Predicting NFL Win Totals: Detroit Lions go OVER, Don't Trust New York Jets & Buffalo Bills Uncertainty

Speaker 20s - 15.56s

It's the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. It's time for some NFL ORG overs and unders,

Speaker 116.2s - 19.74s

and the Detroit Lions look like they could dominate the season.

Speaker 020.08s - 23.1s

We'll talk about it on a Thursday edition of Locked On NFL ORG.

Speaker 128.94s - 36.1s

You are Locked on NFL, your daily NFL podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network ORG,

Speaker 036.4s - 38.02s

your team every day.

Speaker 139.7s - 177.06s

Welcome in to a Thursday edition of the Locked on NFL podcast. I am one of your host, Tyler Rowland, local expert for Locked on Titans ORG. Here with my co-host Alex Clancy from Locked on Cardinals ORG. This Thursday edition of the Locked on NFL podcast is brought to you by Game Time ORG. Download the Game Time app, create an account, use the code Locked on NFL for $20 off, your first purchase, terms apply.Now that we are past the NFL ORG draft and past the big wave of free agency, it's time to look at some of these over-under totals on Fandual Sportsbook and talk about which teams we think will go over, which teams we think will go under and teams that it's better to stay away from. Before we dive into our over's, unders, and stay-aways, do want to thank you for making Locked-onNFL your first listen each and every day, Monday through Friday, NFL content every single day all year long. Make sure that you get subscribe, stay subscribed. Again, it's your team every day here on the Locked-onpodcast network, of course, all of our overs and unders are from Fandul ORG's sportsbook, the official sports book of the Locked-on Podcast Network ORG. Shout out to Fandle ORG. Make sure you guys go over there and check out some of these over-undersand the ones that you like. But we are going to start with the teams that we think will go over their season win total on Fandual ORG. And Alex, I came out of the gate and mentioned the Detroit Lions ORG, and that is exactly where I'm going to start. I just love what Detroit ORG's doing.They have so much momentum. Their team is so set. Their coaching staff is so set. There's continuity. There's improvements. I like that they went out and solved the cornerback issueby getting Carleton Davis PERSON in a trade. They go out and get Tyrion Arnold PERSON in the draft. I just really like what Detroit ORG has done here. I like everything that they put together. And I think that they are an obvious over here. So their win total this year for Detroit is 10 and a half games DATE. I think they're definitely going over that. I think Detroit could win 12, 13 games. I don't know that they're going to be a team that wins theSuper Bowl or makes it to the Super Bowl EVENT, but I think they should dominate the regular season. So I have Detroit, 10 and a half wins. I have them as a major over team to bet on this year. Yeah, you know what?

Speaker 2177.08s - 205.18s

I think it's a little closer than you. They play the NFC West LOC. Okay, they play San Francisco, play Seattle, play the Rams ORG. I mean, the Cardinals aren't where they're, you know're going to be, you think, in the next two seasons. I think Chicago ORG is going to be a tougher out. I think Minnesota GPE is going to be a tougher out.I think Green Bay ORG is going to be a tougher out. So I would see them maybe at 10, 11. I don't think they're going to win 14. I don't think, like, this is a new age for the lions where they're

Speaker 1205.18s - 210.6s

expected to win the division. They have expectations now, yes. Like real ones, like Super Bowl

Speaker 2210.6s - 224.36s

aspiration expectations. And while Jared Goff, I am a truth of rough and I have been. So for those of the last three years DATE, you know that. I don't, I'm not as sure as you are. I think around

Speaker 0224.36s - 231.82s

that 10 or 11 is about right. I think there's going to be a malaise, a drop off from their loss last year in the championship game. Like, I feel like this is just the normal things.

Speaker 2232.18s - 238.44s

The real litmus test, the real, um, catalyst here is how good Chicago and Minnesota GPE are going to be. Right.

Speaker 0238.44s - 242.46s

Because if they play tough games against them and they split with one or two of those teams,

Speaker 2242.7s - 245.4s

getting to that 11 numbers would be a little bit more difficult. But yeah, I mean, I think.

Speaker 1245.4s - 248.22s

I don't believe in Minnesota GPE. I think Minnesota GPE is going to be bad.

Speaker 2248.4s - 251.26s

So I don't, I'm not a believer in Minnesota GPE anyway.

