NASCAR DFS - Kansas Cup Series 2024 Preview - Picks and Bets - DraftKings - Fantasy NASCAR Podcast 741

Speaker 00.64s - 2205.54s

Welcome to the Fantasy NASCAR podcast brought to you by Race for the Prize.com. Let's talk about Kansas and the Cup series. But first, go to racefethpricercom ORG. Join us. Get the sheets. I'm going to save you time. I'm going to save you money. I'm going to make it easy.All the data that you're about to see, you can get at the sheets, Venmo, PayPal ORG, cash up $30 over to me and I'll share it to you. Kansas, Darlington, Northwell,x,, Charlotte. What a month of fantasy racing. That's not even talking about indie stuff going on. The Kentucky Derby going on. What a month.Let's have a blast. We're having a blast here. Speaking of having good times, one of us won the Xfinity Dover Race EVENT. Congratulations. One of us. One of us.Join it, man. I love having you guys here. All right, Kansas GPE, actionable content. Enough with the victory lap. What's the information that we can use to make better picks at Kansas GPE, win some more money? All right, here's what we want to do with our actionable content. We'll talk Kansas, and I'll talk a little bit, Dover FAC a little bit later, and also make sure thatthat information helps you with your picks. But first, who are we targeting? If drivers are fast in Texas and Dover FAC, now I know Texas and Dover are not very similar intermediate tracks to Kansas GPE, true, but if you're setting up fast, if your team and driver are sympathetico, everything is locking and loading, then more than likely you're going to unload fast and be good at Kansas GPE. We'll throw in some other variables as well to try to differentiate between who will be faster than others.There's going to be other factors that we will talk about, but I am looking at Texas GPE. I am looking at Dover FAC, despite those being different intermediate tracks. You can also zoom a little bit back further to Las Vegas. Oh, that was almost a distant memory. I have to, you know, given how long the season's been already. But if we were looking for track comparisons,Las Vegas would compare much closer to the style of racing at Kansas GPE. Some people like to compare the two. Some people are going to bring up tire wear. I'm not going to be that much of a stickler. We're pulling enough data from Las Vegas, Texas, Dover, Kansas, 2023, that it's not really going to skew things too much if you look at Las Vegas. Now, if you only looked at Las Vegas, then sure, you could have some problems. But typically the drivers that are fast there are going tobe fast. And that's going to help us narrow in on our elite dominators. Although I don't expect a dominator at Kansas GPE, given the style of racing. Hogs mainly would be the more fitting term, a driver that leads a portion of the race and runs fast laps. I just don't see one person running away. We will have one driver who does lead more laps than anyone else, but it is not a racetrack where you're really going to be able to be in control the entire time,given the nature of the restarts. Now, once you get out in clean air, you're in clean air. It doesn't mean you're a dominator. It just means you're in clean air. We've seen that at all of the intermediate tracks. Your car is probably not the fastest car on the track.I mean, although you are getting the fastest laps, but to argue that you're the best, well, you are in clean air. And clean air is king, as we have seen. And that's fine. That's just the nature of racing. And we'll just deal with that. So the first thing that I would look at is simply, and you can look at raw results from Kansas GPE, look at is simply, and you can look at raw results from Kansas GPE, or we can go a little bit more finely tuned and use the sheet to look at what the drivers have done in terms of their driver rating. I think it's a better option. And we'll see that over since 2020, we'll go to the fallrace of 2020, up to 2023, and look at our Kansas ratings, and you'll see it at Kyle Larson PERSON. This average driver rating at Kansas is third. Number one, Denny Hamlin, average driver rating of fifth, number two on our board, top rated driver in both Kansas races last year. You'll remember a Rex Kyle Larson PERSON at the end of the 2023 spring race. Did he bump him?Did he get him merry loose? Put Larson in the wall at the end. He was faster than Larson, was able to run him down, and his own option was really to run him over. Hey, the Hamlet Larson rivalry, that could be quite a thing that we talk about for years.Chase Elliott PERSON right there and also Chase Elliott trending in the right direction at the moment. I was able to pass Larson a couple of times and that fall race looked pretty good. Byron, Bell PERSON, towards the top of the board. Bell PERSON's been really snake-bitten lately. When is he going to turn it around?Well, it's going to first start with maybe getting better starting position, not constantly having to deal with the pack. You know, we want to say, oh, Bell PERSON's got bad luck. Well, he's putting himself constantly in position to have bad luck. Eventually, maybe he won't. Either way, he's been good here.Tyler Reddick PERSON has been good here. We'll talk more about 2311 in a second. Reddick's second highest driver last year kind of steals a win, but as we'll see when we talk about the truck series, this is a place to steal wins.Blaney PERSON, not really surprised to see him towards the top. Ross Chastain, did I say track house for Tyler Redickman in 2311 PERSON? Track house has had some decent speed. As we go down, really no surprises. There's Bubble with a eighth highest driver rating last year, but he had some issues in the fall race, fourth, second in the races before that.Kazowski had a really strong fall race after a poor spring race. And it makes sense because we remember that RFK ORG had really started to turn things on late spring, early summer, and they carried that speed into the fall. But speed seems to have fallen off this season. So that's a quick way to look at the ratings. And then we could also look over and see what was their DFS rank to make it more actionable.Okay, well, they were fast, but did they score fantasy points? Well, yeah, look at Kyle Larson PERSON. Last six races, top five DFS score. Three of those times he scored the most fantasy points. Denny Hamlin, top five DFS scored in the last four all in the next gen. Seems like Larson and Hamler are going to be very popular plays if you are leaning on Kansas GPE track history.I don't see why you wouldn't want to give that a boost. Elliot's there. Another Hendrick ORG Car with a fast setup. Another Hendrick ORG Car with a fast setup. Another Hendrick car with a fast setup. That's telling me right here, I mean, obviously, they'll have the complete context, but one would assume Hendrik ORG cars tend to start closer to the front.So if they are scoring in the top 10 in DFS, it can't just be by finishing position alone. Obviously, that is part of it, but they are also earning fast laps. They are also leading laps. We've got another JGR ORG car here. And really no surprises there. So you can use that data.Second thing that I would look at besides looking at rating rank and DFS, we'll go over to some Dietrich data and look at what did they do at Kansas and Las Vegas last year? And if we took the Kansas races and the Las Vegas races, again, to each their own, oh, I don't think that's a good comparison. Look, this is just dataset two. We will probably go through 10, 15 different variables by time we make picks.These are things