Guardians and Mets starts sustainable?

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This is Double Play ORG, a baseball podcast. Here's Dustin Swedelson and Adam Burke PERSON.

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Back at it again, it's the Double Play ORG podcast. I am Dustin Sweetelson alongside my guy, Adam Burke, where we have a lot to discuss this week on the program. Just want to take a minute. Thank you for making us a part of your day, however you may be listening, whichever platform it may be. The vibes today, Adam PERSON, are immaculate. You know why? And I know we're annoying people. I see the tweets. We get all the messages forwarded to us. You're annoyed. This is not a Guardians and Mets ORG podcast.However, if we're going to talk about the vibes being up when it comes to certain baseball teams, I think anyone who is unbiased today would start to talk about what your team and my team have done over the last, I don't know, week or so in baseball. What's going on, buddy?

Speaker 156.72s - 76.8s

Hey, what's up, man? Good to chat with you again here. And yeah, it's always a little bit more fun when your team is doing well. And certainly my team is doing very well. I mean, the first team in baseball to win 15 games and the first team in baseball to win 16 gamesand your Mets, good series against the Dodgers ORG. So those are positive vibes. It helps you get going on a Monday here, that's for sure.

Speaker 077.84s - 123.1s

Here's the thing. I think it's because we're riding some highs and lows. I think both of us were a little more bullish on both teams coming into the year, especially your guardians. Then with the Mets ORG, I initially thought that they could contend for the wild card,for that final wild card spot in the National League ORG. And then it looked really brutal out of the gates. But then you factor in the weather and some of the scheduling and you realize, hold on. This team's played the toughest schedule in baseball to start, and now all of a sudden they're on a heater.It just feels good. And then your team, by the way, went through an issue with Shane Bieber PERSON where they lost him for the year and we wondered how they'd recover. Gavin Williams is still on the IL ORG. It just feels different when you ride those highs and lowsand now we're on the upswing.

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Well, I mean, for the Guardians ORG, let's see what happens here going forward. I mean, Boston ORG comes in walking very, very wounded now. Tristan Kossis PERSON is going to be out for a while. That's a big problem for them. Obviously, the starting pitching has been incredible, but this offense and defensively, it's a really, really bad baseball team with Trevor PERSON's story out,which is a problem when you face Cleveland ORG because they put so many balls in play, put a lot of pressure on the defense. But then a road trip to Atlanta and Houston GPE. And I realize

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that Houston GPE is really stumbling out of the gate. But if you look at a lot of their expected metrics,

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if you look at, you know, base runs and Pythagorean win loss and all these different types of things, like that's a team that's really underperforming right now that should get substantially better, I think, as the season goes along. The Angels ORG are a better team. The Tigers ORG are a better team. So look, you know, I get it.People are going to, you know, downplay what the Guardians have done here so far because they're eight and two against the A's and the White Sox ORG. Like, it is what it is, right? I mean, they've played a very weak schedule to open up the season.

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That being said, everything is running differently for this team.

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They are optimizing their lineup. They are using their entire 26-man roster. They've got Tyler Freeman and Centerfield PERSON, who's not only playing, you know, pretty well offensively, he's been ridiculously good defensively for a guy who's never played there before. So, like, yes, they've played a really shit schedule to this point. And I realize that people are going to hold that against them.But they are maximizing every ounce of production and every potential matchup advantage that they have out of this team that is pretty flawed. But Kyle Monsardo PERSON is raking in the minor leagues. He'll be up here very, very soon. And they're going to get better as the season goes along from a talent standpoint. So they're doing what they're supposed to do. And people get pissed off about this, but it's like they don't make the schedule.No. They can only play the teams that are in front of them. And they've done what they're supposed to do against those bad teams. And there's something to be said about being able to do that. Yeah.

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And look, they're hitting. And if they're going to overcome the Bieber PERSON injury, I think a lot of us factored in why we thought Cleveland would be good this year, Adam PERSON is, you know, the pitching was so dominant, had the potential to be such a great staff. Well, if you're going to lose Bieber, if McKenzie isn't going to be what we all thought he was going to be, you're going to have to hit more.And really for the Guardians, it's hit at all outside of Jose Ramirez PERSON, right? Because coming into the year, Jose Ramirez PERSON was pretty much the only guy you could rely on for any sort of power production. So hold on. You look at things now. Josh Naylor is picking up where he left off last year and the power is absolutely stillthere. The average is there. He is a locked in middle of the order bat right now. And he had a moment the other day. Can we talk about with the walk off and the slamming of the bat? It feels like this guy has an energy that the rest of the organization just feeds off of. When we talk about, I opened with the Immaculate vibes. He is the originator of the vibes for theguardians right now. Feels like the perfect guy to have in a clubhouse like that. And the crazy thing was it wasn't even a walkoff.

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It was a home run in the fifth inning.