Speaker 1251.38s - 265.9s

So that is a calculus. And Chicago ORG, good, but we don't really know for certain. But either way, either way, I agree with some of your stances on Detroit ORG. I'm still going to bank on them going over 10 and a half wins. Who's somebody that you think's going to go over this year?

Speaker 2266.36s - 270.14s

Kansas City. And I think this one's going to be because the Raiders ORG have taken a step

Speaker 1270.14s - 286.22s

back even though it's in a division. Even though they've added, you know, they've got Christian Wilkins. It's very obvious in the in the AFC West LOC. You need pass rushers to get to Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City had 11 and a half games too. So 11 and a half, they're going, that's 12, 13, 14.

Speaker 2286.66s - 315.06s

I'm not going to tell you you're wrong, just making sure that the people know what we can have win totalized. I should have mentioned that. And the Broncos are a team, unless you believe in the Bo Nix and Troy Franklin experiment from right out the gate. I think that's going to be two wins for Kansas City ORG right there.I think this year, people just took them for granted all year last year. They didn't win as many games. They didn't look. It wasn't as sexy. It was more, you know, Isaiah Pacheco, then Tyree Kail and Travis Kelsey. It doesn't matter if Rashi Rice PERSON is going to be

Speaker 1315.06s - 318.88s

on the field. I think Xavier Worthy's going to be able to come in. Travis Kelsey PERSON's got a new deal.

Speaker 2318.96s - 329.76s

He's going to be reinvigorated. That defense is still good. They brought, they brought, except for the Ligerius need, they brought everybody back. Like, I think the Chiefs are going to win 12, 13 games and remind people throughout the year who they are.

Speaker 1330.42s - 337.9s

Yeah, I think that's a fair bed. As you always say, it's Patrick Mahomes PERSON until it isn't. I'm not betting against that one. So I'm rocking with you there.

Speaker 2337.94s - 338.86s

And I will say one more.

Speaker 1339.36s - 344.22s

I do want to give a little home cooking one more. I think Arizona Cardinals six and a half, I think they'll go over that.

Speaker 2345.54s - 372.06s

Even though it's a tough schedule, I think with Kyla Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. PERSON, much improved defense, and most importantly, it improved offensive lining James Connor PERSON having a running, making Tray Benson out of Florida State right now. The Cardinals are going to be a top five rush attack. You would think in the league, and then you have guys like Tray McBride and Marvin Harrison, Jr., past catching guys that will be able to make Kyle Murray's PERSON job the easiest it's been since he's coming to the league. So I'm good. I would take the over with the Cardinal 6.5.

Speaker 1372.8s - 377.9s

I think the question there is defense. I agree with you all the pieces that you mentioned on

Speaker 2377.9s - 382.24s

offense. I like the additions on the offensive line as well. But I think it all comes down

Speaker 1382.24s - 452.32s

to the defense for Arizona ORG. So I'm probably a little more lukewarm on that, but you know the team better, so that's understandable. The next team I wanted to mention is actually somebody in the NFC West, and it's Seattle ORG. Seattle is seven and a half wins right now, and I think with the continuity that they have on offense with the players, I know that they change coaches, but with the players they have on offense that are all familiar with each other. I think you're going to get a second year jump from Jackson Smith and Jigba PERSON as well.That's going to be helpful. And I think on defense, they're going to be buoyed by the addition of Mike McDonald PERSON. And he's just going to make the defense better in general, even if the talent, you know, still leaves some to be desired. I think that Seattle is seven and a half wins. I can absolutely see them going over that.I think eight to nine wins would make sense for Seattle ORG. I don't think it's asking a lot for them to go over that. A little home cooking as well. Titan, six and a half. Look, I don't see how you can look at everything the Titans ORG have done this offseasonand think they're going to be worse than they were last year or even to what they were last year. But I know that the National Cognos believe, does not believe in Will Levis PERSON. So understandable there. Any other teams that stand out to you as dead nuts over?

Speaker 2454.32s - 463.02s

Death, taxes, Mike Tomlin winning nine games a year. You know, and if they did it last year, I think they won, they won eight or nine games.