to play around with, have fun with, to look at throughout the week, to try to get an idea of who might have speed. And in the end, you may take some of the early week data, downgrade it, and look a little bit more at practice data. It's going to be completely up to you. You may look more at pit stock data. You're going to have to factor in how you want to weigh it. I'm going to present all the information to you. I'm going to give you all the information at racefor the prize.com ORG,Venmo, PayPal, Cash PRODUCT app. And then you can make decisions on the data, watch the videos and make the picks that you like, differentiate from the herd, even within our own herd, differentiate between our community. Larson number one, if we look at Las Vegas and Kansas races from last year. 0.96 Dietrich ORG data rating. Again, it's a lap by lap calculation, similar to driver rating, but I believe a little bit more finely tuned. And it's on zero to 100 scale.Larson Hamlin PERSON, no surprise. Byron's up there, Ross Chastain PERSON, checking the box. And one of the things that helps Chastain is, if you remember, his 2023 season, really peaked at Nashville GPE. And then he had that real summer drought. But then he came back to life later in the season.So having these bookend races, Vegas and Kansas earlier and then Kansas and Las Vegas later, I guess it helps his statistics a little bit and he is not skewed by his slump. Radick, not really surprised to see him be fast. Again, 2311 PERSON fast. Sometimes I think he's under radio driver. Bell, Blaney, Kislowski PERSON. Look at Kislauski at the end of the season.Look at how solid there. RFK ORG really figured some stuff out, which also is a bit of a head scratcher because right now, they're kind of on the opposite of the spectrum. They are struggling to find speed at the moment. Man, they had everything figured out last year. And they came into this year looking okay.Obviously some changes, maybe mixed some things up. But again, this could be the moment where they really start to get back into their groove, having not to deal with random tracks every single week. I mean, you look at the beginning of this season. We had a new short track package. We got road courses.We got plate races. Now as we get into the more steady eddy intermediate track part of the season, similar last year, it's when RFK ORG found speed. Maybe that's the direction of head again. But our first two tests of that, Texas and Dover FAC, did not look good for them. I mean, it is just that did not been really goodweekends, period. Their practice sessions are not working out the way that they approach practice is not working out. Races are not working out. Ah, boy. Wallace, Trex PERSON, we would expect to be a little bit higher, but again, he got into an issue, I think, early in the Kansas GPE race. I have to look at the data and see what exactly the mistake that he made was. We have so many tire rubs. We have so many spins.The spring race last year was Spin City FAC. And then you had plenty enough tire rubs in the fall race as well, which then leads to restart madness. And so it goes. So that's the next thing you could look at. And then also, if we were to cross-reference, hey, Larson last year, I checked the boxes of our KLV, Kansas and Las Vegas. What about this year?Yeah, those are some pretty good results. And that Texas GPE number should be higher at barring the issues that he ran into. Hamlin PERSON, clearly a monster at the moment. I've said this on the podcast before. Even if we throw out the data, and sometimes his practice speeds are not that great, we talk about the smartest driver, probably in the history of NASCAR ORG, the guy that just figures things out, works with his team, knows what to do, when to do it, knows how to lead his team, and make adjustments throughout the race.Find me a better adjuster. Find me a driver that gets better during the race. I don't know one. Who improves his car throughout the course of a race better than Dennyham. And we see that every single week now. Where he's there, he looks good, and then all a sudden look up, he won again. Byron PERSON sometimes is a little bit the opposite of whereif someone's going to fade out, kind of Byron PERSON. Chastain's up there, Reddick PERSON, definitely going to be high on the board once again. And this is a week where I can start to go a little bit back more towards Blaney PERSON. Blaney had another good Dover FAC run. Dover was a track that was never really his best track, really had his breakthrough last fall. I know Dover is not, last year, not really the best comparison, but it is good to see that Tepensky, at least his Penske ORG ride, has speed. We go back to a more traditional intermediate track, and Blaney PERSON's going to be back firmly on the board for us. As youcan see, the Kislauski PERSON, we've got some issues. And that 0.76 is definitely, I don't think it's a true representation. Actually, it is. They had about 15th place race car. You got a second place finish.But we expect more. Well, you're just going to need more. Now, although they are lacking speed, this race is going to provide plenty of opportunities for Brackzowski PERSON once again. Two smoke and mirrors is way up to a top five. So that's definitely going to be on the board.And we can't write people off because, oh, he's been struggling. We can't write people off because they didn't have the practice speed. There are, what, 270-some laps in this race. 260 of them will matter for our elite hogs and dominators. Yeah, we need the whole race to be good if we're picking a Hamlin or a Do, or a Larson. But if we get a Brackzalowski, who can be $2,000, $3,000 cheaper,the packs in place differential that can be earned in a lap or two, right? So for Larson and Hanlon PERSON to score points points they've got to do it by running lap after lap after lap whereas a driver like brachislowski or chris busher or significantly cheaper who don't have to score as many points but also one of the key things of place differential is that you can score those points in five laps One of the key things to place differential is that you can score those points in five laps. You can make up that time or make up those points at the very end.You can go from a dead in the water pick in 250 and then 20 laps later, the guy was optimal. Larson and Hamlin and Byron PERSON, they can't afford to do that. They have to be better or longer. They have to accrue their fantasy points throughout the entire race by leaving laps and running fast laps. The benefit of these 8K drivers who are fast enough to be in the top tier, they can jump up. Now, at the same time, they could drop down really quickly as well. Highly volatile. I mean, everyone is volatile to that extent, but too long going didn't read despite RFK ORG struggles recently busher and Kazowski PERSON are firmly in play and I'm more than likely not going to qualify wellbecause they haven't been qualifying well because they haven't been practicing well so they're going to sit there right there in that teens spot and then we get the cautions at the end and it comes down to who's been better on restarts. And Brad Kazowski PERSON is a pretty good driver when it comes to restarts. So if anyone stands the gain, it's definitely going to be in play. So you don't want to overreact too much to their lack of speed because I know the idea is like, great.They haven't been fast. One more. It's just easier if I can just cross people off, less people would have to think about. This is not really going to be that week. Kansas GPE's style of