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Is that what it was? Where he smashes himself in the head.

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I thought it was a walk off. That's funny now. Well, last year he had the walk off and then he had butted Terry Francona PERSON, which was another interesting moment there. Look, you know, you talk about the Immaculate vibes thing. And I'm a data-driven guy, right?I don't, I have a really hard time wrapping my head around things that are not quantifiable. Clubhouse chemistry is not really quantifiable. It just kind of exists and it's a thing. It's a thing.

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But you do know in baseball, when a clubhouse is in pretty good shape, but when a clubhouse is in bad shape, like it leaks over to the field in a big way. This is probably the closest knit team in Major League Baseball ORG, if not very, very close to it. And a guy like Naylor PERSON, like the dude is psychotic on the field, right?Like it looks like he has rabies. But then when you get him in an interview, very calm, collected responses, a lot of praise for his teammates. Like, it's, it's insane to me how just the dude is so high

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strong on the field, but then off the field, like he's your normal, really nice Canadian NORP guy. Like, it's crazy. But the other thing about this is nailers raking, quons on base a ton, Jose Ramirez PERSON, as we're recording this pod on Monday morning, 239, 253, 402, 281 weighted on base average, 264 Woba,so the ex-Woba, so the contact quality is really bad. 84 WRC plus. They are 16 and 6, and their best player has contributed virtually nothing to this team.

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Yeah. I mean, look, Jimenez PERSON is hitting. That helps pick up the slack. You mentioned Kwan's hitting 358. That's the second best average so far on the season. I know it's early in the year,but these are all things that we thought were going to happen last year. And for whatever reason, they didn't because a couple of years ago, Kwan PERSON had a really good season. Jimenez was a productive offensive player. All of a sudden, you start getting any production from Jose Ramirez PERSON, especially anything close to what he's done his entire career. Offense is legit. They're going to carry them. That division stinks. The Royals ORG found out the hard way what it's like when you play a real team like the Orioles. And maybe the Guardians ORG, when they hit that part of their schedule, they'll come back down to earth as well that remains to be seen but asof right now you have to feel good about things they've won seven of eight and they've won four in a row

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and look they're already up eight games on minnesota and i know that minnesota has a couple of games in hand but i mean that was thought to be you know the class of this central division and it simply isn't. I mean, there are injuries in play. I mean, Yelan Duran PERSON being out in the bullpen is kind of a big deal. Other bullpen's been pretty good otherwise.

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You know, bullpen doesn't matter if you can't get it to them with the lead.

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Exactly. And that's a big thing right now for Minnesota ORG. But I mean, they have a really good rotation. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan Bailey over, really, really good one, two, three. But I didn't think this offense was very good coming into the season. It hasn't been. And I also think, and this is something we'll talk about later on in the showhere, Major League Baseball ORG is at a crossroads from a home run standpoint. There is a big time power problem in Major League Baseball right now. And when you look at Minnesota ORG and you look at the offensive success that they've had over the last few seasons, you know, especially back at that 2019 year where everybody was hitting home runs like crazy, they're a power-driven lineup. And yeah, it makes sense because of the weather for them to start off a little bit slow in that department,as most teams do. But I'll talk about this later on in the program. Like power is slowly evaporating in the big leagues. And if you're an offense that is wholly dependent on that like Minnesota ORG largely is, that's a problem. And so when you look at this thing,Guardians are plus 120 over at draft Kings to win the central twins 3 to 1, Tigers, Royals, 340 and 5 to 1 respectively. Like this may be a situation. I'm not going to say Cleveland ORG has already won the division because it's a ridiculous thing to say, especially with their strength of schedule. But they are positioned really, really well because they're going to get better as the seasongoes along with the guys in the minor leagues. And I think Kansas City, this is about as good as they get. And I think Detroit GPE might improve a little bit. But at this point in time, I mean, if you're looking at division races here, it's not locked up by any means. And I'm definitely not a count my chickens guy.I mean, I'm a Cleveland ORG band born and bread. But like, they are positioned really, really well already. And we're not even through April yet.

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No, I completely agree. I want to get into this home run thing. We can push some of the other stuff to later in the show. So the twins, remember back in 2019, this is an organization that adapted to the all or nothing approach really before anyone else. They set a home run record in 2019 for all of baseball.I think the Braves last year tied them, but didn't break that record. And remember, the Braves play at the second highest altitude in all of baseball at home, which is crazy when you think about it. Like the Rockies are number one and the Braves are actually number two. Minnesota ORG, even with the cold and all that, they had the record and they're still tied with the Braves with the most home runs in a single season as an organization.And you look at their lineup and you're just like, I don't think anything about this lineup is special. Byron Bucksman PERSON still hasn't homered, which is, I mean, talk about disappointing players that you had high expectations for in their career and he just can't stay healthy, but even now he's not hitting. And there is no power production for them.Like Ryan Jeffers, Julian the second baseman, like those are your power guys right now. I question if some of the stuff that they were doing analytically at them has caught up with them and maybe they haven't evolved as baseball has evolved. And then to your point about the home runs, are we going to see things change in baseball where having guys who hit for high contact and high average comes back because power is coming down and you can't rely on that outcome.