Speaker 1463.02s - 475.06s

Seven and a half is the total for the Steelers ORG. Yeah, I'm hammering the over. I'm hammering the over with that quarterback room collectively with Justin Fields and Russell Wilson PERSON. I know they both have their shortcomings being better than any quarterback

Speaker 2475.06s - 504.4s

room since Ben Rothersberger PERSON retired by a long shot. And then having, you know, Naji Harris going into a year where he's going to need to, you know, he's going to need to show up to be able to get that next contract. Jalen Warren PERSON going to be in the zone. They're going to have that great one-two punch. They added to the offensive line, like, and the defense is the defense.I don't understand why Pittsburgh ORG wouldn't be higher. And there's a specific reason as to why I think they may get an extra game in division, but we'll talk about that in the next segment with teams that we don't think will hit their numbers.

Speaker 1504.68s - 508.04s

But I think Pittsburgh over seven and a half is definitely one that I would

Speaker 2508.04s - 512.32s

put a couple of shots. And I would say that their offensive coordinator, while Arthur Smith

Speaker 1512.32s - 689.8s

failed as a head coach, I think Arthur Smith PERSON is clearly a big upgrade over Matt Canada offensive coordinator. So that should help them out as well. I think that's a pretty good, pretty good suggestion with Pittsburgh ORG. But overall, some teams that we do think are going to go over. There are teams that we think are going to go out as well. I think that's a pretty good suggestion with Pittsburgh. But overall, some teams that we do think are going to go over. There are teams that we think are going to go under as well. And if you're watching on YouTube ORG, make sure to let usknow down below whether you agree, disagree with those selections, what selections stand out to you again. All of these over-under totals are available via fan dual sports books. So make sure that you check them out over there. We're going to get to our undersand the teams that we would stay away from entirely here throughout the rest of the show before we do them. Do want to let you guys know that today's episode is sponsored by better help. Sometimes we all need the opportunityto get something off our chest. That's why I really appreciate being able to do this show every week with Alex PERSON. Whether it's big or small, certain things can really start to get to you. And it's important to let that out, especially to someone who's unbiased on your life. So today, we're going to talk about, you know, things that we really need to get off our chest thatwe've been thinking about all week long. And that's these over-under totals and where we see these teams after the two biggest player acquisition periods of the off season. But look, but look, the obvious thing here is that a lot of people have bigger problems in their life than what their favorite sports teams might do. And that's why it's good that therapy can be different for everyone,because it's important for everyone to get things off their chest every once in a while. If you're thinking about starting therapy, you have to give better help a try. It's entirely online. It's designed to be flexible, suited to your schedule. Make sure you visit betterhelp.com slash locked on to get 10% off your first month. That's better help, help.com slash locked on. All right, football fans, let's continue a Thursday edition of the Locked-on NFL podcast.We talked about the teams that we think are going to go over their season win total. Now let's talk about teams that are going to go under. And Alex PERSON, you know, I thrive off negativity. So very excited to talk about these teams that I do not trust. Of course, again, all of these over unders available via Fandual Sportsbook ORG.Make sure you check those out over there. I'm going to come out of the gate again. I trust Detroit ORG. A team I don't trust is the New York Jets ORG. The New York Jets are nine and a half as their season win total right now. And look, I know that they've made improvements.I understand that. Aaron Rogers, in theory, should stay healthy longer than he did last year. But there's just so many things that can go wrong. So number one, both of their startingoffensive tackles are 33 years old. And Tyrant Smith PERSON especially has had major issues with injury. I know that they drafted Ola Faschino in the first round, but that's a rookie offensive lineman, and I don't know if Aaron Rogers is going to give him the opportunity to grow

Speaker 0689.8s - 706.54s

to be the player that he needs to be. Rogers PERSON is pretty demanding. I'm just not 100%. And really past the offensive line concerns and whether they can stay healthy, whether Rogers PERSON can stay healthy,which are things that could just disastrously go wrong.

Speaker 1707.3s - 753.94s

I don't trust their coaching staff. That's what it really comes down to. I do not trust Nathaniel Hackett, who is maybe the worst head coach in NFL history up there with Urban Meyer PERSON. I mean, it was an absolute disaster. I do not trust Robert R. Sala PERSON. All of the noise that came from New York this all season was abouttheir coaching staff and how people didn't trust the staff and how the players didn't trust the coaching staff. And I just, with the injury risk with this team and the coaching staff, and the lack of confidence I have in that coaching staff, for me, the New York Jets ORG at nine and a half wins, I would hit that under because there are so many avenues, so many avenues to them going under nine and a half wins. So that would be the number one that stands out to me as a team I think that goes under.

