The CBP - Rich Dias - Canadian Risks and Global Trends

Speaker 00s - 322.78s

The Canadian Bitcoins podcast is just two guys and maybe a guest or two discussing Bitcoin, Bitcoin equities, and the related macroeconomic space. It's not meant to be financial advice. So please, if you're doing any investing, after listening to our program, do your own research, do your own due diligence, and understand that any money you invest can be lost. The show is meant for entertainment purposes only only and we hope you enjoy the program.Friends and enemies, welcome back to another, not lonely. It's never a lonely Tuesday night or Wednesday night rip when it's interview night. My name is Joey here tonight with Rich Diaz PERSON. You guys know from the Looney Hour WORK_OF_ART, a podcast that has become very popular, one that Len PERSON and I both listen to and recommend. And many of you guys listen to as well. I can see in the chat here, people talking about the Looney Hour WORK_OF_ART. We have to convert them to Bitcoin. We will get that done at some point.I know we've had Steve and Keith on in the last 12 or so months. Steve, a Bitcoiner for sure. Keith PERSON, like many market mercenaries, doesn't hate anything, but only likes things at the right price. And we'll see what richest thoughts on that are, along with a million other things. A lot going on in the Canadian NORP economy. And we are finding, I think, more and more every day that the place that many Canadiansthought our country occupied in the global market is not quite as stable or quite as status quo. Let's say it's not quite chalk these days as it was before. But we'll get into all that, like I mentioned. First, of course, the sponsors, Easy DNS PRODUCT, the best place for you to buy any kind of domain or VPS service. Guys, Mark PERSON has been around for a long time. He's your friendly neighborhood registrar like he always says.And we use his website or we use, yeah, we use a service for our website, Canadian Bickowners.com. You can head there, find out, you know, what we're up to, what we're thinking, our little research reports, our little schedule for the week. We have some guest writers here and there. All that stuff is available at Eadsdnns.com ORG. You can buy a domain, port a domain, whatever you want. Same thing when it comes to virtual private server stuff. So if you want to run a Bitcoin node,Noster Relay, Nolus implementation, maybe your Hock and Merch ORG, BTC pay server. You want to take the hardest money ever instead of the canoe dollar, which we have up here. Mark PERSON can help you with that too. And of course, all your stuff, privacy focused, PGP and GPG email, big time, big time importance these days. We saw proton mail obviously leaking tons of user data in the name of some kind of investigation,not long ago, but the announcement came today earlier today. So yeah, you want to a registrar who will work with you and keep you private. And of course, you know, as we always talk about all the time, Mark PERSON doesn't like to brag, but you're not going to get taken down. Mark is not worried about cancel culture. Mark is mission focused and realizes that free speech has a place in a functioning democracy. And so all that stuff said, you can go over to EDS, use our code CPP Media or just tell them we sent you. Mark PERSON is thrilled with the business we've been giving them and we're thrilled with the business we've been giving them.And we're thrilled with the partnership, both because if I run into a hiccup with a guest, I can just call him and see if he's got half an hour. Come shoot the shit. And also because he's been a great partner and he's a great Bitcoiner. He's become a friend of ours over the years.So we're happy to be continuing to work with him. Second sponsor, Bull Bitcoin. I think today is the last day. Is it today or tomorrow? We talked about this last night and I still don't remember, but today or tomorrow, the last day for you to buy KYC ORG free Bitcoin at the post office for now. You can go there with your QR code, scan it, post office guy. I'll look at you a little bit puzzled, but it's not your problem.Hand over the cash. And by the time you get home, the cat will be in your Bitcoin account. You can buy it. It's non-custodial. So you don't ever have to worry about the great rugpole that we talk about all the time. You know, anytime you have a custodian involved, you run the risk of law enforcement issues or compliance issues or shotgun KYC or whatever. Well, Bitcoin, I don't have to worry about anything that stuff.You can also just do e-transfer if you want, which I use sometimes. I got to be honest, you know, I'll level with you. I use e-transfer some of my buys if I don't feel like it or I need a quick dopamine hit on a price drop. I just send a couple hundred bucks there. And same story, piece of cake. It's there in a few minutes.And in your Bitcoin wallet a couple hours later. Coin join by default. Everything is private. Of course, that's under attack these days in a lot of places, but they're still doing it, which is outstanding. And if you want to sell your Bitcoin, you can, I don't recommend it, but you can do that. And pay your bills. You want to pay your cell phone bill, property tax, mortgage, university tuition, residents, whatever. They got a listto payees there longer than the Old Testament WORK_OF_ART. And every single one of them, without knowing, probably, will accept your payment from bull Bitcoin vis-a-vis your Bitcoin balance, which is great. So we like that. Use our promo code. I don't know what it is, but the website is I want Bitcoin.ca. If you want to use our promo code, if you haven't signed up already for some bizarre reason.And on your account, you get $21. Help support the show. We like that. You like that. Without further ado, Rich Diaz PERSON, we're talking before the show uh i'm a big fan of whiteboards i don't know that whiteboard's hard to make out what's there the place i workwhich i won't share with the listeners what we've taken to in the last little while is ordering these like uh i guess whiteboard marker friendly office windows do you guys have any of those

Speaker 1322.78s - 335.82s

over there or what no that'd be amazing sadly amazing, sadly. That's a great idea. Maybe next office I'll definitely do that for sure. Although I don't know if I want, I don't know if I like that. I think I'm more of a traditionalist. I think I like the white ones. Just fine. Thanks. I like it. I like it. So I want

Speaker 0335.82s - 353.98s

to thank you for coming on the show. We've been trying to sort this out for a couple weeks now, but this was actually all said, you know, rather simple guest booking. Now, Rich PERSON, like I said in the intro, a lot of people listen to your show, but I know there's a lot of Bitcoiners NORP who listen to our podcast, who don't listen to your show. So maybe tell people a bit about two things. One, who you

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are and two, the Looney Hour WORK_OF_ART. Talk to me a little bit about that. Sure. So I guess I'm a Montreal born and raised, and that's the most important thing for an evening like tonight because we just got the fifth overall draft pick, and thankfully Chicago did not get Macle and Calabrini or Celebrini PERSON, whatever. So I'm very happy about that. I was on tender hooks right before we connected.What you would call a sell side strategist, although I've spent most of my career on the buy side. I cut my teeth at a company called BCA Research in 2008. So I graduated from McGill, June or whatever, May of 2008. And a month later, I was watching the S&P 500 drop, I think, all told, about 40, whatever, 50% PERCENT. You know, big Vol days on the treasury and on theyield curve inverting, watching Ben Bernanke PERSON shake, his handshake as he sort of tried to convince and, you know, to warn the lawmakers that they needed to act. And for the last, Jesus, now 15 or so years, I've been looking at financial markets and global capital markets from a top-down lens. And what that means is sort of from a 60,000 or bird's-eye QUANTITY view, 60,000 foot QUANTITY or bird's-eye view look of the world. So looking at things like, of course, monetary policy,but things like inflation and money supply, labor markets and demographics, earnings, let's say, from the equity side and sector themes and rotations and margins and pricing power, et cetera. And then, of course, there's a little bit of a political tinge to it, but I think that's you generally overstated. But, yeah, I look at the business cycle, CAPEX and productivity and credit cycle is really important. So, like all those different thingsand trying to sort of make sense of it for institutional investors. And like I said, I would spend most of my time on the buy side, and I've had a little bit of experience on the sell side too. So I sort of know both sides of the street and the challenges and constraints that each of them has to deal with. That's a great intro. And do you want to

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tell people a bit about the Looney Hour WORK_OF_ART? The podcast for which you have become, is famous the right