racing is not going to afford you that luxury of just, yep, I can cross him off because he doesn't have speed.Not so fast, my friend. This is going to be a week where a lot of the drivers are going to be on the board. All right, next thing. Let's just talk about Kansas GPE in general. And what would be the best way to illustrate this on the screen? Oh, I don't know.We just put last year's Kansas GPE optimal on real quick. But the style of Kansas, typically intermediate track very wide. The restarts, you know, you think, oh, well, there's tons of room on restart, so we're good. Well, the drivers know there's tons of room and tons of speed on the restarts, and so they fill out every line. Four wide, five line. You're going to get tire rubs on restarts. You could get a wreck that takes out several drivers. I don't see that being that likely.You could once race, maybe, but either way, you really need to get out and clean air. And when we go four or five abreast, the driver that's leading is not always necessarily a shoe win to win the restart. Anyone could pop up after a side draft, a third car, and the mix could slide by, take the lead, and then lead for that cycle. So, and I think the best way to illustrate that is to look at the 23 spring race and look at all the different lap leaders. I mean, so many different people led laps in that race. Now, there was a couple that led the most, but there was plenty of opportunities for people to slide up front and lead laps, pick up some fast laps in the process,as you can see. Three starts a hairy, gets even hairier in the back. There can be all kinds of different issues that play out. It's a wide track. Now, once it goes green, it's fairly calm. But the problem then is because it's a wide track with banking that people love to run up near the wall to find the extra bit of speed. When you run up to the wall, it's extra speed.You get into the wall. You get tire rubs. You get cautions get tires you get cautions so you get cautions which reset the field which means more restarts which means more madness also keeps people on the lead lap but it also takes cars out because they got a tire rub some will rebound if they don't get into the wall too much completely tear the tire getting the way back. By the way, you expect plenty of cautions.Now, the next layer of that, because again, we're looking for actionable data. We know there will be cautions. Field resets, restarts, not necessarily one guy who runs away with the race. So we're thinking about all those things while we're trying to target our hogs. We're also thinking about those things as we're trying to pick our value picks as well. But then another idea is that a lot of the sorting out, while they can sort themselves out on the track, on the restarts, and during a green flag run, as we know, cream will rise to the top.It will be difficult for most to make it through dirty air. This car hates dirty air. This car hates traffic. But as we've seen in the past, if you have an elite ride like last week with Chase Elliott at Dover FAC, you can't make your way forward. Kyle Larson was able to make his way forward. Ross Chastain PERSON modestly made some gains, but it's not for everyone. Can't imagine, you know, Todd Gilland PERSON driving through the field at Kansas GPE.So you're going to need clean air. But the point, well, I kind of get enough on that one. Let's just go back to Cautions. Pit Road.So you can make gains during a green flag run. But a better place to make gains is going to be on pit road so we're going to want to look at pit road data i will go over that specifically to know the podcast will look at dover probably the most texas is kind of challenging to look at the pit road data because of all the crazy wonkiness of that race you can look at it if you want i've got it in thekansas folder if you've got the race for the prize package of inmo paypal cash out 30 bucks and you want to look at it if you want. I've got it in the Kansas folder if you've got the Race for the Prize package of Inmo PayPal Cash at $30. And you want to look at every little piece of data from the pit stops at Dover, from the pit stops at Texas GPE. I got it for you. And we'll go over that in another podcast, at least Dover FAC. But if you want to go through it and finally tune it with your comb, join us. But making games on Pit Road FAC, as we have seen in previous races,is determining our winners, is determining the outcomes. Kyle Bush had a terrific day last week at Dover FAC. It ends up having a solid fantasy day. It finishes up front. If you go back to Texas GPE, another day didn't work out for Kyle Larson PERSON, but if you look at his pit stops, having the number one pit stall was an incredible boost.Should be a boost again here at Kansas GPE. Having the number one pit stall, it's not always going to be the best thing because some people are going to stay out sometimes. Some people are going to take two tires. And again, the mad dash on a restart maybe makes that number one pit stall not as beneficial. You're going to be the fastest coming off.You're going to probably gain positions every time, but it's no guarantee that you're going to run away with the race. As we have seen, there's not one giant monster, 120 fantasy point score. Probably have to go back a while to find a Dover or Kansas race where one guy completely just shows up the field. Kurt Busch had a pretty solid one there in the spring. As you can see, we're seeing multiple drivers leading running fast laps, Kyle Larson, putting on a clinic back in the spring. As you can see, we're seeing multiple drivers leading running fast laps, Kyle Larson, putting on a clinic back in the spring of 2021. It's a different car, possibly a differenttime, no practice. Harder to read into that. I wouldn't lean too much. I really think we're going to see this thing spread out, fan out, and the lead's going to shift hands plenty of times, but it's not going to be too much of a surprise the drivers that are leading running fast laps. We want to try to narrow our pool down a little bit. Anyway, again, to summarize, restart's crazy. We're going to see different leaders. It means multiple hogs or dominators. You're going to more than likely need two to three in your lineup.But I wouldn't really worry too much because those two to three are going to be drivers that we expect. It's going to be the usual suspects that are running in the top five. Again, maybe you don't make it so hard on yourself when trying to predict who's going to lead. Maybe just try to predict who will be in a top five the most. And then if you have those drivers that you really believe can stay in the top five all day, pick two or three of those drivers and put them into your lineup. Hopefully you pick the guy that has the best day on pit road.Hopefully you pick a guy that avoids the tire of or cautions. And we've talked about a couple of the drivers already that have been really good at Kansas, Las Vegas, and have been trending in the right direction this season. Those all should be at the top of your list. All right. So as we go a little bit more into Kansas GPE and maybe some of the value drivers that have run well off this track recently, as I mentioned, 2311 PERSON has had a great set up at Kansas. Kurt Busch won, Bubba Wallace one, Tyler Reddick PERSON won. I know he stole the win for the most part last year, but that is Kansas GPE. I mean, you could argue that DannyHamlin stole his win. But if you're going to steal a win at Kansas GPE, I know it's a Voltaire race, crazy restarts, cautions, all of that