Speaker 2754.18s - 756.9s

Yeah. For me, it's New Orleans GPE under seven and a half.

Speaker 1757.62s - 764.96s

Carolina got better. Atlanta is better. Tampa Bay GPE is Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay is one of those

Speaker 2764.96s - 782.28s

teams that's like Pittsburgh ORG. They're not going to get blown out. They're going to be there. They're going to be around. I love Baker Mayfield PERSON. I, you know what? I think it's time to officially transition myself into a Baker Mayfield truther. I think I'm going to take that step up. I need to replace Taylor Heineke PERSON.

Speaker 0782.28s - 792.02s

So I think what we're doing now is Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield are my two truthers quarterbacks. And, you know, Mike, everybody loves being there.

Speaker 2792.72s - 839.84s

You know, Rashad White PERSON's going to get better. They've looked like they've stabilized the head coaching position with Todd Bulls PERSON, like that he was going to be fired and then now everything's going to be fine. So I think that they've got good enough talent on both sides of the ball to be able to compete for that division. I just don't think New Orleans like, Derek Carr PERSON has been exposed as a guy who just can't get it done.And I don't know if Spencer Rattler PERSON is going to be starting midway through the season. I'm assuming that that would be the ideal scenario if he shows enough in camp. And if Derek Carr PERSON plays poorly enough, that you throw the kid out there with Taysam Hill running, you know, different packages and you run off into the sunset that way. But I would take New Orleans GPE and then one for me that is in your backyard, but not in your team you cover backyard, the team that you love to talk about the most backyard at Cincinnati GPE.10 and a half.

Speaker 1840.48s - 844.28s

Joe Burrow needs to play a full season before you can trust that they're going to win 10 games.

Speaker 2844.7s - 864.8s

And the Jake Brownie experiment was fun last year. It was everything. You know what? This team is on my list of teams that will regress the most, especially with Cleveland coming to another year with Deshaun Watson, with that vaunted defense, with the Steelers defense, with the Ravens ORG being the best team in division. That's six of their games.That's 33% of their season.

Speaker 0865.44s - 882s

Those are going to be some of the toughest games they play all year with teams that know them the best. So they lost Joe Mixon. I don't think that this is going to be a fun year in Cincinnati GPE. Just like I called Buffalo three years ago, which we're going to talk about in the next segment, I think Cincinnati can be the next one where Joe Burroughs PERSON is going to have to

Speaker 2882s - 892.08s

carry the weight a lot more than people expect and against the defenses they're going to have to play this year. It's going to be a very, very difficult task to do. So I would take the under 10 and a half in Cincinnati GPE, even though

Speaker 1892.08s - 899.74s

it's going to be close. And I would point out, the offensive architect of that team left to go

Speaker 0899.74s - 904.22s

be the head coach of the Tennessee Titans ORG. I'm not trying to overdo it with my support of Brian

Speaker 1904.22s - 922.96s

Callahan PERSON, but Callahan PERSON was the one installing the offense. Callahan PERSON was the one adjusting the offense. Callahan PERSON had a lot more input in that offense than people want to think, you know, was Zach Taylor being a Sean McVay PERSON guy? So it'll be interesting to see how they respond there. For me, other than New York, Washington, Washington at six and a half.

Speaker 0923.28s - 942.84s

So you're telling me that Washington would have to win seven games for me to lose and go seven and ten. I'm taking the under on Washington ORG. I think it's been a disastrous all season in D.C. I love the alliteration there and I've been hanging on to it. Misery in Minnesota GPE, disaster in D.C. Love that stuff.But look, they got Jaden Daniels PERSON.