Speaker 1500.38s - 604.8s

word? It might be, buddy. I don't know. Definitely not. When my friends ask, I say that I'm a minor internet celebrity, and I'm happy to, that to me is exactly, I think, where we belong. Hopefully one day, you know, I'll get some Joe Rogan bucks, but for now I'm happy to be part of the Lunar ORG. So we're a triumbrant. And I think we work together well, number one, because I think we're all quite, even though we have quite strong views, we don't take ourselves too seriously. We take the subject matter quite seriously, but we have fun. And obviously you guys, and for people who don't know, it's Steve PERSON Sretzky and Keith Dicker. Keith is a portfolio manager with ICE cap. and Steve is an independent real estate broker. And we, I guess we strive to educate, entertain, and inform Canadians NORP about the global economy, capital markets, and real estate. But always with a view to Canada, Canadian NORPs, Canadian investors, and the impact on Canadian economy, equity market,ball market currency, and of course, monetary policy, and sort of, yeah, really sort of taking, distilling what's going on, what we're seeing in our everyday lives, our day-to-day jobs, and then why it's important to Canadians NORP, how it affects them, identifying some risks and opportunities. But we don't sell anything and we sure don't want to run afoul of the regulators. And so we don't recommend any stocks. But I think if you pay close attention to us, I think you'll know sort of what we're in favor ofor what we're interested in and what we think is appealing and certainly where to sort of avoid some of the pitfalls there are in capital markets because there are many.

Speaker 0605.86s - 669.9s

Yeah, that's a good place to start. We may as well say, you know, this is avoid some of the some of the pitfalls there are in capital markets because there are many. Yeah, that's a good place to start. We may as well say, you know, there's a disclaimer on the front of this show all the time. Nothing I say is financial advice because I'm a fucking moron. Rich PERSON is not a fucking moron. Nothing he says is financial advice either. Okay.So don't get any ideas. Don't get excited. If you buy anything and lose everything, don't come knocking. Okay, I'm not answering the door nor I'm answering any of my DMs. So, Rich PERSON, why don't we start with this? I think it's sort of important to put a little bit of context around where we are now in Canada GPE.It's a country that I think is in a little bit of trouble in a lot of ways, but has some opportunity in other ways and there's some positives and negatives we can discuss. But I think what a lot of Canadians, my age, your age, we're around the same age. I'm 37 this year. You know, how many how many people our age remember what a healthy Canadian NORP economy looked like? And maybe when the last time the Canadian NORP economy was healthy and vibrant? And, you know, in your view, if you don't mind, when do you think that was?And what defines, you know, what defined a healthy Canadian NORP economy at that time?

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So I'll answer the second part first because that's a really tricky question. What defines a healthier, strong Canadian NORP economy? I don't know what that answer is. I think I can answer in some sort of generalities, which is sort of, you know, low unemployment, relatively low inflation, improving per capita GDP or, you know, and improving productivity. So GDP is a gross domestic product. So, you know, in broad strokes,how wealthy individuals are in your economy. Is that growing? Is it steadily growing? A relatively healthy investment environment. Are you seeing capital expenditure or gross fixed capital formation rising? Do you see low credit spreads? Is the credit market and the banking sector relatively healthy? So that's how I would define that more generally. The last time I think that that happened for Canada GPE, which is a much trickier question or to answer, I guess probably, you know, it is cyclical, right?So there's, I mean, part of being in a free market, well, as much as a free market as we can these days, is that it does, you do get swings and roundabouts. I would say it's probably happened you know towards um in the after the depression that people call the great recession so probably in the 2010 1112 era when we're sort of coming out of that and then and before that it was probably umyou know 2,500, 6, 7, 8 in the run up to the Great Recession EVENT or Depression. And then probably, you know, it, and then, and then before, and COVID EVENT, I mean, we had a couple of good decent years. But again, for Canada GPE, there's been some real dislocations that I think have hurt the underlying. And I think a lot of what we saw on as far as top line growth was fools gold, if that makes any sense.

Speaker 0788.24s - 842s

It does. And so this is a good segue into my next question. I'm curious about your thoughts on, you know, how do we get here, Rich PERSON? When I look around, I see a lot of people my age, you know, earning a pretty decent wage, if not a wage that would have been, you know, upper middle class seven, eight years ago, maybe before the pandemic, now struggling to make ends meet.I'm thinking that they, you know, things specifically of them not being able to afford housing, lower family formation, no savings or asset holdings, whether it's equities or, you know, other sort of fixed assets. How do we get here? You know, you said there was some displacement there and there's some, you know, fools gold.What were the mistakes in your view between, you know, I don't know, let's say 20, I don't want to say 2016, but maybe I will say 2016. And now that sort of landed us in the hot water we find ourselves in. Yeah.

Speaker 1842.08s - 861.94s

So I think just like two things going on there. One is the mistake. And I think the main mistake is that the Central Bank of Canada ORG kept interest rates too low for too long. And that is, in my view, a mistake that's apolitical. Make no mistake. We'll get to all the political mistakes. And there are numerous, numerous

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political mistakes, obvious ones, stupid ones. But one of the key, key things that I think we sort of forget is how do we get here? And I think that the real schism or issue or pain point that we've had is really our reaction to the biggest contraction economic activity since the Great Depression EVENT. So the U.S., we forget, you know, had a, I mean, some of us forget, I would recommend you guys watch The Big Short WORK_OF_ART as a really good job explaining sort of how the U.S. got into its financial shitstorm.

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I don't know, a problem, whatever you want to call it. Basically, there was a massive, massive run-up in household debt to GDP. I mean, it started that the GDP was basically stable in the 90s at 60% to GDP, and it ran up all the way to about, I don't know, 100, 100, 102, 103, depending on your sort of source. That, obviously, I'm not going to relitigate the whole great financial crash,but the point is there was a huge, obviously, run-up, then there was debt bubble, and then that deflated, then that deflation. Now, the U.S. GPE spent a lot of money, tried desperately to recapitalize its bust banks. And the mistake really comes in sort of the reactions than other countries did or didn't do. The U.S. GPE kept interest rates very, very, very low. And Canada GPE, and its infinite wisdom, in my view, now there are many smart people who disagreewith this assessment, but this is my view is that once Canada GPE sort of, once we sort of got out of that situation, the Bank of Canada ORG kept interest rates far too low. And really, in, you know, technical terms, was the real rate of inflation. So the interest rate, sorry, the real rate of interest rate. So interest rates, so interest rates adjusted for inflation were effectively negative.And they were negative for a very, very long time. And you say, Rich PERSON, why is that important? Because what it did was it disincentivized one thing, and it really juiced what I think every Canadian NORP will recognize is a problem, is it really juiced the housing market. And it disincentivized allocating capital to other parts of your economy. And you'll say, why that? Because effectively, when you have negative, real interest rate, you are in theory and sometimes in practice,effectively paid to borrow, which makes sense. An interest rate is when you pay to borrow.

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And if it's a negative, that means you are basically getting paid to own and hold that liability. And what that does is it

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basically, it forces, doesn't force, I should say, it incentivizes people to take on increasingly high leverage to, and why not? Because you're getting paid to hold that asset. And so what that does is it reinforces, you know, the speculative fervor, which then encourages people to take on more debt, which it really forces the speculative fervor and around and around we go. And we see different examples of this.A negative real interest rate, you could argue, is what caused the housing bubble in Spain and in Ireland GPE. In Canada GPE, I think it's absolutely partly and partly to blame. There's other reasons, of course, to why, but that's that's the only part. And the more recent example is when it happened in Ireland, in Canada GPE, I think it's absolutely partly and partly to blame. There's other reasons, of course, to why, but that's that's that only part. And the more recent example is when it happened in Germany GPE, more recently, you know, Germany's basically had flat housing prices for 30 years.And then they, you know, in order to deal with COVID and a bunch of other stuff, they kept interest rates really low. And what did people do? They piled into real estate and homes in Berlin basically doubled over the over two years. And so there's lots of stuff going on and I'll pass it over to you. But to me, one of the how we got here was really the negative real interest rates at a time. So basically the wrong policy prescription for a countrywho didn't have that debt deflation and the bust banks that the US GPE did.