nonsense. All the nonsense that makes it an exciting race, to be quite honest. You still need to be top five drivers throughout the race. Even when Tyler Reddick wins this race last year, that's the spring race with the fall race on. Even when Reddick wins, he had the second highest driver rating. He was running fast laps.His average running position was fifth. It does not end up in the optimal lineup, surprisingly. But again, as it is surprised to see him in terms of the fantasy scoreboard, taking a back seat to Larson leading a bunch of laps, and Hamlin leading a bunch of laps, Chase Elliott PERSON, who was really strong? No, it is not. Either not either way 2311 PERSON been very strongat this track 2311 has been very fast this season maybe not quite as fast as jr as a whole but tyler eddick PERSON has been colleague has been really good at this track. Now, will that carry over to this season? I don't know. I will say that Colleg ORG did make some games recently. They do not look like the same colleague as before,but it is worth mentioning that they were fast last year. And we're going to see, I believe, Justin Haley PERSON pop up on here somewhere. Heyley PERSON is your value pick. Haley, average running position of 21st, finishes 21st. Not the greatest day, but still is optimal halfway decent speed. If we look at, no, I thought you should call it was good.It's not bad, but let's look a little bit further. The reason why I mentioned it here he is again. In the spring bad, but let's look a little bit further. The reason why I mentioned it, here he is again. In the spring race, average running position was a little bit better of 18th. Or he finishes 18th. His average running position was 28th. But again, given the nature of this race, spins and cautions and restarts, it can work.Either way, he got the finish. Sure, maybe we'd like to see a little bit more speed, but if you look at his teammate, AJ Almondinger, who was also optimal, his average range position was 19th. Finishes 14th. So as we look at these optimal lineups in the spring, two colored cards were optimal. In the fall, another one was optimal. We go back to 2022. Hey, wouldn't you know it? It's another optimal collard car with an average running position of 17th, finishing 19th, Justin Haley PERSON. And we look atthe spring, 2022 race. We do not get a collard guard in this one. Too bad. So sad, but still, last three races, Collegas ORG got on the fancy scoreboard. Something worth keeping your eye on. And maybe you boost up Haley PERSON a little bit and say that maybe Haley's a little bit comfortable. I don't know if I would go that far.But it is worth mentioning and noting. It stood out to me, so I brought it up. Next guy I want to talk about Rickstowns Jr. Here he is in the 22 spring race. Maybe that's too long ago for you. But I would argue that this is a racetrack where Ricky Stenhouse Jr. PERSON could run well.We know the Dover and Bristol are some of the tracks where they take rubber and the multiple grooves that open up throughout a race may have a correlation or some similarities to dirt racing where drivers have to constantly move around and that suits Stenhouse PERSON's style. Maybe that's reading too deep into it.But if you looked at last week before Stenhouse PERSON had his issue, he was running inside the top 20, top 15ish, solid day for him as predicted. That team is headed in the right direction. Again, at Texas GPE, before some issues, they were really building some speed. They are slowly improving and hitting some tracks where they can succeed. And here you can see stinouse PERSON solidfinish into the 2020 spring race let's rewind it back let's see what else we got from stouts i think he has another optimal line of performance maybe it is 23 spring race finishes 12th average running position of 21st you know the average joining position of 21st probably not the greatest but again unlike dover PERSON where you kind of finish where you're supposed to run, Kansas GPE with the tire rubs, the restarts, pit road mayhem, mistakes, all of those things that can happen.And he was one of those mistakes in the 23 fall race, getting into the wall, but you want a guy up on the wall, getting some extra speed. Stenhouse PERSON is going to be there. It's going to be volatile. All or nothing. And again, Kansas is a race where we can chase place differential. If you can run around 20th, you can definitely take advantage of all the restart and madness at the end. You can be on the lead lap and snap seven spots or snatch seven spots at the very end.As you can see, Stenow ORG's getting a huge place differential boost. So I expect him to be halfway decent. And then the last I'll talk about track house who have decent speed. I think we'd pull Suarez PERSON up. His finishes at this racetrack have been solid. And again, this is a week where youcould just look at finishes. Looking at driver rating and average running positions, fine. It's good. It's a more telling stat for actual performance. But then when we factoring Kansas GPE doesn't necessarily reflect actual performance. Kansas is, were you there at the end? What'd you do at the end? What happened when he went to the pay window? You know, oh, he ran well all day, but then he pooched the last restart. That hurts. So Suarez PERSON, his driver ratings probably aren't that great, but they're probably good enough to keep him in the show. His track house car was good enough to keep him in the show. And we look at his last five races, six races, even with the fledgling track house, through the modern track house. With what, other than the poor spring races around the 12th place, 13th place finish.If he remains to be the value pick you can pack in some place differential then he's going to be on the board all right let's talk about dover PERSON a little bit see if we can get some actionable information about what we learned at dover i'll throw the dover PERSON Optimal lineup on our screen. Hope you guys are having a good start to the week. I am. As you can see with the build,there's a strange one. Three expensive dominators. How can three people dominate a race? Three hogs. And then you get three value plays. Borderline, three punts.Let's just say three punts. Triple punt at Dover FAC as I live and breathe. So let's just talk about the racing first. Before that, I just want to say, man, I love racing. I love NASCAR ORG. I love doing this.If you don't like NASCAR ORG, why are you playing? You don't like NASCAR ORG? Why do you put out content? If you do this stuff just to make money, whether it's playing or content, there's plenty of ways to make money. You guys listening, you're here because you love it.You feel the same as me. You look, NASCAR ORG, you enjoy building lineups, you have fun with it. You may not always agree with NASCAR ORG's decisions, or you might get a little riled up by a moment or two, but that washes away in the end.You love it. I'm glad you're here. Positive vibes here. Share this with other people. You want to come to a happy place. Come join us, racefor prize.com, bimmo, pippalcashat ORG. You don't even have to subscribe. Love for you to subscribe to the YouTube ORG channel.But watch the videos like the videos. Hey, it's also going to be Cinco de Mayo for this Kansas GPE race. Huh? We got Kansas race. We got Cinco de Mayo the same day. How do you say Kansas in Spanish LANGUAGE? Well, it's not really Spanish LANGUAGE where I looked it up, actually. Kansas or Kanza tribe of the Sioux NORP family that lived along a river in an area and gave it the tribal name. The name