honestly, you could have just had Max Gachie PERSON be the main event and have Pereira PERSON on this card, but it is what it is. We got Alessandre Pantosiadefending the flyweight title against Steve Urseg PERSON. I'm perfectly fine with this fight. I think it's cool that Steve Urseg PERSON's getting a title shot. Seems a little bit out of left field, but they needed someone who could headline a card in Brazil GPE, and the UFC ORG just continues to dig their own gravewith matchmaking in the flyweight division to where they didn't really have any options other than this.

Speaker 0153.5s - 164.44s

A bit of a rockhold bisming where people are criticizing it, but kind of just all the, it's kind of just the only fight they could make right now. It's a fair enough title of defense. Sometimes the champion just wants to stay active and fight someone good.

Speaker 1164.44s - 179.36s

Or like Volcanowski Korean NORP zombie. I guess champion just wants to stay active and fight someone good. Or like Volkinovsky Korean zombie. I guess the difference compared to those is the Steve Urseg PERSON, kind of just some guy who's just had like three fights in the UFC ORG, one of the most just-a-guy fighters we've ever seen compete for a title in the UFC ORG.

Speaker 0179.36s - 188.04s

I mean, Cote Garbrandt basically deserved a title shot as much as Steve Urseg did when he got his first one.

Speaker 1188.68s - 233.94s

Yeah, I'm totally fine with this fight. And Steve Ersig PERSON is pretty cool. He's a pretty neat boxing technician guy. Kind of looks like witness protection, Ryan Hall PERSON. He's just like funny. But he's got like a real nice jab.He's got some good footwork. You know, keeps himself over his feet well. We'll come forward when the opportunity presents itself and is probably better doing that because all MMA fighters are. But if someone really insists on pressuring him, he can take the back foot and work off of his jaband pick his spots to like sit down on an exchange. He has a pretty nice shot selection and decent mechanics when he does that. Nice left hook on the end of exchanges.

Speaker 0234.46s - 235.96s

His right straight is really clever.

Speaker 1236.62s - 342.34s

Yeah, and he's pretty accurate. And like he's not, he's not like a rope boxer. You know, he clearly feels exchanges well and builds on what lands and what doesn't land in every exchange. I really like Steve Ossig's clinch game as well.He will use it to just regain the centre and keep himself in good positions in the Octagon FAC relative to his opponent. He alsowill punish people who just want to use the clinch as a space to rest and get their shit together, which is what mostMMA fighters use it for. But he's all about like short clinch exchanges and attacking in the transitions. Like, um,you know, if he collides with someone in exchange, he'll just grab a collar tie, sneak in a cheeky little uppercut or a hookand then break and then hit stuff on the break as well in that moment where people think that they're resetting. And he catches people in those moments a lot. He has pretty good takedown defense, even when like Alessandro Costa PERSON, who in many ways is just a worse version of Alessandro Pantoja PERSON. He was timing some decent shots on Steve Urseg PERSON,and I think just because Steve Urseg PERSON keeps himself in good positions and has pretty good footing. He's just like ready to make good defensive decisions, even when people get good shots off on him. But then he does eventually get taken down because Costa PERSON really insists on chaining takedown attempts togetherand then gives his back in a scramble, but Costa's back control is just nowhere near the level of Pantosia's.

Speaker 0342.72s - 343.48s

So that's a concern.

Speaker 1343.58s - 344.94s

Christian, what do you think about Steve Ericsig PERSON?

Speaker 0345.12s - 581s

I think he should not leg kick in his fight as much as he tends to just on autopilot when at range. Because he does, I think there are a liability for him in this fight. Because Alessandra Costa PERSON has so many opportunities to overhand counter. And Pantoja PERSON will take those opportunities. He has also a really good takedown if you just keep giving him these opportunities where you're squaring your hips throwing a noncommittal kick. The reason he was throwing is because it sets up his right hand, which he's really sneaky with.He can show a kick faint and then just blast you in the mouth with the right hand that he... He's really quick and it's hard to see coming because he can throw it from really any angle that his shoulders at and it whips out really fast. It's mostly an arm punch, but he gets some good fucking drive into it. And that's most of his cleverness as a boxer's just timing his right hand or finding an angle and land a left hook on you whenever you're not expecting him to be able to hit you from where you are. Like the Chanel ORG fight, Chanel ORG just didn't realize how close he was,and also was completely blindsided because of where his, like, his eyes were looking whenever he got hit with the shot. He just wasn't, he just got caught called, kind of,which is not a thing that I'm expecting, Pantoja PERSON to have any issue with. Pantosia's chin is good from bell to bell, so I don't think that Ersig PERSON's going to have a ton of success in that, but I do think he's going to have a lot of success with counter combinations, because Pantoja PERSON likes to enter if you're a guy that's going to keep trying to bait entries with your jab in probes. So the more that he bates out attacks from Pantosia, the more Pantosia is going to haveopportunities to land, but also get countered for his attempts. And I don't think that Pantosia is going to get disincentivized by it. I think he'll just keep coming, which then it's going to be a cardio battle. And I do think Erseg is going to wear down before Pantosia does. So I'm going to pick Pantoja by either submission like rounds three or four or maybe a knockout in the first tworounds. Like while he's still fresh enough to land big power because Erzeg PERSON has real shaky defense. He just seems to have a great chin, which I tend to trust chins overpower a lot of the time, but in this scenario, I'm making the call that I think that it's probably going to end with Erseg PERSON getting chinned quite a lot. Also, it's not like he's been unhurtable. He just has a really good chin for taking a shot. So a hitter that's as powerful as Pantoja that can also take your back off of Erseg PERSON's primary counter tool or tool that he likes to attack in transition with in his left hook.Pantoja PERSON loves ducking under in transition if you throw a left hook trying to catch him off guard. He also keeps his head really low. And Erseg PERSON has nice uppercuts, but his timing on them is a little miscalibrated, I feel. Maybe he'll get the timing early and then the uppercut could do a lot of work for him because mechanically it's quite well, it's quite good, but I think overall Ersseg PERSON just needs to avoid kicking and stay on the outside and let Pantoja PERSON come to him, but also make sure to take theground any time Pantantoja PERSON gives it. Because Pantoja PERSON, he'll move back some, especially if he's getting really tired and he wants to try and draw you in so he can take you down. You just got to be very measured, and I don't think I trust someone as green as Urseg PERSON to be measured enough to actually win. Maybe I'm wrong, though, because, you know, Garbrand PERSON had a similar situation. Bring that up because they're a similar weight class and it's a guy that's ranked 10 about to fight, the guy that's the champion.Do you think that Pantoge is going to be able to hurt Erseg PERSON?