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So what is a relationship in your view between this sort of a political policy of interest rates and the political response? You know, ideally, I think, although it's maybe not sort of, you know, in stone tablets anywhere, I think there's a little push and pull between central banks and the political bodies in these countries where one can get carried away and cause damage without the other checking it in some way or shape or form. So where was the political response? Why thelack of political response or the wrong political response? Give me some details there. What was the

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issue? So carrying on our history lesson, I promise I won't bore you too badly with that, which is... Listen, once...

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Bitcoiners love this stuff, Rich PERSON.

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This is all our book. So once, you know, so many countries de-levered after 2008. The U.S.'s household debt to GDP is now at 73%. You know, Spain's household debt to GDP, if I can remember, peak at like 90 and is now 48%. Ireland GPE, if you can believe, peaked at about 118 or whatever percent of GDP and its household debt is nowat 26% of GDP. Don't get me wrong. These were painful, internal, and in some cases, external evaluations. But the point is, so Canada GPE, in that, you know, we just carried on and our household debt started to continue to rise. Now, you know, there was some decent and so this is in my view purely a function of that speculation around housing.And can you blame people? I mean, we had, there was no dislocated. Like as we watched American house prices collapse, whether it was in Las Vegas or or, you know, in California, New York GPE, whatever, you know, house prices in Canada GPE just kept on going. And it became an, sort of the only real way to generate that, any kind of wealth and to transfer it to your kids and whatever. That housing bubble has a lot of issues because it soaked up an incredible amount of capital away from other industries. So when you look at GDP, you know, you have your government consumption,you have your household consumption, and then you have your investment. And within your investment, under that umbrella, you have like residential investment and non-fix capital formation or non-rezi investment. And, you know, and you could see in Canada GPE's case, we just never corrected like the U.S. So the U.S. you know, peaked and then started to correct the people asset allocated money away from residential and into the non-rezi space. Canada GPE just kept ongoing.And why not? House prices kept on going. This led to a couple of our jurisdictions being some of the most expensive house prices in the world. So demographia ORG, which is a source you can look up online, has a great website and they rank, you know, hundred, literally hundreds of cities all over North America and Europe and Asia and whatever. And I think Vancouver and Toronto GPE are at the top of this very, very extensive table. And so, so then fast forward, so that's where we sort of were. And then, you know, then you get into a situation where COVID happens. Now, I don't really, really don't want torelitigate the sense of whether or not we should have locked down children in order to save old people. I have like PTSD from COVID, so I really try to stay away from it. But I will highlight one huge, huge mistake that the central bank of Canada GPE did. And although they will never admit it, I would say privately they probably really admit it was when, number one, they monetized all of the debt that was issued in the first, I can't remember exactly how many, but let's say two years.So what does monetizing mean? So when the central bank, when the central government issues debt, the government and the Bank of Canada ORG basically printed money.

Speaker 01302.68s - 1313.4s

Yes, they printed money and absorbed all of the debt. Now, if you follow me on Twitter, which is sorry, a shameless plug, Joey, so forgive me, but it's at Richard Diaz PERSON. This is your pin tweet.

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I think you can talk about here. Yeah, this is my pin tweet.

Speaker 01315.24s - 1342.88s

That's exactly right. And that's why I'm clicking on. So between, I think, March of 2020 to basically in the end of 2021, you know, the bank, the government of Canada issued something like $400 billion of Canadian NORP, of debt, which is whatever, neither here nor there. And you can agree or disagree on whether or not that was well spent. That, to me, is less important than my next point, which is the Bank of Canada ORG absorbed all of that debt.

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And so that's, and then, so that's mistake number one, because it basically said to, it gave the signal to the Bank of Canada GPE, to the government of Canada, excuse me, that deficits don't matter and that there are, there's no consequences with respect to interest rates and crowding out another investment. That's mistake number one. And mistake number two is that Tiff Macklin PERSON said to everybody that interest rates would be low for, and I quote, a very long time. And so after years of speculation in the housing market, after keeping interest rates for below inflation for a long time or add inflation for a very, very long time, having allocated as much of GDP to residential investment as we did on par with the Ireland and the Spain's in the U.S. GPE during their bubble time, after we know that housing valuationsare totally a stratospheric compared to every other major economy in the world, at that point, in his infinite wisdom, he told Canadians NORP effectively, we're not going to raise interest rates. And what, you know, after you train this hamster to run on this wheel, what do you say? You stick just yet another piece of cheese. And so we went into absolute overcharge over over. We went overdrive.And so Canadians NORP borrowed even more money, sending our household debt to GDP to sort of an all time high of 110 or whatever percent, and basically dumping in all that money into housing. Now, the problem is, sorry, Joe PERSON, I'm going on and on, forgive me.

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This is good.

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The problem is that those Canadians NORP, listening to their central bankers, did a lot of this stuff on variable mortgages. Variable mortgages. Now, do you remember the whole fiasco about how inflation was going to be transitory

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and how much of a fantastic lie that was?

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I will, thank God I have the receipts on Twitter, and I wrote about it at the time. It was never going to be transitory. You can't spend that much money. You can't have the central banks print as much money or monetize it or quantitative easingor whatever fancy words you want to use. And have massive, massive supply shocks all at the same time and think that that's just going to dissipate. The other point is that Mount Everest LOC is transitory. Okay. Like in 400 million years from now, Mount Everest LOC will be a molehill. And so it's asinine to tell working class peoplethat we're going to have 10% or 15% of inflation, but don't worry, it's temporary. That's the political element. The point we're trying to get to today is how did we get to the situation where you have consumer confidence of young people at basically all-time lows. You have per capita GDP growth shrinking for seven years. You have, you know, real retail sales adjusted for the number of people flat over X amount of time. It's because we basically are dealing with the tide now going out.

Speaker 01521.78s - 1526.34s

And, you know, a different way of saying that is we are effectively dealing

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with a balance sheet recession. So inevitably, that higher inflation, which was not transitory, which was sticky for, in my view, very obvious reasons, namely shelter. Once that proved to the powers that be that it was, in fact, not transitory, they were compelled to raise interest rates. And the key thing is that they have to stay up there in order to destroy demand sufficient to lower inflation at or below their target, which is their mandate. Now, you can question the wisdom to that mandate. That's a different subject for a different day. But that is sort of where we're at. So now we aredealing with a balance sheet recession. For some people who don't know a balance sheet recession, and you'll forgive me again if I'm going on, but just to really round it home, and then we can switch gears or what have you. A balance sheet recession,I had it pulled up here because I think it's always good to just look up the day. Is basically when, and I think is a type of economic recession that occurs when high levels of private sector debt cause individuals or companies to collectively focus on saving by paying down their debt rather than spending or investing. And I would pause at, Joey, that that sounds

Speaker 01598.32s - 1657.4s

very familiar. That's a great explanation. And to your first time guest, I appreciate when the guests roll downhill. It's when we get the best content. And, you know, to your first time guest, I appreciate when the guests roll downhill. It's when we get the best content. And, you know, I am not a triumvirate. And so, you know, as much as I enjoy listening to the Looney Hour, oftentimes you don't get uninterrupted 15 minutes like that. It was great. Now, a couple of questions for you about some of the stuff you've talked about there.Number one, this idea that Canadians received guidance from Tiff Maclum PERSON and, you know, famously the interest rates were at historic lows Glenn PERSON and everyone's heard these comments and whatnot over the years. What is the, you know, in your view, Central Banks ORG have a role to play in terms of guidance, but the guidance is meant to be intentionally vague to prevent extraordinary risks from being taken, et cetera, et cetera. Is there a time when central bank guidance of that kind has been a positive for an economy? I can't think of one.And I don't know if you can. I'd be curious to hear if you can think of an example. I can.

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I can. I think that so Mario Draghi PERSON, I think is a perfect example of how that can be really good.