translates as South Wind People NORP or Wind People.How fitting. How fitting wind people. Let's talk about Arrow PRODUCT. Synchronicity, maybe. Some people might bemoan the arrow issues that we saw last week and complain about NASCAR ORG, not me. Look, it's a problem, but it's a fascinating problemto break down and like all problems they can be solved. It's fun to solve problems. So you can approach it of, oh, stupid arrow, it would be negative. We're like, huh, it's just the new challenge and see how we work through this one. So we've got arrow blocking and drivers complaining about, fans are complaining about car hates traffic. It's a defensive car. You know, the original six was an offensive car. And then we've got the new L. Car hates traffic. It's a defensive car. You know, the original six was a an offensive car. And then we've got the new element, which Larson brings up is the not just rearview mirror driving, the digital mirror driving, using the digital camera to easily spot the car behind you and make blocks. And he argues, get rid of the mirror, go back to the regular mirror. It's tougher to see, and it's tougher to block people. Now, this is also the guy that every year will tweet out and be outspoken about, you know, the stick guy. All right, that's okay.Basically, there's a dude in the pits, waving sticks, alerting the driver to what lines he needs to block or what lines are the fastest. Larson doesn't like those either. He says it puts too much into the team's hands. It makes it too much of a coaching sport.He wants more of drivers driving, drivers finding lines, drivers doing their thing as opposed to just simply looking in the pits. Okay, guys waving the sticks like that, so I go here. Oh, he's doing that, so I just go here. It takes less out of the driver's hand. So he doesn't like single sticks.So obviously he doesn't like the digital mirror. I don't think they're getting rid of the digital mirror. Bazi PRODUCT is on the other end of like, hey, man, the way forward for the sport is not the way backwards. You want to improve things in life period. You don't get rid of technology. We're not Luddites NORP.We don't ban things. We advance through tech. So I don't know. I mean, he's right, like in a sense that if you want that driving, go get some street stocks. Go watch late models.NASCAR ORG's gotta kind of move forward. Drivers have to adapt. Digital mirrors are here to stay. You're gonna have arrow blocking. It's gonna be tough to pass in traffic. It was very tough for anyone to pass in traffic.At Dover FAC, starting position meant a lot. Keeping that starting position. Finish well like Daniel Hemrick PERSON. A decent starting position, hung on all day, had a clean day on pit road, didn't make any mistakes. It's lucky at the end, catches the break, but that's just the way this racing is going to play out. Probably could see that a little bit at Kansas GPE as well.That's just the way this racing is going to play out. Probably could see that a little bit at Kansas GPE as well. Air is here to stay. Blocking is here to stay. And even for the leaders, Kansas GPE is a wide track. And we think, oh, well, you're going to be able to pass the leader at Kansas GPE.There's enough space to get around them. Probably not. And we just go back to what Larson said. Larson at Las Vegas. When he won, Tyler Reddick PERSON had a faster car. Tyler Reddick was running him down earlier this season. What did Larson do?Went straight to his mirror, watched his mirror, made the blocks, despite not having a faster car, won the race. Denny Hamlin last week, got to the lead. Larson said, man, there's nothing I was going to be able to do. Just going to take my line away. I'm never going to be able to pass. So that is a benefit to when we're trying to find a hog or a dominator that we can feelconfident that a leader wants to get in the clean air can run away and start really piling up the points. But they've got to get in the clean air. And we need long green flag runs, which we will have some in this race it's not going to be all madness but i would say that there will be fewer green flag runs this week than you get at a dover and obviously there's a lot less laps but it is a situation that we got to talk about and think about i don't know how much that really helped you. Just fun.

Speaker 12205.92s - 2206.86s

I like NASCAR ORG.

Speaker 02208.46s - 3970.96s

So last fall, Kansas GPE wrapping up a little bit more. There were a lot of pit issues. There were a lot of tire issues. There were even more tire issues, mainly from the rubs, from any wall in the spring race.I don't see any reason why that won't continue. When you're running the wall, you rub the wall, you blow tires. There's more pit stops. You're going to have issues. I mean, even in the fall race, which didn't quite have as much volatility, there were issues of running out of tires that gives you a picture.And if you're running out of tires, that means a lot of pit stops. If there's a lot of pit stops, there's a lot of opportunities to gain spots where your car wasn't really fast enough to gain. There's also a lot of opportunities where your fast car can lose spots you couldn't afford to lose. So you're going to place a high priority on pit crews, and that's why this week we will do a Dover FAC recap of the pit stops. Look at the averages. Also, you just want to follow Bozzi on Twitter ORG.I made a link that should get you to his article every week. And that link is, they pulled up, tiny URL.com slash pit, Bozzi PERSON. That's P-I-T-B-O-Z-I. I'm driving my car. I cannot write this down at the moment. Thanks, dude. I'm on a treadmill. I'm on an elliptical. I'm hanging upside down. I don't know what you're doing. Tiny URL.com. T-I-N-Y-U-R-L.com slash pit, B-O-Z-I. That'll link you to his article. Or you can just follow Bazi Tatrovich PERSON on Twitter. And I know what's going to happen.Hey, who is that guy? I'm going to get all these DMs and, hey, what was that link? Set myself up for that one. Either way, you read his article, he'll give you a breakdown with pit stops. You can also check it out here. I've got it, raced for prize.com.And I think it's going to be worth your money to try to help you differentiate some of the drivers, especially in the midpack. If we're going to see a midpack guy rise above what you expect, he's going to need to have a good day on pit road. Those value drivers cannot afford to have bad days. We want to look at who consistently has good days, keeps himself in the game, maybe makes some gains. And they're going to be really helpful. So we're expecting a lot of pit roadssituations, priorities being placed on our pit crews. Look, it's no surprise. Does Denny Hamelin have the fastest car? It's one of the fastest and he'll admit that, but he's also always put in a position to demonstrate speed. If you have a pit crew that consistently keeps you in the top five, your car's going to be fast, folks. If you have a pit crew that's constantly burying in the field, then your car is going to look slow in dirty air. And it's not a real surprise. Hamlin PERSON's just checking every box.You can't just simply have a fast car. You can't just simply be a good driver. You need to be fast. You need a good car. You need a good car. You need a good pick crew. You also have to play the strategy right as well.Harry PERSON restarts. We've talked about that. I mean, I think to illustrate that, if you look at last year, Larson, as you can see on the board, scored a lot of fantasy points, let a lot of laps. That's the Dover Race EVENT, sorry. We'll