Speaker 1581.5s - 639s

I think he's certainly capable of it. You know, Erseg PERSON, for all of his kind of slickness when he gets someone who'sjust really steadily coming at him inviting the same couple of exchanges like Matt Schnell PERSON.When Alessandro Costa just like realized he was losing and just said fuck it and just ran at Steve Urseg PERSON, like wing and overhands,I had a surprising amount of success considering Ursaic had beat the absolute dog shit out of him in the first round. You know, Pantosia being a somewhat limited and quite plodding striker, like maybe there's some room for this in this fight for at least in moments for Steve Urseg PERSON to look like fucking Sean O'Malley against Cheeto Vera.The ranger's that can attack from

Speaker 0639s - 640.84s

is definitely going to be a problem for Pantoja PERSON.

Speaker 1641.44s - 667.96s

Yeah, he's going to eat a ton of jabs just like walking at Erseg PERSON. It's just really hard to pick someone who looks like Ryan Hall against Alessandre Pantosia. Like, it's just the inevitable feeling that he's kind of just going to get hossed and thrown out of the cageat some point. Like, I do think Pantosia is going to go pretty hard in the first couple of rounds and probably try to enforce a grappling edge early as well.

Speaker 0669.9s - 689.8s

Ersec PERSON seems like a good planner. Not necessarily like the best strategies in the world, but he definitely watches what his opponents do going into the fight. I think he's going to be trying to avoid getting his back ticking at all costs. It's not like he gives us back super freely anyways, but you don't have to forPantoja PERSON to get your back.

Speaker 1690.16s - 749.64s

I think in that regard, he'll be especially prepared in like standing, clinch situations by the fence and, you know, don't just give up the rear way cinch and let the guy jump on your back from standing, stufflike that. It's more just the fact that if Pantosia can just get a good body lock or double leg takedown and just lock Erseg PERSON down, is Erseg just going to get Jalen Turner versus Hanato Moikanoed PERSON, where he's so worried about giving his back to make a scramble happen to get to his feetthat he just gets smushed from top half and mount the whole time. Or does he give his back to go for a scramble and then just get rear naked choked? Because I'm going to say Alessandro Pantosia's back control is a bit better than Alessandro Coster's PERSON.

Speaker 0750s - 789.84s

Yeah, Ersig PERSON's also pretty easy to get the fence if you're willing to just throw while willing to get hit. Erseg, he could be a good hitter, but Matt Schnell PERSON is pretty easy to knockout, traditionally speaking. If you're going to have your knockout win, it would be against him. I'm not saying that Ersaint PERSON doesn't hit hard. I'm saying that it does not take a huge hitter to knockout match-chanel. So it's probably not indicative of his chances to hurt Pantosia,unless Pantosia is dramatically worse than we last saw. But yeah, I think

Speaker 1789.84s - 899.52s

Erseg PERSON being a guy who will give up the back foot against anyone who really insists on pressuring him, and you know, he'll try and just like walk him onto jabsand like pick his moments. That makes me think he's going to let Pantosia come forward, which means he's going to be more liable to get put on the fence, which is going to be the dicier spots for him in terms of defending takedowns because he can't use his footwork and distance if he just gets body locked into the cage. And yeah, Pantosia just fuckingstrunks people when he gets a hold of them and like I like what I've seen in terms of defensive wrestling from Steve Euseg but I've just seen enough that I think Pantosia is going to be able to exploitto maybe just get a quick submission or secure entire rounds and really wear on Steve Irseg PERSON in the early going of the fight. And also just, I mean, Steve Irseg PERSON, he does just accept a ton of 50-50 exchanges with Matchnell Schnell and just get hit by him a bunch,but then still knock Matchnell PERSON out because that's always what happens in those Matchnell PERSON fights pretty much. Because Matchnell PERSON can be a pretty dangerous puncher in exchanges. He also landed a nice left hook on Alessandro Pantosia that put him on skates.It's just the fact that Max-Snell will, he will keep insisting on having the same exchanges that he's coming out slightly worse-for-air on pretty much every time until he just insists on someone knocking him out.So he, against pretty much all of the elite fly weights that he has landed great, powerful, clean shots and then gotten finished. Pantosha PERSON is just a guy that you don't want to be having50-50 exchanges with.

Speaker 0900.14s - 921.36s

I don't think he's going to be able to limit them. I think he's going to try to throw counter combinations, and then probably Pantoja PERSON just continues it, and then pushes him to the fence, and then lands a bunch of big power shots and or shoots a takedown.And he's really slicking about getting the back, like off the fence.

Speaker 1922.72s - 980.64s

So, yeah, I'm going to pick Pantosia by second round rear naked choke. I think people have been very critical of Pantosia as a champion because they think he maybe doesn't have a champion's gameis maybe not the most technically deep fighter we've ever seen. But techniques for fucking losers. Pantosia's a real fucking fighter, you know.He has a peered down somewhat limited skill set that he just knows how to leverage to win the matchups that he's in even when they get hard and when he gets tired. He leverages all of his physical attributes and just really insists on winning. I think particularly now that he has become a champion in ways that like, you know, he had that Ascar Ashkarov PERSON fight wherehe kind of just spammed submissions and they didn't work and then he just lost. I just don't

Speaker 0980.64s - 994.38s

think he's that guy anymore. I think when we've seen when guys like Josaldo and Charles Olivera PERSON have gone on the championship before they reach that point where they're just like, no one is fucking taking this away from me.

Speaker 1994.42s - 995.6s

I work too hard for this.

Speaker 0996.5s - 1025.86s

Yeah, I think he leverages mental toughness in a way that most fighters just can't. They're not fucking built for it enough he's really able to get his ass beat continuouslyand not falter at all and just keep making you fight him so I don't expect almost any fighter that's 12 and 1to be able to be experienced enough to handle that type of challenge right now.