Speaker 1943.34s - 1007.36s

I am not convinced that Jaden Daniels PERSON is going to be like an elite quarterback. I think that he benefited a lot from the cast that he had at LSU ORG. He was a five-year guy in college, so he was playing against a lot of younger guys when he was cutting people up. You put him behind, you know, a terrible offensive line, quite honestly. And I like Terry McLaurin PERSON.I like John Dotson PERSON. I like some of the pieces that they have, but they don't have a dominant number one guy. They don't have a Malik PERSON neighbors. They don't even have a Brian Thomas Jr. Their offensive line is still a huge question mark,and I don't think that they did enough to correct that offensive line. So you're taking Jane Daniels PERSON from an elite situation to one of the worst situations supporting cast-wise in the NFL ORG. I don't believe in Dan Quinn PERSON. As you have explained, Cliff Kingsbury PERSON isn't somebody that you can necessarily trust either. So with Cliff Kingsbury and Dan Quinn PERSON is the coaching staff there, like, I just do not believein Washington ORG at all. I don't think that their roster is good enough. I think they're going under the six and a half wins. I know that's a low total. That's one of the lowest totals of all these teams.

Speaker 21007.64s - 1015.54s

But I don't see how Washington is winning seven games this year. The last team that I would have mentioned, because you mentioned the Bengals, Baltimore ORG.

Speaker 11016.98s - 1049.14s

Baltimore ORG lost a lot of pieces on their offensive line. Baltimore, I don't think, did enough to add playmakers after losing O'Dell Beckham PERSON. They add Derek Henry, but I think that feeds into the worst aspect of Baltimore ORG. You lose Mike McDonald PERSON on defense. You lose some pieces on defense. Like, I don't think that Baltimore is going to be as good as they were last year.I think there's going to be a bit of a dang, we had it last year

Speaker 01049.14s - 1099.5s

and things still didn't go the way that we wanted. So for me, Baltimore is out 11 and a half. I think they could win 11 games. I think they could win 10 games and still be a good team and win that division and go to the playoffs and not be a wildcar team. Like, I don't think Baltimore ORG is going to be bad.I just don't know if they're going to win 12 games this year with a healthy Joe Burrow PERSON, with an improved Steelers, with the Browns being better and more confident this year. Like, I just think there are a lot of ways where Baltimore can win 10 or 11 games and not go over that. So Baltimore ORG is kind of an honorable mention. Last year, I was the onebanging on the table saying Baltimore ORG is going to win the division. Baltimore will be better than Cincinnati GPE. But this year, I think they maybe take a little bit step back from that. I'm not saying they're going to be a bad team. But I'm just going to, if I had to pick a third under, I would go Baltimore under 11 and a half DATE.

Speaker 21099.5s - 1129.74s

Yeah, it's interesting. I mean, Derek Henry is going to have to have a 201, Derek Henry PERSON year for them to win that many games. And they're going to run the ball a lot. They're going to run the ball a whole bunch when Keith Mitchell comes back and then, you know, Lamar Jackson PERSON obviously with his legs. So I have a question for you.This is a pop quiz. You don't know that I'm going to ask you this. The team that has a better chance of hitting the under with their nine and a half wins, Green Bay or Houston GPE. The better chance of not getting to 10 wins. Green Bay or Houston GPE.

Speaker 11130.32s - 1170.22s

I'll say Green Bay, because if Detroit ORG is as good as I think they're going to be, if Chicago is much better, if Minnesota GPE is much better. I like what Green Bay ORG did, but they got a lot of young players, and I'm just not certain that, like, the defense is going to change. What if that doesn't work? There are just things that could, and their offensive line was great last year because theyhave great offensive line coaching, but they don't have a lot of studs on the offensive line other than Elton Jenkins PERSON who are like, you know, I know for sure that dude's going to be great year in and year out. So if Jordan Love PERSON is a little rusty, you know, maybe even if he gets hurt, if anybody's quarterback gets hurt, you know, that obviously could doom him.

Speaker 01170.28s - 1183.84s

But if you had to put me in a spot, I would say Green Bay ORG there because I think the Texans are clearly the most talented team in that division, while Green Bay ORG is, you know, they could be the third most talented team in that division based on their roster. So I would go Green Bay ORG.

Speaker 21184.34s - 1191.12s

Yeah, I just, I can't, you know that I question lazy thinking like, oh, C. D.D. Sheld's going to be great. We don't know that yet.

Speaker 01191.58s - 1198.12s

He had a good year last year as a rookie. There was no NFL ORG tape on him. Every single team is going to be gunning for him this year.