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Draghi is ECB ORG, right?

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Mario Draghi was the ECB president during the Euro LOC area crisis. And for as much as much disdain as I have for central bankers generally, I would say he's probably one of the few exceptions to prove the rule. Because what he was doing, in a sense, was basically fighting against speculators. And what he needed to do was convince, whether it's, excuse me,speculators or the market or whatever, that he had infinite, he had the infinity bazooka, Huey PERSON infinity. And him saying that he was going to do whatever it takes to support the eurois one way of sort of quelling the sort of either risk or speculation or worries or whatever it is or bank runs or you know whatever it is on financial assets which are key to you know the general functioning of our financial and capital markets. Now, the mistake that I think that a lot of people did in COVID EVENT was they compared to me, they treated COVID and the policy and the financial, everything, like the U.S. in 2008. The U.S. GPE banks were bust. The U.S. had to recapitalize all of itsbanking system. Now, you say it's fair or unfair that they did that. That was the reality. And they were dealing with a banking sector sort of basically being disintegrated and a severe banking balance recession. That is not what we were dealing with in COVID EVENT. COVID EVENT was a supply shock. It was an acute dislocation in demand. And what they should have done in my view, and I think a lot of smarter peoplehave me said this was just simply provide liquidity. But they went above and beyond just simply providing liquidity. So what does liquidity mean? It means just providing infinity money at a discount window. And there's a difference between a solvency issue, which is what 2008 was, which is when you're insolvent and they need to recapitalize your entire banking system and a liquidity issue, liquidity issue, which is what I think 2008 was. And so they wentfull on, they just used the playbook of a banking sector solvency problem, which is also what happened in 2010, 11, 12 or whatever in Europe LOC. But they treat the liquidity issue with a solvency sort of pill and a solvency, you know, remedy. And I think that that's why you've had all the problems that we have. And bringing it back to Canada GPE, you know, remedy. And I think that that's why you've had all the problems that we have. And bringing it back to Canada GPE, you know, you eventually a speculative bubble will burst. Now, it may take a lot longer than expected. I was totally wrong about Canada GPE's housing market.I thought it was going to collapse under its own way years ago. Had you asked me 10 years ago if the housing bubble would have, you know, lasted 10 years? No, I was spectacularly wrong. Going forward now, I think you're starting to seal the real strains on the economy. And it's because I said to you before, which is housing with individuals and companies, after having accumulated incredible amounts of debt, when interest rates rise, they now have to reallocate that disposable income.Instead of investing or saving, they allocated to to reallocate that disposable income instead of investing or saving, they allocated to servicing the debt. And we didn't even talk about the population piece, but that's like that adds complexity

Speaker 01872.02s - 1926.12s

to what is already kind of a screwed up situation. We should talk about it. I think one of the threads that a lot of people have trouble connecting is the linkage between Canadian NORP economic health, what we'll call it. This is sort of a blanket term, but there's no better term for the moment. And housing prices.There seems to be an unwillingness on the part of both politicians and central banks, as you mentioned. There seems to be an unwillingness to raise rates in a time where maybe they probably still should be or could be over here. And this idea that housing prices need to become more affordable, but no one ever really talks about how they want to truly decrease the value of your home by 20 or 30 or more percent PERCENT. Why is that rich?What is the linkage as far as a central banker is concerned or a government is concerned here in Canada between home values and the broader Canadian NORP economic picture.

Speaker 11927.02s - 1939.44s

So I think there's like three points there, if I may. One is central bankers and what's their job? So I would submit to you that the central banker's job is not to worry about house prices unless they're absolutely forced to.

Speaker 01939.68s - 1940.5s

Are they there now?

Speaker 11940.76s - 2005.5s

I think so personally, although I think that's probably a minority view. The central bank's job in Canada. The U.S. GPE has a dual mandate, which is full employment, which is a nebulous term, and inflation. In Canada, we have a single mandate. In the UK GPE, it's a single mandate, whatever. So that's the first thing. The central bank also has a macro prudential duty. It's notnecessarily a mandate. I would say it's a different word. You pick whatever word you want. Responsibility, job. It's not a specific mandate. You know what I'm saying? Their job is to sort of keep an eye on things and when things hit the fan, they should step in, which I think is very sensible. So, for example, if the six banks in Canada will collapse, then their job is, I think, as a Senator Banker PERSON, come in and make sure everything goes okay. The housing affordability piece, I think, I think it is a lie to say that politicians want affordable housing. And now the reason I think I use that language is because what is affordable housing?Affordable housing means, as you said it it is a collapse in prices of what?

Speaker 02006.4s - 2048.54s

10 to 20, 30, 50 percent. I think it's 50. Yeah, depending on where you are. And we know, as a state, we know, because everybody's told this, it's on Twitter ORG, it's on the central bank website itself, that household, house prices relative to income or relative to rents are either at all-time highs, equivalent to some of the bubble territories that we know of in Ireland, Spain, the U.S. GPE, whatever, household prices to rent are off the charts, again, really, really high. And so we know that there must be just a real, like a sort of recalibration.And a recalibration is house prices relative to some denominator. Now, the denominator could be rent.

Speaker 12048.92s - 2050.44s

The denominator can be income.

Speaker 02050.88s - 2052.62s

But in any way you shape or four,

Speaker 12052.72s - 2054.26s

it means that the prices of your house,

Speaker 02054.36s - 2060.32s

either the income needs to go up by a lot or the rents need to go up by a lot or the house prices need to fall.

Speaker 12061.38s - 2078.48s

And I don't think that that's a vote winner. I think that if tomorrow house prices, I mean, as a stupid example, Justin Trudeau PERSON is massively behind in the polls. If house prices fell tomorrow by 50% and housing was affordable in Canada GPE, do you think that would help him or hurt

Speaker 02078.48s - 2087.4s

him in the polls? The answer is. I hate to say it. There's an awful lot of people who would support that. I don't know whether it's true though. Like I think, you know, I don't know.

Speaker 12087.5s - 2098.82s

I mean, this is, we only have an hour, but I think that, you know, you'd be talking about, no, no, don't apologize. I just want to note that like, and I think you probably share this view if I, if I pressed you on it. Yeah.

Speaker 02099.26s - 2105.52s

The odds that some policy like that are a significant decrease in home prices would be harmful for him

Speaker 12105.52s - 2119.68s

in the polls. I'm not a thousand percent sure. Would you bet? Would you bet your life on that? I don't think I would. No, I think you make a really good point, which is we are at such an, okay, so you're right. Actually, I'll take it back. I'll take it back. So maybe if I may,

Speaker 02119.68s - 2136s

just as I tap dance a little bit here. What I'll say is, under normal circumstances, a politician does not want to be on the watch. I'm responsible for a house price decline of such a magnitude. I think that that's fair to say. Yes.

Speaker 12136.64s - 2138.44s

And so just as a rule.

Speaker 02138.74s - 2139.6s

And so, you know,

Speaker 12139.72s - 2247.58s

and I think that that's a really important thing that we sort of have to sort of wrap our heads around. Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not that cynical. I think how there are a really important thing that we sort of have to sort of wrap our heads around. Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not that cynical. I think how there are situations where a politician can make concrete, active, positive contributions to making housing more affordable. For example, even though I'm not a big fan of the previous prime minister of New Zealand GPE for her COVID stance, they changed a bunch of zoning rules and a bunch of other stuff.It's too smart for me. But the reality is they made an active decision at the federal level and it absolutely helped with supply and has basically taken the edge off of what was an extremely, extremely hot housing market in New Zealand GPE. At the more local level, we know that Austin, Texas GPE, has had declining rents in one of the highest, the fastestgrowing cities in America GPE, rents are either, if they're not declining, they're basically very low, unstable, and you say, how could one of the richest, fastest growing cities in America GPE, super geared up to tech,have low and not very low or reasonable rent growth. It's because there was sensible local government that changed supply rules and zoning rules and etc., etc. So it is possible, and I think you're right and I was wrong in the sense that it's not clearly always one way or the other.I would say, though, just to really round out the Canadian NORP piece, if I may, which is our dear leader did the exact opposite, which is they, by running budget deficits, that's obviously inflationary, especially when it's above, you know, GDP growth. And two, they increased population growth at the highest level in 45 years,

Speaker 02247.74s - 2249.38s

95% of which is immigration.