just leave the Dover Race EVENT up there.But I know I'm jumping over to Kansas again, but on that point 33, Kansas last year, Larson having a heck of a day. Actually, I can, I'll only put up the Kansas GPE laps to show you the breakdown of this. Just to illustrate the volatility that we're about to get ourselves into, which is a little bit different than Dover FAC. Not quite the same mayhem that you get at Texas GPE, but again, we know dirty air is tough.We know these cars hate to be in traffic. And although we said at the beginning, the cream rises at the top chase ellie is able to work his way forward at dover kyle larcen PERSON is able to work his way forward at at dover that's not always the case so we look at that race from last year kansas and you can see on the screen all the laps larsson leading laps having a good old swell old time flintstones and then you see on lap 132, restarts first, drops to 11th.As they fan out, as the car's side draft, if you just have a slight bobble or you just end up in the wrong spot, you plummet. And then once Larson falls into 11th on lap 134, he submerges even further as far down as 21st in dirty air. It ain't the same game anymore. Clean air is king, clean air is speed, it is a drug, it is nicotine. And so then he has to slowly try to grind his way out. Spoiler alert, he doesn't really grind his way out.I could have benefited from a better pit stop here. Out of the way, it takes time and effort. It's late in the show. And hey, we need you to lead laps and run fast laps. Fortunately, he'd already got enough. But again, he is about back into the top 10. He finally is able to work his way forward because he's Kyle Larson PERSON.But man, that's tough. It's a tough one, man. Three starts. Any other driver? I don't think they're pulling that off. Any other car, I don't think they're pulling it off. I could see Larson Hamlin PERSON doing it. But if you got, you know, maybe Tyler Redick PERSON,but I think that gives you a pretty good idea. All right, real quick, let's think that gives you a pretty good idea. All right, real quick, let's look at our Dover FAC optimal lineup. You might have seen some of the notes on the screen that explained how those guys got to where they got. Obviously, Hamlin, Lars, and Truix ran up front all day. If we look at our top 10 on the DFS scoreboard from Hamlin, Larsen, Truex, Elliot,Kyle Busch, Ryan Blaney, Bowman Gibbs, Himrick, Chastain PERSON. No, I mean, Himmrick's going to be the one surprise. We'll talk about that in a second, but really, I'm just going to tell you right now. Track position mattered. So he started up front. He dropped back, but he didn't drop back too far that he was still on the lead lap and he was still hanging in there.Collick had a little bit more speed this week. Now, if it's the beginning of the race, you're rostering him, starting 14th, you're like, well, of course this play didn't work. He's running around 19th. There's no way that that works, but there is one way that it works. So he's able to hang in there. And as we had said earlier in the week,people pretty much finish about where they run. And that is typically the case and where he should have probably finished his 19th, which is a good day for colleague. But what he does is he runs along and catches the caution that vaults him into the top 10 in track position.As we know, clean air was king. And he just stays up there, not because he had a better race car, was a better driver. It's just incredibly hard to pass. And so running long, catching the caution at the end has a terrific effect. Now, he was able to do that because he had good starting position, was able to stay in the top 20. And he was in a position to take that chance, where some of the drivers, most able to stay in the top 20, and he was in a position to take that chance, whereas most of the drivers in the back really couldn'tbecause they were already one, two laps down. Now, as for the rest of our top 10, they all had top 10 driver ratings for the most part. Other than the Elliott Hot Rod, the Larson Hot Rod, the Trux ORG Hot Rod, Bush was starting hot rod, the Trux hot rod. Bush was starting up front, Blaney was starting up front, Bowman was starting towards the front, Gibbs PERSON a little further back.Chastain PERSON. Now, I mean, those are the drivers when we said who's the guys that could make gains at this track, given the correlations in the data that we're looking at, it was exactly those drivers. If anyone in the field was able to pass, Truex has demonstrated this season in the past, he can do it. Morrison, Elliot as well, Chastain PERSON.All of the data suggested that they could get through. The rest of the guys had track position and did their thing. We slide down. We got Suarez PERSON, just having a decent day as expected. Didn't have track position. I was able to manage a solid finish.Gregson PERSON, I'm not going to overreact. Again, clean air was king. I have a clean day on pit road. And then just go out there and arrow block every single person on the track. He got a lot of heat from Kyle Busch PERSON. Kyle Busch PERSON is more likely doing the same thing.I'm not going to overreact. Oh, wow, this Stewart PERSON has cars faster than I'm not going to react that way. Oh, wow. Gregson PERSON is getting better performance to the other S.H. I'm not going to react. My big takeaway is he had clean air.He had track position. You could not pass. If he started 25th, he would have finished around 20th. Obviously, I can't prove that. That's where I stand. It's look at the rest of our optimal lineup. Corey LaJoy, this is a typical Dover FAC optimal performance. You finish or you run. You score enough fancy points points him running long really benefits his score just in hayley we just needed savings and he was the best of the bus not really a bust but he alsogets some attrition points from the cars wrecking out boom boom boom and then he runs long and gets a spotter of two by running a little bit longer similar torick, but Haley PERSON was not on the lead lap. So he couldn't make tremendous gains, but he was able to gain over the other value picks, making him the better option than Zane Smith PERSON. There's your often breakdown. And quick speed review, you say?Yeah, we'll do a speed review. Long pot. There's a sip on some gatorade on the treadmill. Overlapse. I don't really need to go over the speed that Hamlin Larson Truix ORG had. They had it.One, two, three in terms of top five laps. Check. Kyle Busch PERSON. You might say we are overreacting to. Did they find speed? Did they figure it out?I don't know. If Kyle Busch starts the 20th of Kansas GPE, I don't really believe he's going to be a hot rod. Now, if he starts 20th, again, because of the nature of the racing, he can still get into the top five at the end. But I would argue that Bush just benefited from clean air. If Noah Gregson PERSON has a top 10 car and I'm not overreacting, then I'm not going to overreact to Cowbush. Chase Elliott drove through the field. That's speed. Gregson, as for mentioned, I think that's just a clean air situation, running clean. Give the kid credit. He's running well. Blaney PERSON, maybe clean air boosted him a little bit, but he has checked the box at Doverrecently. There is plenty of speed in this car. Bowman, you're going to have to address, was this just the fact that it's Dover FAC? And he's great at Dover FAC. And now he turns back into the pumpkin or the 15th place driver that he's been for most of the season. Hemrick PERSON, we've already discussed.It's about 20th place race