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So it's early, right? It's been cold. I get that there have been some days where the wind has been blowing in at a very, very strong clip. So there is some sample size noise in what I'm about to talk about. With that being said, this season's home run to fly ball percentage is 10.5%. Last season's was 12.7%. And 2022 was 11.4. And remember, the ball was dead for the first six, seven weeks of the season before they incorporated a new ball. That was when they had three different balls. They had the Goldilocks ball late in the year, you know, when Aaron Judge was chasing the AL ORG record, all those kinds of things.So the ball was different throughout 2022 and very, very dead early in the year. Is it possible that the baseball has fucked up this season and may change? It is. However, 10.5% would be the lowest home run to flyball percentage we've had since 2014. It was 10.5% in 2013, but percentage points higher than what we've got so far this season. Now, again, I think the weather could be a factor early on in the year.But I think the bigger factor is you have a lot of teams now that are really focused on contact management with their pitchers. Because you can't go out there and allow a bunch of hard pull side contact with the shift ban because you're just going to get shredded through that side of the infield. So we're seeing a lot of teams, you know, guys are throwing more splitters now. Why? Because he can't really get on top of a splitter and drive the baseball anywhere. We're seeing teams like the Rays ORG, who are obviously trailblazers on an annual basis.All of their guys are working up in the zone with fastballs. Why? Because you're going to hit the bottom of the ball. You're going to sky it. You're not going to make quality contact. You're not able to get on top of it and drive that baseball out. So what we've seenhere across Major League Baseball is we've seen teams try to optimize their pitch arsenals to avoid hard contact and avoid power. What that's going to do is really drive down the ability to hit the baseball out of the ballpark. Because when you look at this season, the hard hit percentage, 38.6 percent, is the second highest in the stat cast era. 2023 last season was the highest, 39.2%.So guys are still hitting the ball hard. The problem is they're not hitting the ball as hard from a distance standpoint because of how pitchers are attacking them. So I think that we will see scoring down throughout the summer relative to the previous summers that we've had here. And I think teams that have adopted this whole launch angle craze are going to struggle a little bit. Now the Braves ORG are a team that were early adopters.They're just really, really loaded. And I don't think any adjustment matters for them at all.

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But I think that teams that did try to build themselves around power and not much else, a la the twins, are really going to hurt from all these new pitching trends in Major League Baseball ORG. Oh, Adam, I cannot wait for the same people who complained about the three true outcome approach a couple years ago and saying, all these guys do is swing for the fences. I cannot wait for those same people to complain.Why is scoring down in baseball? I want to see runs happen. It's funny how baseball fans, let's be real. They will always find something to complain about. So now if teams are just going to put the ball in play, but they're not going to hit homers and there's not as many extra base hits, potentially, they're going to complain about that.There's always something for these baseball fans to complain about. I'm telling you right now, I'm calling my shot. All these people are just going to bitch and complain. I can't believe all these games are 3-1, 2-0. I came to see runs get scored. Yeah, I mean, it's going to happen.

Speaker 1900.32s - 983.54s

And look, I mean, there will still be offense just because of, you know, the emphasis on kind of putting the ball in play as much as possible and the fact that there is no shift. But also the other thing that we're dealing with here so far. And again, it is early. There is maybe a little bit of sample size noise in this. But the infield fly ball percentage or pop up rate is the highest this season that it's been in quite some time. So that, again, speaks to what I'm talking about of the way that pitchers are attacking hitters and the way that they're, you know, kind of moving pitches around the zone, pitching in different quadrants. Because remember, right, the old baseball adage when we were kids, and I realized this is along time ago, but it was, oh, you're going to keep the ball down. You got to keep the ball down. You got to keep the ball down. Well, sure, during the steroid era, that probably made a lot of ago, but it was, oh, you're going to keep the ball down. You're going to keep the ball down. You got to keep the ball down. Well, sure, during the steroid era, that probably made a lot of sense when, you know, average fastball velocity was 89, 90 miles per hour. Now you're getting dudes who are gassing guys at 95 plus up in the zone.And like, you're getting a lot of foul balls. You know, you're getting a lot of short starts because of foul balls nowadays. But also, you're getting a lot of guys hitting the bottom of the baseball on a high velocity pitch and they're just popping it up, you know, or they're hitting some lazy ass fly ball to the outfield. So I don't think that this is going away.And so I think we will see a substantial drop in home runs here this season relative to the past few seasons. Wow.