Speaker 12250.36s - 2292.28s

And then once that people like me highlighted that, hey, maybe that like immigration's number is ridiculous and totally, totally off the scale, you know, they squawked and said people like me, who by the way, my father is an immigrant to this country, who also happens to be African NORP, is racist for pointing that out. You know, it squawked and said people like me, who, by the way, my father is an immigrant to this country, who also happens to be African, is racist for pointing that out.You know, it took them two years and getting destroyed in the polls before they finally sort of realized that you cannot increase your population by immigration to this degree with no subsequent housing starts and not have massive, massive impacts on rent, which leads into inflation, and then housing prices, which, you know, hurts the pull them in the polls and consumer confidence, et cetera, et cetera.

Speaker 02293.64s - 2366.92s

This is, like, it's become such a huge problem. I'm curious about your thoughts on like, and this is a debate I've had a little, you know, in my personal life here, this idea that zoning can make a big difference. When I think about the way we do zoning as far as single family, you know, in my personal life here, this idea that zoning can make a big difference. When I think about the way we do zoning as far as single family, multifamily apartments and condo style stuff here and like, I'm in Dundas near Hamilton and in the GTA GPE. And one of the things I think is like no one is really speculating that much on stuff likecondos around here. But the single family dwellings are, they're astronomically priced completely out of whack in need of recalibration like you mentioned. The zoning more for multifamily really help with that. I don't know.And I'm kind of just talking into the ether here because I'm not sure if it makes a difference in like the single family home thing, which would solve a lot of our problems. The population growth thing, you know, I don't know what to say about that. And maybe we can shift gears to narrative here. I, you know, I've been following you for some time and Luniar ORG forsome time. And I appreciate that you guys speak not only about data, but also about some of the more intangible elements of government, I was going to say control, rich, but it's not control.

Speaker 12367.12s - 2368.76s

It's influence. Okay, it's influence.

Speaker 02370.26s - 2422.46s

The levers that usually work for convincing an electorate that certain policies are working or not working or maybe working better than they actually are or not quite as bad as they actually are, they seem to be failing in a lot of ways. And because of shows like yours and I think shows like mine and other shows that are doing sort of independent research looking at data that's publicly available, there's become, there's a problem now with narrative control.And I want to point out to people something I mentioned on the show a while ago and something you guys, I think honestly didn't give enough credence to on Looney Hour WORK_OF_ART. There's ministers, federal ministers deciding that the best use of their time is meeting with Sureski PERSON to discuss what, am I crazy that that's like not maybe the most effective use of time without like, you know, going after the sort of merits of that idea on the ground floor.

Speaker 12422.46s - 2427.9s

Yeah, but like, you know, I like Steve PERSON, he's fine, but like, why you're going to, like,

Speaker 02427.9s - 2457.34s

you really have time to meet with Saretki PERSON about policy positions and communication? Why not just come up with better policy? Tell me a bit about your view on narrative control for modern governments. We can stay in Canada GPE if you want, you can go anywhere you like. I think this is a big story that if you're not in sort of the millennial age group or younger, you don't even appreciate how important this is as far as garnering support in anyone under 40. I mean, okay, so yeah,

Speaker 12457.34s - 2462.58s

there's lots to unpack there. First of all, I love Steve PERSON. Steve, a guest on this show once

Speaker 02462.58s - 2467.24s

a time at a time. I listen to him every week. Our minister should be so lucky to spend time with him.

Speaker 12467.5s - 2476.34s

And anything he says about real estate is great. No, I mean, the zoning thing, I would never, that's totally outside of my space.

Speaker 02476.64s - 2506.14s

The reason I brought up the New Zealand GPE piece is just because it's like very, very clear. They had a huge housing bubble, huge debt, they changed zoning laws, and then all that stuff changed. And so, and it's a recent example. It's a small open economy like ours. It's, you know, Anglo NORP-Sax. There's lots and their same kind of laws. You know what I mean? There's like loads and loads of comparables, which is why I think it is possible. You can't have it. But in general, I don't know anything aboutzoning. And so maybe I should sort of stick to my netting. The narrative piece, I think that is possible. You can't have it. But in general, I don't know anything about zoning. And so maybe I should sort of stick to my netting.

Speaker 12506.86s - 2670.18s

The narrative piece, I think that's a fascinating sort of conversation. I think that, man, I don't know. I'm trying not to get in trouble. I think I don't want to fucking talk about COVID. But I think COVID, I think COVID plus the internet, plus your right,shows like yours and maybe I wouldn't give us that much credit, but maybe shows like mine. I think it changed something in people, it broke something in people's brains. And I think that they have the mainstream media, and I hate using that term,have only themselves to blame. Because when, you know, their job, as they always tell us, is to speak truth to power. And I think that they're, they're derelict in two very consequential and important duties. And I think most, one of the most, there was a recent article, an op-ed by this guy who used to be one of the senior editors at npr and i would just suggest people go and google it of how newsrooms in generalhave been co-opted by certain political ideologies and this whole diversity you know fell short at the diversity of thought and then you you throw in sort of, you know, the real, in my view, hard disagreements about COVID policy, plus, as you say, you know, finding this on other mainstream media. But the real thing is that once people understood that the media was wrong about very, very important topics, let's just stick to economics so that I don't get in trouble. Things like transitory, inflation being transitory.You know, the government said inflation is going to be transitory, and no one in the media thought to say, well, what if you're wrong? Like, what if it's not transitory? Or first of all, what the hell does transitory even mean? That doesn't mean anything. And can you please explain to us and what if you're wrong?And I think that you're right. The narrative and the willing, the ability to control that narrative, I think has slipped out of their grasp. And I think that that's why there's some, there's, there's laws in the books in Scotland, Ireland, the UK, certainly Australia and Canada with Bill C63 LAW, that's trying desperately to outlaw hate crimes and online hate speech. And in my view, it is a very sort of thinly veiled swipe at people who don't, Joey, speak the right narrative, don't have, don't say the right things at the right time andthe support the narrative. I don't know what you think about that. I'm curious, sort of,

Speaker 02670.24s - 2785.56s

but your thoughts. I have a number of thoughts. Some of them I'll share with you now, sir. My big concern has always been, and, you know, Rich PERSON, operating in the Bitcoin space, the barrage is not stopped, buddy. Everything I do is akin to money laundering, terrorist financing, child trafficking, you name it. Everything that I appreciate about Bitcoin as an asset and as a monetary sort of ethosshould be outlawed band and I should be hung in the public square for supporting it or speaking about it. And speaking about it is important. The same way that speaking about transitory inflation is important. The same way that speaking about COVID policy is important. No one is saying that these decisions are easy, but that necessitates debate.And the problem we have here in Canada GPE, and I think in the countries you mentioned, some of them worse than others, more severe than others, notably prison colony, Australia GPE, and a few other places in the world. The issue is that there's a certainty among the legacy media that they are correct and their sources are infallible, and they need those sources to continue feeding them information because there's a sort of parasitic relationship between information, access, and narrative.And this has caused problems for us in Canada GPE. You know, many people have talked about and noted this support a kind term in my view. The CBC receives from the taxpayer, you know, papers like the Toronto Star ORG, whose stock, if it was any lower, it would be in Beelzebub PERSON's living room. People don't actually support these things with their dollars or their attention, and yet theyare fed to us constantly on the back of the insanely high taxes we pay in this country. That's one problem I have. The other problem I have is that, as you mentioned, there, thinly veil the tax on what I think are ultimately free speech principles. You know what I think are ultimately free speech principles.