Speaker 11026.24s - 1029.48s

Just haven't seen Erseg PERSON in those kind of deep waters, you know?

Speaker 01031.28s - 1055.3s

No. And I mean, it's a good test. It's just about as harsh of a test as you can get. And Pantoja PERSON has a very difficult game to fight because of that. You don't have to be the most technically skilled fighter. You have to be the best fighter. So sometimes that means just going at people and beating the shit out of them until they quit. Or just get beaten up by it. Being relentless

Speaker 11055.3s - 1061.64s

is a very good strategy. Yeah. Well, and the one area where Pantosia is genuinely extremely

Speaker 01061.64s - 1078.78s

technical is with his back-take and back control game. Yeah, there's skill involved in all aspects of his approach to being relentless. It's just that that's the staple of it. He could be a much worse fighter mechanically and still have a lot of success.

Speaker 11080.08s - 1092.62s

Yeah, just from being a guy who will take your back from any glimmer of an opportunity that you give him and either hold it down for pretty much the whole round or just choke you the fuck out.

Speaker 01094.12s - 1102.62s

His defense is quite bad, but he fights well, no matter how much you hit him. Unless his chin's gone, I don't think he's going to get knocked out.

Speaker 11104.24s - 1117.92s

Yeah, we have no reason to believe that yet. So, okay, so we got return of Jose Aaldo PERSON. How old is Jose Aaldo PERSON now? 37.

Speaker 01119.28s - 1119.52s

37.

Speaker 11122.48s - 1153.24s

Yeah, I mean, he said he retired after the Marab PERSON fight, which wasn't the worst loss that anyone's ever had for someone that late in their career. It's just the kind of loss that you expect, like, technicians to have where they just kind of get out hustled and don't do enough. So he retired and now USADA ORG's gone and now we're going to see a bunch of guys coming back. I'm not saying anything.

Speaker 01153.78s - 1158.98s

Are you implying that a professional athlete would use performance-anhancing drug silas? Allegedly.

Speaker 11159.78s - 1176s

So I'm interested to see what version of Josiaho PERSON we get because this really is a are you just shot fight? Because Jonathan Martinez PERSON is very good, but she kind of basically needs to be able to low kick Joseo to beat him and that's never worked against Josealdo PERSON.

Speaker 01177.12s - 1218s

Or he's got to show a lot better ability to pair his kicks with his punches than he ever has. He's good at it. You just have to be so fucking good at it to trick Aldo PERSON on it. And my perception of what Aldo did was he was like, oh, shit, I'm not like a very good boxer anymore because I'm old. Shit, let me go box three people real quick. And then just spent all the 2023 boxing people had a draw against Jeremy Stevens two decision winsjust went to decision three times and he's like, oh, okay, okay, I'm back, cool, I'm ready to go. I just need to recalibate the tools. And then he's coming back and I was just going to fucking dance a guymuch slower than him.

Speaker 11218.78s - 1226.78s

I mean, his career best boxing performance was like the Pedro Munoz PERSON fight. Or the font fight.

Speaker 01227.78s - 1230.12s

Yeah, depending on your criteria.

Speaker 11230.4s - 1258.62s

I don't know exactly what's going on there. But it's not that Jonathan Martinez is a complete one-trick pony with the low kicks. It's just that I do think he kind of needs to be able to get his kicking game going for the rest of his game to flow. And I also think part of what's made Jonathan Martinez PERSON so much more of an effective fighter is how much more fucking insistent he is about just spamming low kicks against people.

Speaker 01258.76s - 1264.98s

And he throws a lot of straits. And Aldo PERSON's been having trouble seeing the straits coming for years now. Yeah.

Speaker 11266.08s - 1416.14s

And the low kicks have always been part of his game, but it feels like he used to be a way more of varied kickboxer. Then he's just to have the fights with Cubs Swanson PERSON and Adrian Yonez, where he's just like, if I land a low kick on you and you don't do anything about it,I'm going to do that like fucking ten more times, and then you switch stands, I'm going to keep doing it. He's a Southpaw who loves the like open stance inside calf kick which is a really annoying one for like jamming entries and really fucks up people's footing and balance.But Jonathan Martinez PERSON is a very all the way in, all the way out kind of fighter. He is on the outside, jabbing and low kicking you up, or he's like trying to engage a clinch at any time it gets too close. He really doesn't like being in the pocket too much. And he's had fights where he kind of just gets kind of just gets chased down and bullied out of exchangesand got knocked the fuck out by Davy Grant PERSON. I do think he's gotten a lot better since he lost to Davy Grant PERSON. I think, you know, Cub Swanson PERSON and Adrian Yonnias really tried to like pursuethe pocket and chase Martinez PERSON down and they just couldn't keep consistent enough pressure on Martinez to put him in the positions where he's gotten badly hurt in the past. And then they just got absolutely shredded with low kicks and just got destroyed. Because yeah, Martinez PERSON has been most vulnerable when people chase him out the pocketbecause, I mean, we talk about this all the time, like 90% of knockouts in MMA happen because someone gets put consistently on the back foot. Either they just get put against the cage and track down, or, like, MMA fighters just have bad defensive reactions when they're constantly forced to exit. Even fighters with pretty good footwork a lot of the time, they can take a couple of stepsbackwards and still keep themselves in a good stance or like take a good angle. But quite often beyond that, MMA fighters will just like leap backwards, take both their feet off the ground and drop their hands or just like lean back with their chin upand like reaching out for punches and just get like chin when they're in absolutely no position to take a shot. So, yeah, Jose Aaldo PERSON is like fucking impossible to low kick. It's not that he's never been low kicked. Like Cheeto Verre PERSON and PedroMunoz still landed some low kicks

Speaker 01416.14s - 1420.9s

on Joseo PERSON. Yeah, and he just boxed for a year. So maybe that's worth noting.

Speaker 11421.9s - 1439.88s

Yeah, I guess he's been boxing. But I don't know, just stuff like that that's always been baked into his defensive systems. Yeah, I just don't expect Josaldo PERSON to suddenly just be not ready to pick his legs up against the low kicker of the division.