car. We'll get into that in a second. Actually, let's do a little bit more in conjunction as we talk about it. I will also mention, where's Ross Chastain PERSON? Although he didn't finish that well. 12th did make some gains, was able to make some passes.Probably would like to see it a little bit more speed. But again, it was the Hamlin-Larsion Truex day, Elliott Day ORG, everybody can't be a winner. Not the worst day for a track house. There's still plenty of speed in this car, and this could be a big week for them.The ones that I think that stand out the most at the moment are the RFK ORG rides. Kislowski PERSON, no speed. I mean, just look at his laps, not going anywhere. Now, yes, before the issues, but still, before the issues, maybe, you know, you give him a full 400 laps and it's a different story. I will entertain that.But from the laps before the issues, the 13th place race car. Top 15, maybe top 10. Now, that doesn't mean write them off. If we say, let's be charitable and say, it's a top 10 car. Top 10 car will be fast enough at Kansas, given the nature of racing. But overall, if we are slotting the teams, R of K ORG, lookingat Texas, looking at Dover, the speed's not there. And Busher PERSON, in a similar situation, did not really show us much in terms of laps. I mean, like, it's almost like if we take where Brackzalski PERSON left off, and had his issue, and we say, oh, what does teammate do for the rest of the race?You could argue dirty air, whatever. It's not a Chase Elliott PERSON type car. It's not a Kyle Larson PERSON top car. He's not going anywhere. And that's after a poor Texas GPE race.Average running position, 15.5. This never really goes anywhere. He's right there in that Joey Lagano category at the moment. One of the guys on the Ascent we'll talk about on second, Austin Cendrick PERSON. Josh Barry, before his issue at Texas, had a top 15 car. Goes to Dover FAC.15.5 average running position. They're turning in the right direction. They're making slight gains. You got to get top 15s before you can get top 10s, before you can get top 5s. It'll probably take all season to be a top 10 consistently. But they are finding speed.The team is growing together, and it will be interesting to watch. Weeks ago, we didn't really want anything to do with Barry PERSON. Now he's firmly in place. He's qualifying well, which makes it hard to roster him,but then again, it's going to make him an interesting GPP to play. Extra P there for me. Stenhouse PERSON, I already mentioned, making some speed gains. I know the race didn't work out for Stenhouse PERSON, but look, before his issue, his average running position was 10.8.There is speed in this car. He's got to avoid the issues, but like Barry PERSON, they're making gains. Briscoe took a step back after a pretty solid Texas GPE race. Surviving. I don't know if you want to read too much into Texas GPE because of the craziness. But you could say the step back is just that Briscoe is not good at Dover FAC.His team's always struggled at Dover FAC in his word. So maybe we don't want to overreact to an average running position of 18.4. That's going to be up to you. Clearly, SHR, looking like 15th to 20th place cars, sometimes a little bit better, sometimes better in clean air with Gregson PERSON. The priest is just all over the place with his issues.Really challenging. Hard to see him remaining with his team. Hard to see this team remaining next year. May not be necessarily, Priest PERSON gets fired. It's just that the team doesn't exist. Charters are sold. And if you're looking to sell, it's probably the right opportunity. The only reason we probably haven't sold the charter yet is because the charter agreement hasn't been agreed upon. I'm sure that as soon as they get an agreement and say, all right, we're going to keep the charters.Tony PERSON's going to start wheeling and dealing. And Priest PERSON will be out. Brisco was on the final year of his contract. He could be out. I could easily see him staying with Gregson PERSON. There's a lot of potential there.He's got a very good sponsorship relationship. So you keep him. You're obviously not getting rid of Roddy Chilters PERSON. I don't know if Barry PERSON is a mainstay. If he switch brisco over there, there's going to be a lot of interesting conversations to be had.I don't know what his contract is. Cindrick PERSON. Yes, that's right. We've got to start talking about Austin Cendrick PERSON. And one of the things you'll see when we get into pit stop data video, his pick is's fast.He's starting to put together some consistently good races. Good Texas, 17.6 average running position didn't make mistakes, didn't really show any speed, but he put himself in position that maybe he could make some gains. That's really what we want, especially if we're going to get super cheap Cendrick PERSON moving forward. Really lean on that pit crew. As a solid down pit road at Kansas, runs in the top 20 where he's supposed to,grab some place differential at the very end. I haven't really considered Cendric much this year, but now that he's showing a little bit more speed and consistency, avoiding mistakes. And in theory, if you run a little bit closer to the front, you're going to deal with less squirrels, as they say now a lot, right?They're always like messing around with the squirrels. When did that become the thing to talk about? Let's talk about the battle of the backpack. Very similar to the truck series now. The Cup series has a backpack. The Xfinity PRODUCT has, you know, your top tier,and then kind of secondary mid-tier in the teens, and there's a mid-pack, and then there's a deep backpack. The Truck Series has a top tier, around 1 to 20-ish, and then a backpack. I would argue the Cup series is probably the same. You got your top 20,who can all hang on the lead lap, battle it, the cars are pretty similar, they're all sharing data. They all know what each other does. They all know what to do. Very hard to differentiate.But in the backpack, the cars are clearly marketedly slower. Less experience. Lower funded. And so if we were to look at that backpack, although he wasn't in the race, we will go with the Jones PERSON car, which I've talked about before. It's probably a 20th place car.But Eric Jones PERSON being maybe one of the most underrated drivers, guy that I don't necessarily love or like or anything, but a guy that runs better than his equipment, an exceptional driver who really does deserve more credit than he gets, absolutely wheels the Legacy Motor Club ORG car beyond its potential every week.And he can get that 20th place car to the top 15 with ease. Heim is probably about a 25th place race car, which is really nothing to be sad about. Keep hits on lap 316. Then we get that caution that elevates a couple guys who run long. Right. You see Justin Haley PERSON ran a little bit longer, so he gained some spots in that situation.I'm just pitt a little early, and that hurt his finishing position. Could have easily been a 20 first place race car. So I would argue at the top of the backpack is the Jones PERSON car with a lot of potential with Jones in the car. Even with Himes, it's not terrible. Corley-Loyoynext ORG on our list. Put together two solid races in a row, running 21st-ish at Texas, running 21st, 41.6 at Dover FAC. They're kind of the next team that I would slot into that backpack.POSAver ORG probably a step behind him. Next on our list are the Collin Cars ORG, which could be higher or lower because of the recent surge. AJ Elmendinger and Cleaner Air had a tremendous race finishing 13th. Daniel