Speaker 12786.18s - 2790.38s

You know what I mean? Ultimately free speech principles. Rich, how long is it going to be until we see

Speaker 02790.38s - 2885.4s

inflation? This is a hypothetical, okay? But it sounds like you and I agree that inflation may not go away anytime soon. Some of these things are going to become larger problems. Under the veil of societal unity, am I going to be allowed to suggest that people exit the cat in favor of Bitcoin? Or is that going to be something that causes a fracture and someone's going to come to my door or take down my channel or whatever and tell me I can't say that? Are you going to be allowed to suggest that perhaps some of the policies from the central bank were inflammatory on the inflation side?Central Bank ORG were inflammatory on the inflation side. And there was people in the room who knew what they were saying was untrue and they said it anyways and then went back on it, you know, blighting millions of Canadian NORP homeowners, millions of Canadians NORP who own small businesses, work for small businesses. Is that going to be allowed or is it going to be, you know, is there going to be a focused effort to collapse that subsection of doubting society in to be, you know, is there going to be a focused effort to collapse that subsection of doubting society in favor of, you know, like I said, unity among the citizenry.I'm not convinced, Rich, given what happened over the last four years, that these things are impossible. And anything that's a non-zero chance deserves consideration and caution. There needs to be a cautious eye paid to these things. You guys, if I had Michael Geist PERSON on your show, I would love to talk to him at some point about this stuff.But that's a good voice to follow on these things. He's very balanced. He's a legal professional, a lawyer by trade. And there's a lot of people who are smarter than you and I on those topics. But for us to be coming at this from a different angle than those guys and see the same problems is telling, I think.Not enough Canadians NORP know about this stuff and they're not paying enough attention to it.

Speaker 12886.04s - 2902.42s

So on the Canadian NORP buying or selling anything, I won't touch that with a temple pole. I will tell you that Tiff MacLam PERSON is one of my least favorite people. And I think the reason he is is because he should have known better.

Speaker 02903.6s - 2907.56s

And I think that he should have been fired, basically.

Speaker 12908.76s - 2913.86s

He, you know, one mistake is enough, hoovering up all the debt.

Speaker 02914.04s - 2914.86s

That's one mistake.

Speaker 12915.32s - 2919.52s

The second mistake was telling people interest rates are going to be low for a long time.

Speaker 02919.92s - 2920.68s

Unusually clear.

Speaker 12920.88s - 3086.04s

Unusually clear in the middle of a speculative bubble. And the third reason why you should... I know it's difficult. I shouldn't ask for people to lose their jobs and certainly do... Shouldn't do in such a public forum, but I believe it. And I'm sorry.And the whole transitory thing. One of those things would have been bad enough to do all three is, I think, a fireball offense. I will give him credit, though, that since that cock up, he's been quite, quite, I think he's held the line.I think he had to come to Jesus PERSON moment as a central banker and has held the line because I can tell you, every single central bank press conference, everyone's constantly asking him to cut rates, and he hasn't done. So maybe, you know, he can be changed.That's on that piece, you know, who knows what happened. On the narrative thing, I think you're right. I mean, you know, I'd rather ascribe stupidity rather than malice. I think, you know, a lot can be explained really rather stupidity and cowardice. And I think a lot of what you discussed really is sort of cowardice from the, from the, from whether it's from the mainstream media or or people who shouldknow better and so whether it's you know a concerted concentrated effort by a bunch of very organized people i'm always quite reluctant to to give them that credit and maybe that's my arrogance and me thinking they're smart i'm smarter than them but i will say to you that I think Canadians NORP do need to talk about this. And I would say that back to your original question is like, what do you think is going to happen or is it too late or whatever? I don't think it's too late.I think that sort of the cat's out of the bag. I think that people have realized that they've been lied to and the people who are supposed to stand up for them and speak truth to power and challenge the narratives, I think, have sold them out on a numerous, numerous number of subjects. Some I darenot mention now. Again, let's stick to the political, let's stick to the stuff I do know about the energy transition. Oil's not going away. The viability of renewable energy. Virtually all totally bogus, in my view.Nuclear power as a substitute. Why are we building wind farms when we could build nuclear power? You know, I mean, the transitory thing. I mean, there's loads of economic ones that I'll, again, try to stick to my lane, these narratives that I think are just EVs as like an appropriate substitute. Don't get me wrong.I think in 150 years from now, there probably won't be any internal combustion engines riding around. Banning them by 2032 is insane. So, and so I think you're right. And I think the issue is you've got just one last piece on this narrative thing. I think you have the laptop class, which I can't remember who I heard that.

Speaker 03086.58s - 3087.72s

I love that. I love that term.

Speaker 13087.98s - 3265.32s

But they are in charge of the media. You know, if you only go into journalism, if your parents are basically rich and, you know, you're from a big city. And I think what happened is along the lines, again, not to be too political, but left wing used to be working class and used to espouse working class values and it used to be the people who led the working class, I think were from unions or they were engineers or they were coal miners and they were salt of the earth working class people who understood that fighting crime is important.working class people who understood that fighting crime is important, that, you know, education and success comes through hard work and individual responsibility. Those are not right-wing ideals. Those are left-wing, almost Trotskyite NORP types of ideals, do you know what I mean? And somewhere along the line, whether it's because interest rates were kept too low for too long, the media has abdicated its responsibility to fight for those type of people. And instead of being sort of voices or megaphones for the downtrodden, they are now, instead of sort of receiving the message and projecting it outward, they are now projecting downwards as to what they think is the right way society should be organized. And their view ultimately is that they're smarter than we are and that their decisions arebetter or more thoughtful and whatever. And I think that that schism, in my view, has been permanently, maybe that's hopeful. So forgive me, Joe PERSON, if I'm, maybe I'm projecting sort of some hope here into the conversation. I think that that schism has been permanently dislocated. And that's a permanent situation. And until, you know, journalists realize that, you know, if you really care about working class people, you really care about, then you should be talking about, you know,drug crime and gun crime and good schools that focus on fundamentals and inflation rather than haughty, exciting, and sort of navel-gazy things. There's another angle, which is we're a post-material world, which is it's boring to talk about job security and health care. And what's exciting is to talk about climate change and a bunch of other sort of, you know, sort of more philosophical debates that we're going through. But really, I think ultimately, you know, my parents are working class people. My mother has hardly any education. My father came to this country with nothing. And so even though I'm a finance bro and I went to McGill and I worked in London,I know exactly where I come from. My mother was a cleaning lady, you know? She was a cleaning lady for 30 years. And so, or not 30 years, but a while anyways. And, you know, I know what the struggle is those people go through. And I can tell you it is not what the Toronto Star ORG is writing about.That's well put.

Speaker 03265.62s - 3340s

I'm always interested in hearing, you know, people who, again, like there's a lot of people, Rich PERSON, who, as you mentioned, would say, like, this guy doesn't get it. He's, you know, working in finance. He's focused on all the wrong things. But there's a growing number of people on what used to be really deep societal fault lines, you know, like you mentioned there, the kind of working man versus the laptop class. There's a lot of laptop class people who appreciate that there's a problem and the working man appreciates there's a problem. Andone of the things I have hope for going forward is that these kinds of unlikely bedfellows will continue to, you know, continue to bear fruit in a lot of ways. These relationships and these new communities that are forming, thanks to stuff like Twitter and podcasts and whatnot, you know, they're going to keep coming. And I don't think Elon PERSON, for all his faults,is ever going to really shut out free speech on that platform the way his predecessor did. Now, I want to be cautious of your time here. You've been a great guest. And, you know, as I did with Keith PERSON and, uh, as we've done in the past, you know, all the stuff you said for 55 minutes, great. But no one honestly who's listening gives a shit about any of that. They want to know what you think about Bitcoin. And, uh, I want toknow what you think about Bitcoin. Tell me, what is your Bitcoin view, man? I could tell you,

Speaker 13340s - 3355.56s

I am a no-coiner. Uh, so I think, um, and don't get me wrong, I regret that decision. One day offline, I'll tell you a story about in 2011, I bought Bitcoin to buy, let's just say.