Speaker 0983.94s - 1022.92s

Wow. That is fascinating. Yeah. You're right, though. A lot of these teams that they built based on what the trends were at that time, right? Especially the teams who can't afford to go out and get the best players or don't have the best players already in their organization.They're going to go out and they're going to say, well, hold on. Everyone's swinging for the fences. We need power, power, power. So other than the twins, who do you think could be impacted as well? Like, I don't know why the Blue Jays ORG jumped out to me as a potential option here. But is there another team that might suffer if this continues with this trend? Yeah, I mean, I think to some degree,

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you know, a team that hit a lot of home runs last year, Tampa Bay ORG. I mean, you know, offensively, they've kind of been pretty pedestrian. And I realize they have some guys that are injured on, you know, they haven't really had a full compliment of players here throughout the course of the season yet. But Tampa Bay ORG is a team that, you know, they really, it's funny, right? Because on the offensive side, they sort of realized, hey, we can drive the ball for power. Even though Tropicana Field FAC is historically not a good offensive ballpark at all,they realized, oh, we can drive the ball for power. And they also realized at the same time, oh, that's the key to pitching success. Let's keep the other team from driving the ball for power. So I think Tampa Bay ORG is a team that offensively could struggle a little bit here. I think Philadelphia GPE is another one where they do have kind of a balanced offense. But I mean, last year they had six guys hit 20 or more home runs led by Kyle Schorber with 47.And that's a team that, you know, despite all the good hitters that they have, they don't have a lot of high average guys. They have a lot of guys who work deep counts, stuff like that. So that's a team that, I mean, last year hit 220 home runs. This season, they are off to a very slow start on the offensive side of the ledger. So that's a team and I think has kind of been negatively impacted by this as well. I mean, they've hit 26 homers so far.That's good for being in the top tied for fifth. But other than that, they have a 98 WRC plus. So they're a below average offensive team right now where they're still striking out a little bit too much. They don't really have a lot of guys who hit, you know, line drives. They're kind of a station to station ball club too. They're not to put it on the ground and go first to third kind of thing, stuff like that.So I think that's another team that could be impacted negatively a little bit.

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So look, I think that, you know, teams will maybe start to adjust to this.

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But, Dustin, how many adjustments can you make to 95 plus at the letters? Yeah.

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Where, you know, there's just not much you can do. I mean, you know, not only is the velocity higher, but also pitches that are up in the zone like that, the perceived velocity is higher. So that's another thing that teams are kind of figuring out is, hey, look, we get this guy who throws 91 or 92, but if we get him to throw it up in the zone, it plays like 94. So that's something else that teams are, hitters are just going to have to deal with.And I don't know that there's really a cure for that just by the physics of a baseball swing. Yeah, that, that's going to be something to monitor here. So I have a question then. How does your analytics factor in when a fan interferes with a potential walk-off home run at Corse Field FAC? Because I need to know how that plays into things. Because poor Jacob Stallings, a defensive catcher, a backup his whole life, was robbed yesterday by his own fan base.Please tell me you saw what happened at Coorsfield FAC. For those who missed it, a chance for a walkoff homer for Jacob Stallings. He's only had 23 home runs, I believe, in his nine-year MLB ORG career, puts one into left field, and then all of a sudden a fan reaches over the fence to rob him of that home run and they rule it and out for the home team, which is ironic because now it's like if you're a visiting, if you're a fan of the visiting team, why wouldn't you try and sabotage thatevery single chance you get? I know it's hard to do, but as the resident home run catching expert of the show, Adam PERSON, who's the only one between the two of us who has done that, what are your initial reactions to the fan interference ruining the walkoff homer?

Speaker 11232.5s - 1290.98s

Well, my first reaction is to think about football for a second and pass interference calls where it seems like the pass is never deemed uncatchable, right? Like they just always uphold pass interference, even though the ball was thrown, you know, five yards out of bounds. This ball was not going to be caught by anybody other than the fan. This was a bad call, honestly.That ball was clearly gone. And I don't even know if the guy really reached over that much. Maybe he did. But, I mean, you know, it's kind of the, you know, it's, it's kind of the old line in, in Major League. You know, oh, that's not Shaquille O'Neal PERSON out there and left. That baby's out of here. Like, that's what it was. I mean, that ball was gone. So to me, I think it was less about the fan interference call and more of an example of major league baseball continues to have an umpiring problem problem and it's not just with balls and strikes it's with other things too oh so I thought by

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the letter of the law if a fan interferes it's automatically you know taken off the board like obviously like everyone remembers Tony Tarasco and Jeffrey mayor Orioles andoles and Yankees, I think it was 96. I mean, the outfielder's four feet away from this. I know, but he still reaches, he technically still reaches over. Technically speaking, look, I think, I'm just doing it based off the rules, Adam PERSON,but I think that should be part of home field advantage. I think part of home field advantage is that the fans can reach over and steal a home run. I think that would be perfectly fair to me. I mean, just do it like the Savannah GPE bananas.