Speaker 01440.8s - 1445.44s

Also one of those slower guys in the in the way class

Speaker 11445.44s - 1447.9s

not necessarily slow

Speaker 01447.9s - 1471.58s

but compared to Aldo even at 37 I feel like Aldo is going to be faster than Jonathan Martinez PERSON is now and Aldo PERSON's in his 50s just because Aldo PERSON's that fast so it's going to be hard for him to besurprising Aldo PERSON very much and a lot of Martinez's game it's going to be hard for him to be surprising Aldo PERSON very much. And a lot of Martinez's game, it's, I just, how is he going to beat Aldo?

Speaker 11472.18s - 1498.52s

Joseo Aldo PERSON always counters off of his kick defense as well. Always capitalizes on, you know, his opponent having to regain their footing after like whiffing a kick against him or getting a kick checked. You know, if you're going to sell out on kicks like that, then you really want to be off balancing your opponent so that you actually have the opportunity to regain stance. Yeah, whereas Jose Aldo PERSON, he'll just left hook you real fucking hard while you're trying to step back.

Speaker 01499.8s - 1516.54s

And Aldo PERSON is good at getting on top. He might just take him down if he keeps being row with the leg kicks. Or just tape him over, something like that at getting on top. He might just take him down if he keeps being rowed with the leg kicks. Or just tape him over, something like that, and get on top. I don't think he's out of the question. Aldo PERSON was just going to do a bit of the font fight against a guy that's a lot less advanced of a boxer.

Speaker 11517.24s - 1574.16s

Yeah, against a guy who will absolutely consistently press one really specific advantage. And if Aldo PERSON's just, you know, if he's just lost a couple of steps and just isn't quite ready for that and just eats a couple of really hard low kicks at the beginning of the fight, then maybe he just gets old man bullied because that's really what the calf kick is best for is like,if you think someone's fucking shot and made of glass, you just walk up to them and kick them in the legs and they just explode. Like Jared Cannonier, Anderson, Silver PERSON, Alex Perez versus Formiga PERSON. A bit of the Cubs Watson PERSON fight. This is why it's a great fight to really see where Jose Aldo PERSON is at,because presuming that he is just fine and totally prepared for that stuff, which I think is reasonable to expect because free athletes don't age the same and being 37 for

Speaker 01574.16s - 1577.96s

Jose Aldo PERSON isn't the same as other people. I just feel like Aldo is

Speaker 11577.96s - 1580.42s

absolute poison in the pocket for Martinez PERSON.

Speaker 01581.3s - 1601.78s

And leaving the pocket and entering the pocket and whenever they're like far outside of the range of the pocket. I feel like there is all very few ways Martinez can wait outside of Aldo PERSON looking dramatically worse than we have any reason to assume he will. I really like Martinez. It's just he's fighting fucking Josie Aldo. Yeah.

Speaker 11602.68s - 1605.96s

Sorry. Sorry if that's very basic analysis, but

Speaker 01605.96s - 1615.92s

the matchup is really just if Martinez isn't shot and Aldo PERSON is. Yeah.

Speaker 11616.2s - 1622.32s

So I'm going to pick Jose Aldo PERSON by second round knockout. I'm going to say

Speaker 01622.32s - 1631.28s

he'll just take him to a decision. Just jab him, make him not want to come at him as entirely fair

Speaker 11631.28s - 1639.22s

um yeah okay now in a much worse fight than that we have Anthony Smith versus Vitor Petrino

Speaker 01639.22s - 1643.88s

Left hooks versus jabs but Anthony

Speaker 11643.88s - 1649.84s

has looked very odd since some events in his personal life transpired.

Speaker 01650.08s - 1653.48s

So I don't know how to analyze his fights.

Speaker 11653.98s - 1687.84s

I just basically can't pick Anthony Smith anymore. This is normally the exact level of fighter that when they put together a couple of sloppy banger wins in the UFC ORG middleweight division, they get matched up with Anthony Smith. I'm like, oh, no, Anthony Smith will beat the fuck out of this guy. Like, Vito Petrino is not as good as Ryan PERSON's band. Just can't pick Anthony Smith in fights anymore.Vito Petrino PERSON is very limited, but he has some light, heavyweight source. Pretty much.

Speaker 01688.46s - 1690.2s

Do you have anything to add to that?

Speaker 11690.56s - 1696.62s

I think Vitor PERSON, if he is anything, he's going to knock on anything, he's going to have

Speaker 01696.62s - 1740.36s

done anything Smith PERSON pretty immediately. But also, we have not seen Petrino PERSON versus someone that can grapple basically at all. I mean, Tyson Pedro, but I feel like being able to grapple with Tyson Pedro is a lot different than being able to grapple with Anthony Smith. Smith PERSON's a pretty consistent grapple, even against the people that have beaten the shit out of them. At least he's dangerous to grapple with. And we haven't really seen Petrino PERSON versus an athlete as good asAnthony Smith. Because he's a very good athlete himself, but they've given him pretty light touches when it comes to people that are going to test him physically. I mean, yeah, Modestis

Speaker 11740.36s - 1747.08s

Bukakis, one of the least athletic, like heavyweights ever, and Tyson Pedro a total one-round assassin.

Speaker 01747.52s - 1758.36s

And Marchine Prachnio PERSON is just very flawed. And also, he's a big light heavyweight, but he's not the biggest or anything. Anthony Smith's a fucking, a very stout guy.

Speaker 11758.36s - 1760.48s

Not especially, like, fast or durable.

Speaker 01760.52s - 1771.4s

Yeah, Anthony Smith is very stout. There's a reason that he's in the UFC ORG at the top level. I am never as critical of Anthony Smith as people tend to be.

Speaker 11771.88s - 1779s

I always used to consider Anthony Smith like the dividing line to the elite in light heavy weight.

Speaker 01779.3s - 1786.32s

Yeah, he is very hard to fight and he's much more athletic than you'd expect him to be. He's just very flawed and that's why he has so many losses.