Speaker 03355.88s - 3357.3s

Sure, elicit substances.

Speaker 13357.54s - 3358.72s

Like everyone did, you know?

Speaker 03358.72s - 3373.28s

And so I may or may not have smoked $70,000 worth of weed at one point in my life. So that's my claim to fame with regarding Bitcoin. I think that, I think, how about this? I have no idea where it's going. I can tell you I love it.

Speaker 13373.88s - 3515.86s

And the reason I love it is because of the things that we all talk about. I'm a pure, I love free markets. I think that they are the greatest way to emancipate the working class. I think that the more and more you get involved from a government standpoint, when you're outside of your remit, I think the worse it is for price discovery and for appropriately and efficiently allocating capitaland improving and creating the productive products and services that we do have to always to improve working class people. And I think what I love about Bitcoin is that it sort of gets back to sort of those root, those pure play roots. And so I cheer for it. I really, really do cheer for Bitcoin. I want it to succeed where, and although I have my doubts because of the regulatory power and the monopoly of violence that governments have, I think that the more it is regulated, it loses some of that sort of idealistic luster. However, I do think that that's how you basically make it so that it never goes away, if that makes sense.you basically make it so that it never goes away, if that makes sense. But I will say that liquidity, I think, has a real part to play in it. So, for example, if central bankers ever have a come-to-Jesus moment and they start to soak up a lot of the liquidity that they've spent the last 10 years pumping into the system, I think it'll be very, very difficult for Bitcoin that does not have the infrastructure, the way an interact card has,to maintain its value. And not value, but it's practical usage. But so I think that there's sort of two sort of opposing forces. And who will win, I would say, forgive me, Joey, I can't really answer that. But you's sort of two sort of opposing forces and who will win, I would say, forgive me, Joe PERSON. I can't really answer that. But you have sort of the liquidity and that I think is inevitable to come out of the system over a little while, although it's taking longerthan I would have guessed. And sort of the use case that I think, and they're both sort of fighting one. So the use case where Bitcoin starts to accelerate and pace, and it becomes ubiquitous and efficient, far more efficient than it is now, because I think you would agree that Bitcoin's not exactly super efficient when buying a chocolate bar or whatever.

Speaker 03515.86s - 3516.14s

Certainly.

Speaker 13517.52s - 3568.22s

And then versus sort of the liquidity regulatory thing. And I think that that's what that is the fight we're watching, you know? And I know who I'm cheering for. I'm cheering for Bitcoin, but I'm cognizant of sort of thecognizant of sort of the, it's an uphill battle. I would also think that the other thing I think people, sorry, one last thing on Bitcoin, I think that people, you know, and you might not like this, but genuinely believe it, so I have to share. You know, like in 1905, there must have been like 100 car companies. And, and, and, and, you know, now there's what, 20 or 10, you know, or really there's only four or five in the, you know, the brand. Right. The umbrella, the umbrella. But cars have not gone away. Cars are the most important, one of the most important transportation equipment, whatever in the world. Plains is the same thing. 1960s, 1950s, there must have been a hundred

Speaker 03568.22s - 3576.1s

plane or airlines, Pan Am, whatever it is. And now there's, you know, a handful. Boeing ORG and

Speaker 13576.1s - 3598.48s

Airbus ORG dominate. And so, but planes are still useful. And so I think that that's where I think maybe the negativity around Bitcoin misses the trick. Because if you ask me in a hundred years, do I think blockchain will be around? Do I think cryptocurrencies will be around? Do I think maybe the negativity around Bitcoin misses the trick. Because if you ask me in 100 years, do I think blockchain will be around? Do I think cryptocurrencies will be around and vital, integral parts of our economy and our society? Absolutely. But do I think Bitcoin will be in?

Speaker 03598.84s - 3599.56s

Oh, no. Why?

Speaker 13599.56s - 3626.28s

You know, why does it. So, you know, but that's what I'm saying. So it may be Ford is still around, right? Ford, Daimler Chrysler Daimler's, Deemler, Deemler is the one who invented the diesel engine and it's still around. You know what I mean? So Bitcoin might be Mercedes-Benz ORG of cryptocurrency. But I think to me, what I think is fascinating. What's a really, really amazing contribution to humanity is sort of the technology behind Bitcoin that I think is to me unstoppable.

Speaker 03627.36s - 3634.06s

There's a lot of all caps messages in the chat here. I mean, it's not fair.

Speaker 13634.18s - 3638.62s

I know we, I know we're running out of time, but I do, I do think, I do think it's fair.

Speaker 03638.62s - 3645.74s

And I think there's some concern, like I'd be curious, I think to really decide whether or not I should bear down on you. Go for it. I want to hear it. I'm genuine, I'm genuine in your view. I think, to really decide whether or not I should bear down on you.

Speaker 13645.82s - 3648.48s

Go for it. I want to hear it. I'm genuine. I'm genuine review.

Speaker 03648.9s - 3652.12s

I think blockchain is only good for money.

Speaker 13652.68s - 3673.4s

Okay. Interesting. And it's broadly inefficient, as you mentioned. But, you know, by that same, the other side of that coin is that it's censorship resistant. It's permanent. It's difficult to capture. Bitcoin works because of the link to the energy industry through the mining mechanism. So that's something I forgot to mention. I don't

Speaker 03673.4s - 3815.66s

know enough about that. Yeah. And like I think honestly, Rich PERSON, if you knew a bit more about it, you'd maybe get closer to where we are. And I think the concerns you have, you know, I've taken some shit on our show over the years because I do think there's legitimate concerns about this government monopoly on power violence and ultimately the banking system. You know, our sponsor, for example, if I can't use the cash to buy Bitcoin at the post office or at the ATM or via e-transfer, which by the way is the case for some places in the world already. I think the UK GPE blocks generally most crypto-related e-transfers, Bitcoin or otherwise. It's a problem for us. Now, does it kill the network? No.And there's some game theory and some incentive stuff that, you know, is difficult to overcome for governments. But the road, you know, the road to victory for Bitcoin in a lot of Bitcoiners' eyes is, is almost guaranteed. I'm not sure that it's guaranteed, but I am 100% sure that it's rocky. And we're starting to see some of that rockiness now. I don't know how much you keep up with this stuff, but there's, you know, privacy services that have been, you know, shut down, had theirdevelopers apprehended by American NORP and foreign governments running open source software. And, you know, again, like I said earlier, there's a lack of understanding in the general public thanks to, you know, probably intentional, intentionally misleading reports from legacy media about the nature of Bitcoin and the nature of the network and the nature of the asset and what it's good for and what it's not good for and what you should do and what you shouldn't do our prime minister famously is mentioned it in the nature of Bitcoin, the nature of the network, and the nature of the asset, and what it's good for and what it's not good for, and what you should do,and what you shouldn't do, our prime minister famously is mention it in the House of Commons ORG more than once at this point, I think. Although by the time the next election rolls around, I expect it to be six figures, and there probably won't be any mention of it from him. My suggestion to people, and my suggestion to you, too, is engage with it in a way that makes sense to people, and my suggestion to you too, is engage with it in a way that makes sense to you, and you'll find that it is solving some problem that you have, whether it's wealth preservation,whether it's lack of availability of a steady currency, any number of things. It's there for everyone, and that's the reason I opened the show with the sort of catchphrase, you know, welcome friends and enemies, because it's for everybody. I may not like the way you use it. And you may not like the way I use it. But it's ultimately, it's just there, you know, it's TikTok ORG next block, as we

Speaker 13815.66s - 3820.32s

like to say. So I just want to be just clear about something. I don't ascribe to any of the dumb

Speaker 03820.32s - 3827.34s

narratives about like, for example, of clear money laundering shit. You know what currency is the most important. We all know, Rich.