Hemrick PERSON got a huge finish, but still was running inside the top 20 all day. So you could make an argument that below Jones PERSON,you could slot in the Hemrick PERSON cars. And even Ty Dillon PERSON, given all the craziness at Texas GPE, had a solid race, which is very hard to read. Their data is very race dependent at the moment,but with all those different variables, at least we can say that Colleg ORG is producing results at the moment and that we could say that they are at the top of the midpack with Jones PERSON. And they're not a team that we can ignore at Kansas GPE, not a team we can ignore at a race where there could be a lot of gains made through attrition, a lot of gains made on pit road.Next on our list would be John Hunter Nemechek with Legacy ORG. And Nemechek is starting to remind me a lot of old Todd Gilden PERSON. Todd Gilden's probably 20th, and we could throw him into this conversation as well. I would say Jones, colleague, and then probably Todd PERSON. You could move colleague around wherever you want. Todd and Lejoy, I think, are about the same spot.21st, 20th place race cars. And Gillen, earlier in his career, not that long ago, more of a 25th place driver, and that's where I think John Hunter Neumichick PERSON is at the moment. This team has a lot of room for growth, but you listen to interviews with Jimmy Johnson every week, and it doesn't seem like they are growing or making any of the gains that they need to make.And so I believe that old J.A. Chin is going to remain a 25th place car for a while. We're looking at the backpack now as we slide down the backpack we're getting at some really more rough drivers that are attrition plays that just survive try to make not too many mistakes as you can see illustrated on your screen in the dover, the Dover FAC, Hayley, Smith, Heim, Burton, they all finished three laps down. Now, we know Haley PERSON ended up in theultimate lineup, three laps down. And we see this in the truck series where it's like, oh man, you're not on the lead lap. Well, it doesn't matter because your job, Haley Smith, Heim, Burton is not to score 50 fantasy points. Your job is to be the best play amongst your peers. There's three cars, four cars, five cars, three laps down. Can you be the best of those?Can you get maximized finishing position and place differential? And that's what's the deciding factor. So a lot of times we look at a value play across the entire pool. Sometimes it would make more sense when you're picking that punt to say which punt amongst the punts. Because it will come down to the end of the race and who can just be the best guy three laps down. Haley ended up being that option finishing 23rd just ahead of Zane Smith PERSON. And give or take, that's kind of where I would bounce them around.A Rickware versus the tertiary spire car. That being said, Zane Smith has put together two good races at Texas and Dover FAC. Haley's been halfway consistent throughout the season. Again, though, 23rd and 24 are boosted finishes. They're around 28th place cars. They need some boost.They need some help just to get there. They need a little bit of an additional boost. Burton PERSON to me is just dead in the water. So if I was ranking, I can't really separate Zane and Haley on a given weekend. I think I tend to lean a little more Haley PERSON,but Zane PERSON can be inflated by, you know, practice or whatever, but I don't know. And then Cass PERSON is just, you know, you're straight attrition play if he gives you more savings. But typically we're not getting a great discount on Kaz PERSON. And so he can be left out of the conversation because you can pay $100 more and get much more upside with Haley and Smith PERSON. If they were to take Kaz's salary and drop it down to the BJ McLeod PERSON range or just halfway there,then Kaz would start to be somebody we would have to consider every week. Draft King so far has been reluctant to do that. And, you know, it is better than a BJ ORG car. This is basically BJ McLeod PERSON with a better car. If we could get a BJ ORG price, sounds strange to say. On Casgraala PERSON, then he would start to be in this conversation,even though he doesn't have the finishing position potential, but the savings really would open up some of those expensive drivers to talk. That's going to do it. I think we covered everything we need to know kansas FAC do over a little bit of aerotococan fun times here at the fantasy nascar podcast brought to you by racedeprise.com go to the website vimmo paypal cash app 30 bucks give you all the may sheets we're going to have an awesome month of May this is on the racing calendar it highlight of my year every year I'm pumped you're pumped we love this stuff it's good to be a part of a community wherewe just love and we're happy and we're positive and we're not moaning and complaining and I think that's one of the reasons why people come over to this channel hey I don't want to spend my time listening to complaining and whining. This is my free time. This is my YouTube time. This is my relaxing moment in the car on the treadmill. Let's be positive. Happy vibes. Feel good. Get excited about NASCAR. We got a Saturday night Kansas GPE truck race, which will be absolutely awesome. Trust me,we'll talk about that in the Kansas Truck Race EVENT podcast. It'll be exciting. It'll be wild. You got Cinco de Mayo EVENT. And even if you want it, you can watch the F1 Miami Race EVENT. How about that Miami de Mayo?That should be kind of fun. Friday night, you got some dirt racing. It's also going to be taking place in Kansas GPE with a high limit. Larson will be out there. See probably several cup guys. And we saw Chastain running the dirt race last week near Dover FAC.It's fun times. The high limit circuit's awesome. Basically traveling around. But like dolphins following a battleship, wherever the battleship ports, they follow along to, and high limit unloads it's pretty cool manit's a great idea i love what they've got going on you got all kinds of sports going on everything is awesome oh yeah and not to mention the kentucky derby i think it's a 657 p.m post there you go find myself always looking that up like what time is the actual race? 6.57. You may want to pace yourself, dude. Nah.First real post at 10.30. That's when I start. That's when this horse leaves the gate. All right, well, if your horse leaves the gate at 1030, you better be able to last till 6.57. That's a lot of mint juleps, bro.It's a lot of hot browns. I just eat a couple hot browns. That'll keep me going. If you haven't hot brown is the old browns of famous Louisville Hotel ORG. Great place to say. Too expensive, but sometimes you've got to spend some money and live life.Fancy, but they invented the hot brown it's the traditional kentucky NORP derby sandwich you can make it on your own make one make a mint jule it you want to eat or drink it i don't say you have to drink or anything but uh embrace the derby i mean you even got 10 30 a.m on friday the oaks will begin so you got the oaks to watch get your app out. Get some derby bets in. Get a fancy hat. Dress up. What a week in this will be. Who's excited? I'm excited. Great times. Lye. And you don't even have to buy like expensivewith you don't have to get old Forrester ORG. Get some cheap stuff. Save some money. And when you save that money, Benmoppaio cash shop, $30. Get the Mickey D's ORG. Diapers and daycare. Help out. Hey, old pal. Race surprise. Bless to have you guys here. Love you guys.Thanks for staying for that last little thing that that was. Trip the light fantastic.