Speaker 21198.54s - 1212.96s

They've added pieces, yes, but one of my favorite things to say on this podcast, Tyler, is I trust teams that can play in any weather. I don't trust that Houston's Dome style play can translate the way the Green Bay's ORG style play can.

Speaker 01213.5s - 1218.26s

And Jordan Love PERSON, and I think Jordan Love and, you know, see just started the future of this, of the league or, you know, part of it.

Speaker 21218.56s - 1222.58s

But I think it's closer than just saying Green Bay just because Houston GPE has more talent.

Speaker 01222.66s - 1233.78s

I would give Matt LaFleur the edge in coaching right now, too, because of what he's gone through. D'Amico Ryan's The Apple of Maya WORK_OF_ART from afar and has been, but I would still give Matt LaFle PERSON the coaching edge right now just because he's more seasoned at this point.

Speaker 21234.26s - 1293.52s

But anyways, listen, Tyler and I have been on the pulse that there's something wrong in Orchard Park GPE in Buffalo for the last three off seasons. It's coming to roost at this point. What to make a Buffalo ORG at this point. We'll discuss it next year.We're all on here. Locked on NFL Thursday. But first, this episode of Locked on NFL Thursday WORK_OF_ART is brought to you by the game time app. Take all the guesswork out of buying tickets, man. It's an authorized ticketmarketplace of the NBA ORG, which means getting playoff tickets even faster and easier. Prices on the GameTime PRODUCT app actually go down closer to tip off that you buy them with killer last minute deals, all in prices, views from your seats, and their lowest price guaranteed game time takes the guesswork out of buying NBA ORG tickets. Think about it this way. You want to go to a playoff game. They sell tickets after the game starts. So if you want to wait to last night, you want to play a little ticket chicken as it

Speaker 01293.52s - 1300.1s

were game time allows you to do that. And before, you know, jumping in, you're like, all right, I'm going to pay my hard-earned money for tickets.

Speaker 21300.62s - 1393.52s

You can actually click on the seats in the row and section that you want, and you can see the vantage point that you will see when you sit your keysters in those seats. It is an absolute flippant game changer. Download the game time out today, okay? Create an account. Use code locked on NFL for 20 bucks off your first purchase.Terms to apply again, create an account, redeem code L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N, NFL for 20 bucks off. Download game time. Today, last minute tickets, lowest price, guarantee. Locked NFL Thursday,Alex Clancy PERSON at Clancy's Corner underscore at Tick-Tac Titans for Tyler. If you were a film junkie, you can check out Tyler's YouTube channel as well. Tick-T-Tit-T Titans. Dude puts in more work. junkie, you can check out Tyler's YouTube channel as well. Ticktac Titans. Dude puts in more work. You know, just go check out his stuff. It's always good content.And whether you agree with him or not, it doesn't matter. Doesn't mean he's wrong if you disagree with him. We make up locked on NFL Thursday. Tyler, we've gone through the over-unders, teams that we think will go over in their win-totals, teams that we think will go under their win-totals. Obviously, all of these lines are anywhere you can find Fandual, trusted partner of us and the NFL ORG. We've been on this Buffalo train for a while, Tyler. We were like, well, something's up. Is this just getting Kansas City ORG?Is this the Phil Mickelson PERSON effect? And then you saw Stefan Diggs start to chirp a little bit two off seasons ago. And then now he's no longer with the team. He's with the Houston Texans. We just discussed. Tyler, what the hell is going on in Buffalo ORG?

Speaker 11395.66s - 1478.66s

Well, I think that there was an issue with the chemistry. I think that's clear. I think they're searching for answers right now of what can get them over the hump. What can change things? What can help them beat Kansas City ORG? Because it's just such a tough task. And that's why it's a team that I just, I don't know what to make a Buffalo this year. With the changes that they made with where they're going to be with new faces on defense. Sean McDermann PERSON is going to be desperation mode. So their win total was 10 and a half wins.And I'm just staying away. I'm just staying away from it. Because Buffalo ORG could, you know, let's say, you know, proverbially, they cut out the cancer that is Stefan Diggs PERSON in the locker room. There's a better camaraderie in there.They play for each other. blah, blah, blah. They go to 12, 13 wins. I can see that. I can also see all of the talent that they lost and the desperation that they'll be playing with. Hurt them in a way to where they win eight or nine games and miss the playoffs.There's just such a large swath of possibilities for me that I don't want anything to do with Buffalo's 10 and a half over under. I don't even want to, I'm not going to bet on them. I'm not going to touch that. I'm not going to bet on them. I'm not going to touch that. I'm not going to try to thread that needle. I just don't know. We just don't know what's going to happen with Buffalo ORG off theso less confident than other teams. So I'm not touching the 10 and a half of Buffalo ORG whatsoever.