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If the fan catches it, batters out. I mean, that's pretty legit.

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Have you ever been to one of those games?

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I know they came to Vegas GPE. Oh, really?

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I went when it came to Vegas GPE.

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It's, I mean, it's fun. Like, obviously, it's family friendly. And my wife and I don't have any kids and we went with, um, Femi and his now wife, Liz PERSON, but, uh, it is definitely family friendly, but, you know, you have a few beers and it's, it's just entertaining. It moves really quick. Uh, you know, they have a timer on everything. It's everything that they did was sobrilliant. I mean, this is something you should teach a college class about. The way that they kind of put this whole thing together, the way that the guy who founded it, his name escapes me right now, the way that he just basically like put all of his money and life savings into just this Hail Mary EVENT attempt, like everything they do is brilliant.It is so much fun. I really thoroughly enjoyed it. Although the weird thing was, again, I saw them in Vegas GPE. We had a rain delay during the game. There was a rain delay in Vegas GPE? There was a rain delay in Vegas GPE.

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What month was this?

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I think it was July, so it had to be maybe early monsoon season. People don't know. People don't know.

Speaker 01405.58s - 1467.3s

People don't know the volatility of living in the desert. I mean, because I know I didn't know when I moved here, did you? Like the one thing is the heat. The heat everyone acknowledges. Obviously, you know you're moving to the desert. In July, it could get up to like 117 degrees.It's, it's, and you think you know what 117 degrees is until you get into your car. And the air conditioning literally cannot get cold enough to blow cold air on you. But secondly, when it rains here, it really rains and we're not built for rain. So it floods. And then third, this is kind of the big one for me that no one tells you about Adam PERSON. In the summer at night, it will get extremely windy. And I know what you'rethinking, listening. You're like, oh, well, that breeze must cool things off. Oh, Contrere Montre Montere Montere, there is zero coldness to the breeze. It is essentially like someone taking the piercing level of a, of a hair blow dryer and blowing hot air onto your skin at night it is the worst thing

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I've ever experienced weather wise it yeah the the hot wind is rough I mean it is really really rough I will say I mean I'm a weather nerd I actually wanted to be a meteorologist growing up

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a broadcast meteorologist that's such a thing that someone who loves numbers would say I know right

Speaker 11484.58s - 1509.4s

I don't think I have the legs for it, though. Um, but look, like, I got so excited my first monsoon season out here to actually see thunderstorms because like, I was like, yeah, this doesn't exist. Oh, it does. I don't know. I think I this is, this is bad because, you know, there are, it's really tough out here in Vegas. For a lot of people that don't know, there are a lot of homeless people that live, like, in the tunnels and in the drainage system here in Las Vegas.

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So, yeah, they live underground, which again, I mean, it's hot as hell here.

Speaker 11513.18s - 1551.9s

So, you know, if you're homeless, it makes sense. I mean, you know, there was a, I don't know who did it. I don't know if it was like a Guardian ORG YouTube video or something like that where they, you know, kind of went around and sort of interviewed some of the people that, you know, lived on there. And they have like full on apartments with the things that they've kind of collected and, you know, all of that down there. But when it rains or when a big rain system is coming, like the cops have to go around andknock on the tunnels and try to get those people to get out of there because things flood so quickly. I mean, the link parking garage is the one that always goes viral on social media where I call it the Link River LOC because it just, that thing flows, man, when it rains.

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It's crazy. It's crazy. All right. Well, I want to get to some Sabirk PERSON. Well, we did the Sabirk PERSON metrics already. It was the baseball.

Speaker 11561.58s - 1565.16s

We didn't talk about your Mets ORG. We got to give your Mets ORG a little airtime here. Let's talk about the Mets ORG. So two or three give your Mets a little airtight here. Let's talk about the Mets.