Speaker 11787.36s - 1817.12s

Yeah, I was thought of him as a guy who would get pantsed by genuinely elite light heavyweights but anyone outside of that sphere would just get kind of destroyed by Anthony Smith. I'm just, I'm not sure if I can trust him to be that guy anymore. But if he has any of that left in him, Fitorio Petrano PERSON is just not very good. Michelle Pereira versus Ehor Potia PERSON.Ehor Potieri PERSON can kind of box now, and Michelle Pereira PERSON is a fucking knockout artist at middleweight.

Speaker 01818.32s - 1826.2s

Pottieri PERSON is relentless when he needs to be, which I think is going to be very difficult for Pereira PERSON to navigate if he doesn't knock him out immediately.

Speaker 11826.8s - 1859.74s

Yeah, because that's exactly why I thought that Mikhail Oleg Sejic might have actually been a pretty rough fight for Michelle Pereira PERSON. And it could have been because, I mean, Michaela Oleg Seagic is very much in the same mold as Hehorpote PERSON area, just like slightly underpowered guy who goes really hard and can box a little bit. Yeah, and Michelle Pereira PERSON just wiped Oleg Sejik PERSON off of the face of the planet instantly. So, I'm just going to pickhim to do that to E. Hiorporetiara PERSON because it's what he's been doing at middleweight. Yeah, I

Speaker 01859.74s - 1874.88s

think that's entirely fair. But something in me is just thinking, Michelle Pereira PERSON, hasn't changed. I know that he's gotten better and he's definitelyable to apply his power.

Speaker 11875.92s - 1879.48s

He hasn't changed. He's just always been a middle way and he didn't know it. That, but

Speaker 01879.48s - 1905.9s

like his skill set, I still think he's someone that can get bullied by someone that'll just come at him really hard. You know, like the Fialio PERSON fight was a bad look, even in a he's someone that can get bullied by someone that'll just come at him really hard. You know, like the Fialio PERSON fight was a bad look, even in a win, and that's in his current win streak. Anyone that is just willing to stay in range and keep coming at him, especially someone that can pair that with some clinch offense, it's going to be quite difficult. But also, Michelle Pryor might just grapple, because Michelle Perra PERSON is a pretty good grappler.

Speaker 11907.12s - 1912.98s

Yeah, I mean, you know, he is still that guy who got walked into the fence and obliterated by Dushko Todorovich PERSON.

Speaker 01913.96s - 1916.72s

That fight in particular is something that's giving me pause.

Speaker 11916.88s - 1930.56s

He's better than he was back then. He's developed comfort through high-level experience, where he seems to have just, like, gradually invented a way of fighting that actually makes sense for him through just having a bunch of fights in the UFC ORG.

Speaker 01931.52s - 1934.04s

Yeah, and it's do front kicks and straights.

Speaker 11934.36s - 1940.24s

Like, his footworks kind of still bad, but he uses it well now, you know?

Speaker 01940.58s - 1943.06s

Yeah, like mechanically, it's nothing special.

Speaker 11943.72s - 1959.48s

He's much more determined and much more consistent and just much more aware of when he's in danger and capable of dealing with it. Because on the flip side, the Ponziabio PERSON fight was like a pretty good look.I don't think so.

Speaker 01959.94s - 1962.24s

I think not winning by knock. Yeah,

Speaker 11962.26s - 1966.18s

but that's why he wasn't winning by knockout because he was at Welterway FAC and he was nerfing himself.

Speaker 01967.24s - 1971.46s

He still hit hard in Welterweight EVENT. He just was fighting people a lot faster.

Speaker 11971.84s - 1981.22s

I don't think he did it that hard. I think he needs that crazy speed edge. Now that he's had that, he looks like fucking, like the fastest middleweight that's ever lived.

Speaker 01981.6s - 1991.56s

I mostly just think Andre Petroski PERSON and Rekalorosch hate fighting someone that's more athletic than them. And I don't think that Eroportaria PERSON...

Speaker 11991.56s - 1995.34s

Most people who have Michael O'Oxedic PERSON fights are more athletic than him.

Speaker 01995.54s - 2021.02s

Yeah, but he still doesn't like it. Well, they're bigger than him. They're not always more athletic than him. Eroa Poetaria PERSON is probably expecting everyone he fights to be more athletic than him. And he just fights them anyways.And he's very composed and he'll pick off kicks or he'll try to pick off kicks. So if he can stifle even one half of Pereira PERSON's offense, then I think he should be able to work himself into the fight. But there is still the chance that Pereira PERSON goes and killed.

Speaker 12021.08s - 2022.26s

Are you picking the duelist then?

Speaker 02022.62s - 2027.86s

I kind of want to pick the dualist. He's a dualist and it's a 1v1. It seems like how could he lose? I'm going to pick Michelle Pereira PERSON goes and killed. Are you picking the dualist then? I kind of want to pick the dualist. He's a dualist, and it's a 1v1. It seems like how could he lose?

Speaker 12028.04s - 2031.06s

I'm going to pick Michelle Pereira by first round, Keough PERSON.

Speaker 02031.14s - 2044.38s

That's fair. I think Pereira PERSON is going to win, but it's more fun if one of us picks the other one. And I've defended Poitieri PERSON a lot more than I wanted to. So we got Cairo Boragio fighting Paul Craig. Cairobarrio PERSON is going to win.

Speaker 12045.36s - 2048.44s

Yeah, he's probably going to easily out jab him

Speaker 02048.44s - 2058.48s

and maybe get punched in the face a couple times and look kind of like a shaky boxer, but overall win completely without difficulty.

Speaker 12058.72s - 2064.2s

He's probably just going to let Paul Craig pull guard, and then... Like be on top and be fine.

Speaker 02064.2s - 2065.94s

And then just get on top and win a

Speaker 12065.94s - 2067.78s

top control decision.

Speaker 02068.16s - 2074.04s

Or get ground and pound off or maybe land a big punch. Maybe just submit Paul Craig. He has some dynamism to him.

Speaker 12074.04s - 2082.1s

I don't really know why this fight is getting made. I guess they're just like trying to slow cook Barrio a little bit, which I don't mind.