Speaker 13827.34s - 3828.12s

We all know.

Speaker 03828.12s - 3836.58s

Related currency and money launding currency. Last I checked, people were not going skiing with a rolled up Bitcoin. I'm pretty sure it's rolled up, you know, US dollars.

Speaker 13836.58s - 3864.34s

Right. So let's, so that's that to me, I don't get me wrong. I don't, any, any kind of disagreements we have will be centered purely on my ignorance of Bitcoin. And I think, and it's as profound as deep as probably, you know, any, any sort of no holder out there. And so I don't want to come across to someone who's doubting it. I think, I think the power it is demonstrated with respect to simply the financial markets.

Speaker 03864.48s - 3899.88s

And I would submit to you, you know, like it's on the Bloomberg ORG. It's on data stream. You know, I shares have an ETF. And I would tell you that if it's difficult, it might be easy to bullshit a politician. It's very difficult to bullshit millions of finance bros who are committed to trying to catch you out. Do you know what I mean?And I think that that, if anything, that is now you want to, that might be a insult or, or a compliment. I'm not sure just yet. But the fact that it's survived this much scrutiny, I think is one of the most important sort

Speaker 13899.88s - 3941.38s

of, you know, feathers in its cap. Because I don't think, is there any other asset in the world that survives this much that has this much scrutiny under it and yet despite this it carries on and I think that that's a you know as a markets guy who watch who thinks about behavioral economics who looks at signals and and tries to see you know in part where the markets are going that is a major signal you you know, because if WarrenBuffett could pay some guy $2 million to figure out how to screw with Bitcoin, he would have. And there's a bunch of people in New York and London who would do them the same. And yet, they haven't. So it's interesting. From that part, I think is really positive.

Speaker 03941.94s - 3951.72s

Do you think, this is the last thing I'll ask it, do you think we're at the point with Bitcoin? And I'll refer you to an interview I did a while ago. Do you know who Chris Irons is, quote the Raven PERSON?

Speaker 13953.68s - 3955.66s

No, I know every Allen Poe PERSON is.

Speaker 03955.94s - 3956.6s

No, no, no.

Speaker 13956.68s - 3958.28s

I mean, obviously, it's same vein.

Speaker 03958.4s - 3961.76s

But no, this guy's, he writes a finance letter and he's become fairly popular.

Speaker 13961.76s - 3963.12s

Oh, quote the Raven PERSON. Yes, yes, yes, yes.

Speaker 03963.18s - 3963.34s

Yeah.

Speaker 13963.34s - 4002.64s

So we had him on in December, I think, or January when he converted to, you know, went public with his Bitcoin ORG, you know, positive thesis. And I would, I would tell you to listen to that interview because he's a guy who's a very bright guy, works in finance, he's worked in finance a long time and had some of the same doubts that you're espousing. And he can articulate his sort of shift in thinking better than I can articulate it. That's point number one.Point number two, we talked a bit about like, you know, the sort of weakness in Canadian economy and risk is expressed that, you know, through the Canadian NORP dollar at some point. And obviously you guys have had Brent Johnson PERSON on dollar milkshake, that the U.S. dollar will be the dirtiest or cleanest dirty shirt. But at some point, these fiat currencies are going to fail.

Speaker 04003.4s - 4033.3s

One of my, one of the key penance of the thesis in when it comes to Bitcoin, really, it's two-prong, right? One is, I'm betting on the printer continuing to run. I think that's a pretty safe bet. But the other point, I think that most people don't understand now, but you will understand it, is that any, you know, posturing and shrieking done by governments or banning or outlying done by governments of Bitcoin now is more a signal of a scared animal than it is someone who's trying to protect you.

Speaker 14033.54s - 4061.16s

They've, that Rubicon FAC's been crossed, right? I mean, but that's, yes, but I, but that, you know, there's a double, there's another edge that sword, which is, if you're a government, let's just say, let's do the thought experiment. I know we're running at time. But let's just do it. Like, if you're, if you're the government, what is one of the biggest threats to your homogene? Whether you agree with this government or, I'm not saying, again, not left, not right, just any government.

Speaker 04061.58s - 4061.9s

Yeah. Yeah.

Speaker 14061.96s - 4108.44s

You want to be able to control the printing press. And so if someone takes that away from you you are not going to be pleased i don't care what side of the spectrum you're on and so and and to doubt their willingness and ability to impress upon you that they are in charge of the printing press i would say just i would just be mindful that they are in charge of the printing press, I would say, just, I would just be mindful that they have a lot of guns and courts and they, they have a monopoly on violence in our society for better and for worse. And I think that that's a, that's terrifying.You know, that's why I don't, for example, this is why you've heard me on my, on my show and on Twitter ORG or whatever, say no to central bank digital currencies.

Speaker 04109s - 4113.2s

Because once we give that in, it's one thing to have Bitcoin.

Speaker 14113.56s - 4151.64s

It's one thing to regulate Bitcoin. It's a whole other thing to have the central bank be in charge of a digital currency. That to me is tyranny. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200. That is tyranny.And the other thing is, but one thing about the whole end of the dollar as the reserve currency, I would just, maybe this is we can leave you on this, which is you only have the end, unless I'm wrong, unless somebody on Twitter ORG is going to prove me wrong, I'm pretty sure that the only way you ever have a change in reserve currency status, whether it was the Portuguese to Spanish NORP, Spanish to Dutch, Dutch to French, French to English NORP,

Speaker 04153.7s - 4156.42s

English to the US GPE, on and on, is through a major war.

Speaker 14156.88s - 4161.16s

And this changing of military might

Speaker 04161.16s - 4163.54s

from handing over the baton from one person,

Speaker 14163.7s - 4196.02s

whether it was Portugal to know, Portugal to Spain, you know, France to England in the 1800s, England to the United States in the 1915 or, let's say 18 or whatever. And when you have might equals right when it comes to currencies. And I think that that's a really important factor. And so people who are saying the U.S. is reserved currency is doomed because China GPE's, there needs to be bloodshed before that happened. Normally. Now, again, I'm sure someone will think of an example of where I'm wrong, butnormally that's the way it works.

Speaker 04196.74s - 4199.32s

You've been outstanding guess, Rich PERSON. I'm sure. I hope so.

Speaker 14199.48s - 4204.76s

You were. I'm hopeful we can do this again. And again, like, it's funny talking now to

Speaker 04204.76s - 4229.98s

the three of you guys from Looney Hour in these one hour, one hour and change formats. You really get to expand on some of the things that you are shooting out quickly on the show. And it's been a real pleasure for me to have you go deeper on some of your ideas. So I want to thank you for that. Now, before you go, as always, tell people, once again, where they can find you about the show. The floor is all yours. Sure. So, loony hour ORG.

Speaker 14231.32s - 4263.18s

com. You can find me on Twitter at Richard Diaz underscore CFA. And you can find us on YouTube ORG. If you look up Steve Serratky PERSON, we were under his banner. And yeah, and I look forward to a follow and a challenge to any of the views. I won't ban you if you disagree with me. And I look forward to joining you again. I promise that if you join me next time, I'll have a much, much healthier understanding of Bitcoin. How about that? That's a promise I'm willing to make.

Speaker 04263.46s - 4298.64s

I love it. Thanks for coming in, everyone. We'll talk to you soon. Well, don't forget, everybody, lots of other stuff on CBP Media Network ORG, including two whites in the blue, me, Joey, my brother-in-law, Mike, and our friend Will PERSON talk about all the problems millennials are having with finance, romance. And just getting by. If you like CBP, if you like the NHL 94 ORG podcast, I guarantee you'll like that one.Search for it. Two whites in the blue anywhere you get your podcast. We look forward to seeing you.