Speaker 01565.58s - 1712.04s

So two or three from the Dodgers ORG and the Dodgers aren't right. I think that's one thing you can say from watching them. But there's a vibe with the Mets right now, Adam PERSON. They have this never say die attitude. Like they're never out of it. They're always fighting.They're always scrapping. And there's a few things that jump out to me. One, we talked about it on the podcast on Thursday. Francisco Lindor PERSON, he started hitting from the left side. He's been on an absolute tear. The power's there.The contact is there, which is more importantly. And if he's going to hit, it just changes the lineup. Another guy that changes the lineup when he's healthy. Starling Marte PERSON. I think we're finding out last year wasn't the beginning of the end for Marte PERSON. It was just that guy was so banged up with so many injuries. He wasn't going to play to his potential. He's hitting for power. He's stealingbases. I mean, he has the potential to be a 30-30 guy, if not more this year. Like legitimately looks awesome right now for the Mets ORG. He's another guy who adds some depth and dimension to the lineup. Now, they did lose Francisco Alvarez PERSON with a torn thumb, which absolutely sucks because to me, he has just obscene power for a catcher. And he's a clutch guy already in his young career, and I really love watching him. However, J.D. Martinez may be making his Mets debut at the end of this week.So there's help on the way. And Omar Narvaez PERSON has actually come up with a few big hits to start the year. So I'm not concerned that they're not going to get anything from that catcher position when it comes to offensive production. The bullpen, though. So I think this is where David Stearns and his analytics has been such an upgrade for the Mets ORG. And I think you could probably speak to this better than I. But when I look at the pitching staff he's assembled, I think a lot of us said, oh, my God,Luis Severino, Sean Mania, Adrian Houser PERSON. Like these are not studs. However, I think David Stearns PERSON knows how to use them and maximize them. And the Mets ORG are taking, you know, the more progressive approach of let's get five innings, maybe six if we're lucky out of these guys and hand it over to a top tier bullpen.And the bullpen has been absolutely dynamic, mainly Reed Garrett PERSON, who's come out of nowhere to be one of the best relievers in baseball. So Adam, when you look at my Mets ORG, do you see what they're doing? Is there anything that jumps out to you? Do you think some of this is sustainable from a numbers perspective?Well, first of all,

Speaker 11712.06s - 1727.78s

I want to give you props when it comes to Francisco Lindor because there's something that I subscribe to called the shit talking theory. Yeah. Where anytime I bad mouth a guy, like, you kind of,it's kind of the reverse speaking into existence thing.

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Yeah.

Speaker 11728.56s - 1755.56s

And it works. It is, it is proven. Again, I talk about being uncomfortable with things that are unquantifiable. I can quantify this.When you talk shit about a player, whether you do it with your friends, in a text, on social media, so everyone can, you know,freezing cold takes you. Like, it's just a thing so kudos to you for sparking francisco lindor i don't know if he listens to the double play podcast or not but you know you you went with the shit talking theory and it absolutely worked out for you so credit to

Speaker 01755.56s - 1760.36s

you for that starling marthe it's a fact by the way it's a that that 100% happens i'm trying to

Speaker 11760.36s - 1768.1s

look up now i believe old takes exposed did get me once, but continue. So Starling Marte, 49.3% hard hit rate.

Speaker 01768.22s - 1770.26s

That'd be 10% higher than anything else he's had.

Speaker 11770.3s - 1892.7s

I don't think that's necessarily sustainable. But I was really concerned last year that we were seeing the aging curve kind of come into play. I mean, he's a guy in his mid-30s. You know, he's played outfield. He's a guy who's stolen a lot of bases throughout his career as well. A lot of, you know, the legs are kind of what goes with these guys.I think about when the Indians signed Michael Boren PERSON and like all of a sudden he became a really useless player because he got into his, you know, 30s and the legs just kind of started to go on him. Fortunately for Marte, it looks like that's not the case last year, maybe just kind of an outlier a little bit of an aberration. So good to see him bounce back because he was a really productive offensive player for,you know, the previous five seasons. So good to see him bounce back there. But I think you hit on something that's a really, really important point. And that is when a new regime comes in, particularly a data-driven one, the easiest thing to fix is the bullpen because you find ways to leverage a guy's arsenal much more effectively. You go to the guy and you say, look, your fastball sucks. Quit throwing it.Like you're going to throw sinkers and sliders and cutters and splitters and whatever else, but you're not throwing a fastball. And also, I mean, a lot of guys who are relievers at the big league level, I mean, they came up as starters, right? So they at least had two good pitches because you can't come up as a starter without at least two good pitches. The third pitch is the separator. If you have that, you're probably a starter for five, six, ten, twelve years in this league. If you don't have a third pitch, especially if you have a fourth and fifth pitch, you hang around forever. But if you don't have a third pitch,you become a reliever. What did Baltimore do last year and two years ago? They built the bullpen. Felix Bautista PERSON was elite. They found Yenny or Kanoe PERSON. They found some other guys who were kind of starter castoffs or just random dudes. They fixed the bullpen.What are the Mets ORG doing? They're fixing the bullpen. They went out and got former Oriole Jorge Lopez PERSON. They got Jake Deekman PERSON, a guy who's always had a really good slider from the left side. They went out and got former Oriole Jorge Lopez. They got Jake Deekman, a guy who's always had a really good slider from the left side. They got some veteran guys. I mean, their bullpen, almost everybody's over 30, which is kind of crazy, you know,

Speaker 01892.72s - 1898.98s

in present day. But Stearns did such a good job building up the Brewers ORG bullpen into a strength.