Speaker 02082.8s - 2084.12s

He hasn't fought this

Speaker 12084.12s - 2085.98s

matchup yet, so I don't mind it

Speaker 02085.98s - 2087.98s

at all. I guess,

Speaker 12088.1s - 2162.24s

but this is the only time you fight this matchup. At least give him Gerald Mershart PERSON or just, you know, he's won enough fights against people of enough note.Brad Tavares PERSON, give him something that's going to push him into meaningful fights at middleweight, but he's going to push him into meaningful fights at middleweight. But he's going to win easily. So, Jack Shaw PERSON is back. I haven't seen him in a while since, I think, since he lost to Ricky Simone PERSON.He's moving up to featherweight now. He's fighting Ewanerson Brito PERSON. Cool fight. Ewanerson Brito PERSON is hoss and just kind of classic violence Brazilian NORP does big punch and ninja chokekind of just plotting banger Jack Shaw PERSON is a pretty nice all-rounder technician who maybe seemed a little just like underpowered at Bantamweightand just seems like one of those fights where Jack Shaw PERSON has basically every technical edge, but is fighting a physical force in his first fight upper weight division that he seems kind of small for. But as we've been saying recently, you should just pick everyone who's going up a weight division to look the best they've ever looked and win easily.

Speaker 02163.5s - 2166.12s

Yeah, my current expectation is that

Speaker 12166.12s - 2168.16s

Jack Shore PERSON will look like

Speaker 02168.16s - 2170.4s

he's the most powerful and dynamic

Speaker 12170.4s - 2171.72s

fighter that he's ever looked like,

Speaker 02172.08s - 2174.14s

and then still maybe get outsized, because

Speaker 12174.14s - 2177.66s

you just have to see it before you believe it with a

Speaker 02177.66s - 2187.84s

guy like Jack Shore at 145. Like, the Machuan PERSON fight is not indicative of anything to me it's macuan amirconi

Speaker 12187.84s - 2190.24s

i forgot that he fought macwon

Speaker 02190.24s - 2197.84s

well it's because it was that since the rickie simone PERSON fight or yeah it was since the rickie simone PERSON fight okay

Speaker 12197.84s - 2210.32s

i did forget about that but you know that's just he won easily against macon armurcani that's just the uh can you getuanamrikan PERSON that's just the can you get anaconda choked in a round test yeah I think

Speaker 02210.32s - 2214.54s

Brito PERSON is a guy who will showcase how athletic featherweights tend to get

Speaker 12214.54s - 2245.9s

I wasn't sure about how Nathaniel Wood was going to look going up to featherweight and it was just like oh he looks twice as athletic and doesn't really seem to have an issue with people having reach on him. Doesn't look physically weak for the division. He's just been basically fine.So, yeah, just the hard fights are cool because you always do need to see someone at a new weight division to see how they fit in there.

Speaker 02246.6s - 2248.22s

In the Mach 1 PRODUCT fight barely counts.

Speaker 12249.32s - 2259.32s

Right, yeah, I literally, since we talked about it, 30 seconds, forgot about the Mac1 fight. Yeah, normally when people go up a weight division, they just look better because they're cutting less weight and they're fast.

Speaker 02259.78s - 2268.82s

So that's what I'm going to pick. I'm going to say Jack Shore by a vicious knockout in the second round. More likely just winning a decision comfortably.

Speaker 12270.62s - 2273.84s

So, what else we got on this card?

Speaker 02274.66s - 2281.88s

Carolyn Okovacavitch is fighting Yasmin Lu Shindo, which is fun, but it's more just to kind of see where Lucindo PERSON is.

Speaker 12282.9s - 2287.66s

Yeah, it should be a good fight. Elves Brenner is fighting Mick to Beck-Beck-or-A-Rabai.

Speaker 02288.94s - 2292.82s

Elvis Brenner's, you know, one of the Charles Olivera PERSON guys,

Speaker 12293.12s - 2308.9s

great fun action fighter. I haven't really seen how his defensive wrestling looks because he's basically just been matched up with bangers in the UFC ORG. And Mick to Beck-de-O-Rabai PERSON looked like fucking Khabi on short notice against Duros Medich PERSON.

Speaker 02309.42s - 2316.56s

Much worse on the feet. His striking looked fucking garbage, and he was purely defensive.

Speaker 12317.24s - 2320.36s

Yeah, interesting style class should be a fun one.

Speaker 02321.62s - 2326.78s

I think Elvis Brenner PERSON could actually get a lot of offense off if he can keep them the clinch.

Speaker 12327.22s - 2353.2s

Yeah, and to be fair, we've only seen McTabec Orabi PERSON against a guy who was not ready to grapple with him. Super short notice and, you know, Ores Medich PERSON has good first layer takedown defense, but beyond that doesn't have like depth as a positional grappler. Wacking Silver versus Draccar Close PERSON should be fun, I guess.This male bomb themes back against Vince Bachel PERSON. Yeah, they're making

Speaker 02353.2s - 2364.46s

Jamie Mlarky PERSON fight a knockout guy. So we get to see if he is a knockout guy in the UFC ORG or just a knockout guy before the UFC. Yeah, the card is okay.

Speaker 12366.48s - 2382.2s

So we still got plenty of time. I guess we can talk about last week's card, a fight night card with Alex Perez defeating Mateus Nicolao PERSON by knockout in the main event. Apparently we were like some of the only people picking Alex Perez PERSON in this fight.

Speaker 02383.2s - 2395.88s

For some reason, it felt pretty obvious to us that he would... I think it's just how we kind of gauged their athleticism matchup, because Perez PERSON just did not feel physically forced off at all.