Speaker 21480.62s - 1509.9s

Yeah, I think the, and I'm using a lot of euphemisms today, but the Tom Brady PERSON effect may be coming into play where they're just the best team in the division. I mean, Miami, listen, Miami, they've got all the running backs, they've got all the receivers, they've got two, all of that stuff. They're always shootouts. It's really a coin flip when those two play. I'm not a huge truster of the Jets ORG either. I just like, you know, and then, you know, New England is going to be two wins for Buffalo. So they're starting with two. Yeah. So, and this is barring any sort of injury, whatever.

Speaker 11510.2s - 1517.04s

What I think we're going to see is a lot more Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid PERSON and a lot of running

Speaker 21517.04s - 1527.04s

the ball. And Josh Allen went above replacement, even in, you know, a 17 week NFL ORG season is like four, like above the

Speaker 01527.04s - 1538.64s

average quarterback who could wheel you to victory. The dude is an absolutely, especially early in seasons is an absolute madden on easy stat stuffer, which early in seasons usually translates to

Speaker 21538.64s - 1553.96s

wins. So I just staying away I get. And I think Ty will go to Josh Allen here because the dude is an absolute poster child for what you want your quarterback to be in the NFL ORG. He's got it all.

Speaker 11554.24s - 1554.36s

Yeah.

Speaker 21554.48s - 1599.72s

You know, demeanor, team first, ho-hum about himself. He's now in love with Haley Steinfeld PERSON. So that's only going to, you know, it's only going to level things up. More points. And everybody in Orchard Park GPE, there is no question about who the leader of that team is, who the fans love.And that, even though that's window dressing at times, it means so much. There's not a quarterback controversy. It's always who is not writing us as the, as the, as the, as the Bill ORG's fans, and they're not pointing fingers. The defense is going to look completely different, you know, but with Sean McDermott PERSON,they've got a level playing field from their coaching staff. They're very stable, and they just need to figure out how the hell to get that one seed so they don't have to go on the road and play Kansas City ORG.

Speaker 11600.1s - 1619.92s

I mean, that's pretty much what this is all about. Yeah, no, 100%. And I agree with you that you make a good point. In their division, they're probably a good bet to get a ton of division wins, which will help them get over that 10 and a half. But just with everything going on, the poison in the water,it just scares me. One other team that I want to stay away from is Indianapolis ORG.

Speaker 01620.8s - 1622.22s

Yeah, that's an interesting number.

Speaker 21622.88s - 1623s

Yeah.

Speaker 01623.7s - 1626.74s

Like, they brought back all of their folks.

Speaker 11626.86s - 1629.48s

And I know that, you know, people who listen to us all the time,

Speaker 21629.52s - 1630.62s

no, I'm an indie hater.

Speaker 11630.74s - 1658.68s

Like, I truly do hate the Colts ORG. They absolutely smoked my Titans ORG, my whole entire life mostly. Quarterback, you know, Peyton Manning, then Andrew Luck PERSON. I mean, I even went to the Curtis Painter game where the Colts were 0 and 14 and got their first win in the year against the Titans ORG. Because I thought, hey, I don't have a lot of money.Me and my brother will pay to go see this game. There's no way they lose this one, right? And they lost. So I have a special hatred in my heart for the Indianapolis Colts ORG. But here's my reasoning. Anthony Richardson PERSON does not stay healthy.

Speaker 01659.1s - 1661s

He only started one year in college football.