Speaker 11899.04s - 1961.02s

I mean, you had Josh Hater. You had Devin Williams, who was the best set up guy in baseball for a long time. God, who was their seventh inning guy that I can't think of now? But like, it was, they only needed five innings from a starter because the game was over after that. If you can build that kind of thing, you can be good. And I've always heard people say, if you want to be a bad team, have a bad bullpen. If you want to be a good team or at least a contending team, you damn well better have a good bullpen.And right now the Mets have one. and they found something in Garrett PERSON, ironically enough, who the Orioles gave up on. But he's throwing a slider 55% of the time because they went, hey, your fastball's not real good. Here's what we're going to do instead. And then your fastball is your secondary pitch to sneak up on guys at 95, 96. Like, the smart teams do this. The smart teams build a bullpen with all kinds of pieces and parts. And it helps that Edwin Diaz PERSON is healthy.No question about that. But this is what the smart teams do. And this is what you have to do in baseball in 2024, because you're getting five and flies out of the starters all the time.

Speaker 01961.38s - 2015.96s

Yeah, look, Adavino PERSON came back. That was massive for the bullpen. I've always liked Drew Smith. I always thought Drew Smith could be something. And he had a good year, two years ago. I don't think last year went very well, but so far he's been dynamite for them. And you're right, though. You shorten the game when you have an elite bullpen. And I have to tell you, the Lopez PERSON signing was massive. I, that guy still got it.He's still a really good pitcher. He's also closed big games before in his past with the twins, with the Orioles ORG. Like, he knows high leverage and how to handle it. And then, of course,G. F. Diaz PERSON on the back end. So the bullpen's awesome. I'm starting to believe in Stearns PERSON that he did have a vision. He did have a plan. And remember, I was bullish on this team.I thought that they were going to contend for the playoffs. But I was out about four games into the season. I did not like what I was seeing, especially offensively.

Speaker 12016.86s - 2030.96s

Well, you know what else too? I mean, they bring in Carlos Mendoza, who, you know, was on Aaron Boone's staff with the Yankees ORG. Say what you will about the Yankees ORG and all the issues that they've had and all the criticism of Brian Cashman and all of that. On an annual basis, their bullpen's pretty damn good.

Speaker 02031.26s - 2037.86s

Yeah. And so that's a good point. And look, I also think, you know, Jeremy Hefner PERSON was brought in. He was what? Made the

Speaker 12037.86s - 2042.66s

pitching coach at 33, 34, 35 years old, something like that. I think he's had he's been through like three

Speaker 02042.66s - 2048s

managers now. They've kept him along for the ride. He's he's untouchable. They will not fire him.

Speaker 12048s - 2054.16s

And I think I think that this kind of speaks to what we sort of started talking about with the

Speaker 02054.16s - 2058.06s

guardians and about the vibes in the clubhouse, everybody being on the same page.

Speaker 12058.66s - 2189.16s

Like Stephen Vote has put together an elite coaching staff. There's probably two future managers there and Craig Alburnaz and Kai Correa who may even be managers by next season. Like, these guys are all working together in harmony. I think when you bring in a guy like Jeremy Hefner and he's, you know, not that far removed from his playing days and you bring him in and like, as you said, there's been a bunch of turnover and all of that. Like, there's probably a lot more continuity on this coaching staff than there used to be.And I mean, you got John Gibbons PERSON, who's obviously managed a ton. He's the bench coach. Mike Sarbaugh, the third base coach, he was in Cleveland ORG for a long time. So he kind of built things up there as well. Like, this shit matters, man. And I don't think that people think about it as much in baseball as they should.It's a big thing in football with the head coach and the coordinators, you know, teams make a coordinator higher and everybody goes apes shit. Like, people don't talk about that enough in baseball where if you have a coaching staff that can collaborate and actually work together and also be that vessel to go from the front office to the player with the data that needs to be shared. That helps your team so much. And I think it was something that hurt the Guardians when Terry Francona PERSON later in his career, because he was either not feeling well enough or just maybe kind of got burned out and wasn't sharing all that information the way that he should. The Mets ORG seem to have a lot more continuity now.And I think stuff like that matters. Whereas you look at the team like the Marlins ORG, for example, they, I think we kind of talked about this. I think you may have said it that like it's offensive to dumpster fires to call this team a dumpster fire. There is no communication from the front office to the coaching staff to the players.And it shows, man. It's the same thing with the White Sox ORG. There is no collaboration with that team. The Royals ORG, they're not that talented of a team. But I'm sure that they're much better at sharing data. John Sherman was a minority owner of Cleveland ORG for a little while. Like they're probably sharing data at a very high, very effective, very efficient level.This stuff matters. And that's why some of these teams are off to good starts and other teams aren't.