Speaker 12396.26s - 2538.76s

I think just so many people pick MMA fights like the fighters are fucking racehorses, and they just see a tapology page like Alex Perez's and they're just like, oh, this is a broken man who's never going to win another fight again. And then I see this and I'm like,this is a pretty fucking good matchup for him. Like I thought it was interesting that I heard, apparently Mateus Nicolao PERSON was saying before this fight, he was like, oh, my problem is that I just, I don't throw enough,and I wait for the perfect shot, and I let people do their thing, and that's why I got knocked out by Brandon Royval PERSON. I was like, wow, that was really very introspective for an MMA fighter. I would have thought most MMA fighters would be like, oh, I got knocked out real bad. I got to be more defensive. But the thing is, knowing that something's a problem and actually being able to do something about it are totally different things. And Nicolao PERSON is still just this guy whowill not go first. I feel like it probably sounds like I've been really quite scathing about Nicolao PERSON and talking about this fight. And if that's the case, it's only because Nicolao PERSON is really frustrating because he's so nearly a really good elite fighter and there's just a couple of pieces missing. Alex Perez PERSON is himself somewhat limited.He's not a particularly imaginative striker. He doesn't have wildly varied shot selection or anything. But one thing he does do really well is double up on his jab and switch up at what point he's going to sit down on power shots. And I just couldn't trust someone who waits for counter opportunities against someone who volume jabs into big power combinations.Like the one big shot that Nicolao PERSON landed was like a counter left hook because Perez PERSON got a little froggy and went for like a no set up front kick to the face and got like left hooked while he was getting back to stance. Yeah, most of the fight was just kind of Alex Perez walking Nicola PERSON down with his jab until he got him to the cage and killed him instantly.

Speaker 02539.24s - 2563.88s

Perez PERSON is always going to check to see how good your defense is if you're someone's going to outfight him because if he comes at you and then he's met with the brick wall he's like fuck okay don't know what to do but if he's met with barely any resistance he'll just bully you so he just kind of came forward and nikola didn't have the goods to stop him from coming forward so fres PERSON fucked him up for it

Speaker 12563.88s - 2605.36s

yeah it was good to see Perez PERSON get a win. He's had a real rough run of it lately. And, I mean, for the last few years. And when you see him in a fight like this, you remember, oh, yeah, there was actually a reason people were seriously excited about Alex Perez PERSON as a championship caliber fighter when he was coming up.And again, there's just always been a piece missing, and he's just as one of the most snake-bit careers in MMA ORG history. But he's got on a couple of fights in within a reasonable amount of time now, and he's coming off of a big win over the number five-ranked guy in the division now, so this puts him in a pretty good position if he can keep getting back in there.

Speaker 02605.84s - 2610.86s

And he's setting himself up for a title fight if he wins probably one more.

Speaker 12611.04s - 2615.82s

You know, he could probably fight Brandon Royval PERSON now, and if he wins, he could probably just get a title shot off that.

Speaker 02616.48s - 2618.64s

Bogdan Guskov knocked out Ryan Spann PERSON.

Speaker 12619.62s - 2625.92s

Yeah, the rest of the card was pretty fucking wacky, but it was honestly pretty fun, was not particularly high level

Speaker 02625.92s - 2627.92s

MMA. Spahn PERSON just can't handle a dude

Speaker 12627.92s - 2629.44s

that like jabs okay

Speaker 02629.44s - 2633.86s

and can take his power I just had the vibe

Speaker 12633.86s - 2675.2s

that if Gushkovs PERSON started landing good shots on Spad PERSON he was just going to panic his way into eating much worse shots because Ryan Span just does not have composurewhen he gets hit real hard and does not have the ability to maintain himself and just it all just goes downhill from there. Baghdan Gushkov PERSON, he's like if Roy Jones Jr. PERSON quantum leapedinto Anthony Smith's PERSON body, he's fucking hilarious. He's just that whole like, that whole posture with his chin and just cocking the right hand to just, like, blast a shot real quick. He's a lot of fun. I don't know how actually good he's going to be, but it's light heavyweight and he's got the source.

Speaker 02676.12s - 2677.2s

And that's all you need.

Speaker 12678.16s - 2685.16s

He seems quite funny, too. So, I don't know. Any positive about a light heavy weight I'll take.

Speaker 02686.32s - 2691.2s

Crini Silva PERSON, decisioned Ariana Lipski PERSON. It's a pretty good fight.

Speaker 12691.52s - 2698.88s

Yeah, which I'm going to keep calling her Ariani Lipski PERSON at least just for this, while we're talking about this fight, because I'm not to the silver de Silva is too much.

Speaker 02698.92s - 2701s

I'm going to until they change her typology page.

Speaker 12701.56s - 2790.04s

Yeah, this was exactly what I was talking about where it's like, I know Ariani Lipski's gotten a lot better, but this is the exact kind of matchup that she has struggled horribly with in the past. So it's like howmuch better have you gotten? And it turned out good enough to make the fight pretty close and not get wiped out and stay in there and keep composed and probably land the better shots on the feet throughout the fight.But this is exactly the reason I picked Corrineau Silva is that she actually like times takedowns in open space, which it doesn't sound like a lot. But this is a dynamic. I've talked about tons recently where if you're fighting a striker with decent footwork and a clinch game who is just looking to defend takedowns, then just like tryingto throw into the clinch and work from there just doesn't fucking work against anyone who's actually prepared for that kind of matchup you've got to draw out exchanges and use them to at time shots in open space really test their actual takedown defensebeyond the first layer and beyond the clinch and test their positional grappling when they can't will walk up against the fence and Lipskihung in there, didn't get destroyed, but didn't get enough done either.

Speaker 02791.78s - 2804.2s

Janata Denise PERSON is fine, but he is, it was a very fun fight, but his skill level is to be determined. Not a great look.

Speaker 12804.2s - 2816.1s

He at least didn't lose to Austin Lane PERSON, but he got like smushed from top position for the whole first round. Somehow Austin Lane got more tired from that than Denise PERSON did.

Speaker 02816.22s - 2824.2s

I guess just got athlete for the first time as a good kickboxer versus like an NFL ORG athlete. Yeah.

Speaker 12824.4s - 2867.32s

And then he just got up in the second round and was like, wait, this is stupid. I'm just going to fucking roll up to this dude and hit him. Yeah, Jonathan PERSON, he's a fun banger. He goes hard. He puts great combinations together.He hits fucking hard. No reason to expect big things for him at this point, but it's heavy weight, and I'll take what I can get. David Onama won a very close decision against Jonathan Pierce PERSON because Jonathan Pierce for a guy who is all about like just locking down position and winning fights that way, he sure is bad at holding those positions against someone who can just like strunk him.Like how many times did he just fall off of the back as soon as he got it in this fight?

Speaker 02867.32s - 2882.84s

Like between four and seven, something like that? It was not a, he needs to get better at keeping someone's back. Because Onama PERSON wasn't even doing that many things to get out of it other than just turning really fast. He would just wait until he has the energy and then just turn really fast.