Speaker 11661.78s - 1682.88s

Last year he could barely play without leaving games. He eventually got her early in the season in a game against the Titans ORG where he was running the ball and got tackled onto his shoulder and hurt his shoulder and was out. His style of play and the way he has to play to be at max potential is going to require him to put himself in danger. So can Anthony

Speaker 01682.88s - 1748.76s

Richardson stay healthy? That is really, I think Indy could be a good team. I don't think they could be a great team. I think they could win nine games. They could win 10 games. I don't think that they could go over that. But all of that only matters if Anthony Richardson PERSON is healthy.And they got rid of Garner-Minchu, and they brought in Joe Flacco PERSON. And I know that Flacco PERSON had a fantastic run, fantastic Flacco last year at the end of the year with the Browns ORG. But I'm sorry, I don't think that the Colts ORG situation is as conducive to help a quarterback. They're going to put a ton of pressure on Anthony Richardsonto lead that team and be Superman PERSON for that team. The Browns ORG did the opposite. That is an incredibly quarterback-friendly offense where they don't ask the quarterback to do a ton and they put Flacco PERSON in a great position. So if the Colts have to go from Richardson to Flacco, is there a bigger difference in the NFL ORG in terms of the skill set of the starter and the skill set of the backup?I just have my concerns about that. It's not as clean of a fit as Minchu PERSON. And I'm not certain that Anthony Richardson PERSON, the way he plays, he's going to be able to stay healthy. So eight and a half wins from the Colts ORG, I'm just staying away from that because I could

Speaker 21748.76s - 1780.88s

clearly see nine and ten wins, but if Anthony Richardson PERSON gets hurt, you're cooked. Yeah, and there's one more for me that I should have mentioned that Atlanta's nine and a half, and I would hammer that over. This is what Kirk Cousins PERSON does, baby I would hammer that over. This is what Kirk Cousins PERSON does, baby, especially with no expectations. They've got no expectations. If they win the division, they're going to throw a parade for them. If they don't, they're still going to be the most exciting version of themselves sinceJulio John PERSON was in his prime.

Speaker 11781.42s - 1783.1s

Like, they're starting for Atlanta ORG.

Speaker 21783.52s - 1790.44s

If that was eight and a half, I'd be with you. But that at nine and a half, they got to win double digit games in his prime. Like, they were starting. If that was eight and a half, I'd be with you. But that at nine and a half, they got to win double digit games in year one. Yeah. That's, I don't know.

Speaker 11790.44s - 1792.6s

They could sweep their division.

Speaker 21794.62s - 1796.06s

I think Carolina ORG is going to be

Speaker 11796.06s - 1796.36s

Carolina ORG.

Speaker 21797.16s - 1801.22s

Kirk Cousins PERSON is a hired game winning gun.

Speaker 11801.4s - 1803.48s

That's why he made so much money in his life.

Speaker 21803.76s - 1804.48s

He doesn't get injured.

Speaker 11804.58s - 1827.82s

You know, we had his injury last year. Okay, he hasn't missed a significant amount of time like Sam Bradford PERSON did and still got all that money. Like,what Kirk Cousins PERSON does, he'll make Bejohn Robinson have his best year yet. Kyle Pitts PERSON for sure have his best year yet. And Drake London PERSON's going to eat,like those three guys. You don't have to do anything else. And the defense. And I wish they would have got Romo Dunez PERSON. You know, I just wish they would have taken O'Don ORG's.

Speaker 21827.82s - 1837.08s

Oh, no. Yeah, I know. I know. I know, but they didn't. So, you know, I just think that that's, Kirk Cousins is a game winner in the regular season.

Speaker 11837.48s - 1898.62s

So I see maybe them getting 10 wins. If Kirk Cousins PERSON gets hurt, Michael Pennix Jr. PERSON is maybe the most pro-ready quarterback that came into the draft. He was ready to play right away. So I guess you just slide him in there, and maybe that helps your case, you know,because it's not like there's going to be some scrub coming in. Pennix PERSON is okay. I don't think he's, you know, great, but I don't think he's terrible either. But anyway, I mean, I think Alex PERSON that we should do this again before the season starts, like, in August, and just kind of, I think, Alex, that we should do this again before the season starts, like, in August and just kind of, you know, take, you know, another, take another toll of where we are with these teams and what we think.But as for today, that is going to do it for a Thursday edition of the Locked-on WORK_OF_ART NFL podcast. Again, I'm one of your host, Tyler Rowland, here with my co-host, Alex Clancy PERSON. As I tell you guys every week, start your weekend early and stay safe out there. Hey, Prime members, you can listen to this locked on podcast ad free on Amazon ORG music.

Speaker 01899.12s - 1901.28s

Download the Amazon music app today.