Speaker 12883.78s - 2914s

Yeah, and David Onama PERSON insisted on making it close because he has terrible decision-making for how talented of a fighter he is. And would insist on trying to flex on Jonathan Pierce PERSON in the grappling exchanges and go for stupid counter-scrambles and backtakes of his own and then just also fall off and then just give up top position. But he just landed cleaner, harder shots on the feet throughout the fight. And then they did the Max Holloway thing in the last 10 seconds, and no one landed a single punch. They looked really funny.

Speaker 02914.64s - 2922.84s

I feel like they both landed okay. It's just it looked. Neither guy is good at that type of exchanging.

Speaker 12923.26s - 2940s

Yeah, that's what people don't get about it. When Max Holloway PERSON does it. He doesn't just stand there and just spam left, hook, right, hook, left hook, right. Like, he actually, like, adjusts in the exchange. He moves his feet, and he tries to duke out shots and then time people while they're swinging their stupid shit. He'll hit the body.

Speaker 02941.28s - 2960.08s

Elite swarmer asking you to let him swarm you without even getting to rest against the fence is just asking to die but having a brawl with David Onama Onama's just like oh fuck I'm a counterpuncher normally I guess he'll throw shitty punchesUm

Speaker 12960.08s - 2967s

Oros Medich obliterated Tim Means in the first round because Tim Means PERSON insisted on wrestling

Speaker 02967s - 2971.88s

When he was, he kind of didn't even need to that much He was having good success otherwise

Speaker 12971.88s - 2999.14s

He treated the fight like he absolutely needed to be wrestling And then it got him fucking knocked out He hasn't been actually knocked out Since he thought Nico Price PERSON like five years ago Normally he just gets club and subbed or like hurt repeatedly and pushed out of thefight. But yeah, he just made his intention so clear that he just got times real clean with an uppercut on a takedown attempt in a way that you don't see very often.

Speaker 02999.7s - 3001.3s

You got the UFC ORG game counter.

Speaker 13001.72s - 3025s

It's really hard to hit that timing. Normally people go for NIC because it's a lot broader of a target. It was a slick uppercut. It was a beautiful knockout. I wasn't even really mad or upset aboutthe ritual slaughters of aging fighters on this card because at least they were against cool fighters who did it in neat ways. And at least Hanna Yaya PERSON went to fucking war with Victor Henry PERSON. Honey Yaya fought his fucking ass off. And at least Hanna Yaya went to fucking war with Victor Henry.

Speaker 03025.88s - 3033.48s

Honey Yaya fought his fucking ass off and if Henry PERSON had even 10% worse of a chin, he would have been put on skates three or four times.

Speaker 13034.18s - 3073.9s

Credit to Victor Henry PERSON for actually just having a disciplined performance where he constantly pressed his advantages. He was like, no, I'm not going to just burn time getting stuck in stupid positions on the ground with Hanni Yaya. I'm not going to just burn time getting stuck in stupid positions on the ground with Hanny Yaya PERSON.I'm not going to let him get weird holds on me and just like elbow me from bottom three quarter Nelson PERSON or something. I'm just going to, like he started a little slow because he often does, but there was a point in the fight where he just realized he could just come forward and do all of the slick ass offense he wanted to do and Hanayaya PERSON couldn't do shit about it because he got tired as fuck but he fuckinglike he knew what he needed to do and he

Speaker 03073.9s - 3085.46s

came out to back and he went out on his shield in the first round Hyundai Yayao PERSON's offense lasted for four minutes and then he needed a rest then in the second round it lasted for about three minutes that he needed a rest then by the third round he was fucking cut second round, it lasted for about three minutes that he needed a rest.

Speaker 13085.88s - 3087.56s

By the third round, he was fucking cooked.

Speaker 03087.66s - 3127.6s

Yeah, third round, it lasted for about a minute, and then he was exhausted. And Henry PERSON just got to start throwing it whatever shit he tried. The head kick he got him with was really nice, because he didn'treally whip into it as much. He just aimed to land it and like smacked him in the face of his foot or like the in step. And then he was, because of the way he threw it, he was able to follow up with punchesright after and not have to restance. He just started fucking blasting him. Really nice finishing sequence. And he made the whole fight really exciting. And Honeyaya PERSON, you just can't, you can't just walk throughHoneyaya, you got to fucking got to fight him. And Honeyaya, you just can't, you can't just walk through Honey, you got to fucking gotta fight him.

Speaker 13128.7s - 3134.62s

And then the rest of the cult was what it was. And, you know, the podcast like an hour long now. That's fine. That's enough, right?

Speaker 03135.16s - 3142.94s

Yeah, I mean, I guess Austin Hubbard PERSON, there's an argument that Figlac PERSON won, don't you think?

Speaker 13144.52s - 3146.82s

I thought Hudson Hubbard PERSON won, I think.

Speaker 03146.82s - 3149.96s

But it was close enough

Speaker 13149.96s - 3160.46s

and you know, Austin Hubbard PERSON is the known quantity in Figlac PERSON's the one who needs to be showing massive improvements and he looked like the same guy he looked like in Cage Warriors.

Speaker 03162.12s - 3168.06s

And Kettlinson versus Marduk Man PERSON was surprisingly high action. Yeah, because Ketland Soza versus Marduk Man PERSON was surprisingly high action. Yeah, because Ketland Soza

Speaker 13168.06s - 3226.7s

is really dynamic but has no idea how to control a fight even against someone who she absolutely outclasses. So in a fight that she probably should have won by finish or just like 30, 24 decision,she still let her opponent have enough success for it to be a fun banger.. Chris Padilla got a slick rear naked choke. Gabriel Benitez PERSON kind of got lightly robbed against Mahas Chatebecause he got like youth bullied by a guy who could just eat all of his shots and just reacts a lot worse to getting hit now. Even when he's not getting hurt, he just he knows he can get hurt.I still kind of thought he won, though. He just looked like the more seasoned striker. Yeah, that'll do. That's it. We'll see you guys next week. We'll talk about UFC 301 EVENT.Oh, and probably not talk about UFC Fight Night Derek Lewis versus Hurtrigo Nassimento PERSON. So yeah, peace. Later.