Speaker 02189.6s - 2261.16s

Yeah, look, I didn't think Buck Showalter PERSON at the time deserved to get fired. Now in retrospect, I'm understanding why it happened because he's an old school guy and he may have adopted analytics to a certain degree, you know, at some point along the way. But I think there's something to be said for what you know, at some point along the way. But I think there's something to be said for what you're talking about here in the continuity. It's not that it's not even so much that everyone's on the like has the same message. It's that everyone understands and understands and respects the information that's being shared, right?And it does feel like an old school guy like Buckshaw Walter PERSON doesn't see all the information and totally respect what it's giving. And I get that. I get why. That's not the world he grew up in in baseball. But you bring in Mendoza, who by the way, all of a sudden now they're bunting the Mets ORG. I thought the bunt was dead.Like they're bunting in key situations. They're moving guys over. There are a couple developments that are happening with his tenure so far, and I'm going, oh, okay, I get why David Stearns PERSON likes this guy. Granted, I'm judging off of positive results. Let's see how he handles negative results.But I'm liking the vibes of everyone just being on the same page and respecting the information that's being shared.

Speaker 12262.22s - 2299.9s

I'm kind of curious to draw this back to what I talked about in the open about the home run rate. If the bunt kind of makes a little bit of a comeback this year, because, you know, I mean, look, all the data is out there. And I'm very much against sacrifice bunting before the eighth inning. I think the eighth inning is kind of where the cutoff is. If you need to tie the game or drive in the go ahead run or, you know, the winning the ninth inning something like that there's a time in a place for a bun and to me it's an exceptionally high leverage particularly if you've got a tough matchup you know like if if i'm a left-handedhitter and there's a runner on second i'm never bunting why because i should be able to pull a

Speaker 02299.9s - 2304.4s

ground ball yeah like i should be able to in the course of my played appearance pick out a pitch

Speaker 12304.4s - 2312.84s

that i can pull get that guy, maybe even get the base hit. I realize it's not that simple. I've clearly never played major league baseball, never played high level baseball, have

Speaker 02312.84s - 2324.52s

never stood in the box against 97, 98. But I think it's better to take the chance that guy just pulls one through the hole than to give up and out because, you know, especially if he's facing a righty, he, in theory, has an advantage.

Speaker 12331.9s - 2375.88s

That said, if home runs are going to come down and the scoring environment is going to drop. Yeah. You run into a position where the equity of a bunt actually might go up a little bit here this season. So I'm not advocating for it because anybody out there who believes in Sabermetrics is going to MF me all day long. But I do think that we may, because of how cyclical all the changes are in baseball and how everything's a follow the leader trend, like we may get to a point where the bunt kind of makes a little bit of a comeback. I'm not saying I'm excited about it. I'm just simply saying that from a run expectancy standpoint,if this isn't a doubles, triples, and home run game to the same degree that it has been the last few years, manufacturing runs will have a place once again.

Speaker 02376.32s - 2378.72s

Bring back the bunt, Burke PERSON says.

Speaker 12378.88s - 2380.04s

That's no, nope.

Speaker 02380.1s - 2381.76s

He's a big bunt guy.

Speaker 12382.06s - 2385.16s

This is the problem with the media, taking shit out of context.

Speaker 02385.52s - 2399.72s

I just had a three-minute soliloquy about run expectancy and win expectancy and about league-wide trends. And Dustin Swedelson says, Burke PERSON says bring back the bunt. Adam Burke PERSON, big bunt guy, loves those BBB, big bunt Burke.

Speaker 12400.22s - 2406.44s

Jesus. That could have gone a very different way. Big bunt wins, BBW.

Speaker 02407.24s - 2435.52s

Oh, God. There, there we go. There we go. Look, I like the, but what's funny, Adam PERSON, is you're asking guys to bunt. They don't know how to. You only have so many guys on the roster these days who know how to, uh, hello, pitchers don't hit anymore.So all the pitchers that you would have bunt, they don't bunt anymore and hitters don't bunt anymore because there's no pitcher behind them in the lineup. No, that's, that's very true.

Speaker 12435.62s - 2443.68s

I mean, you know, you're, you're not really asked to bunt. And furthermore, I mean, if you're a guy making it to the big leagues, you've been hitting in the middle of the order at basically every level of

Speaker 02443.68s - 2444.92s

baseball you've ever played.

Speaker 12450.24s - 2462.98s

So like, why would you be bunting? And that is, that's a really good point that you bring up. I mean, that's another reason why I don't like the bunt. Like people think a sacrifice bunt is automatic. It's not. I mean, a lot of times you're going to fall one off. You're going to take a strike because you're not confident. Then you're down 02 and you can't bunt anyway.

Speaker 02463.18s - 2494.6s

And you just pissed away a plate appearance. What you need is you need the old Raphael for call, the slug bunt, the threat of a real bunt people run in and then he slugs it past them. That guy had crazy hand control. I will say, I do like a good drag bunt. Drag bunt, that's a lost start. No, like back in the day, Juan Pierre, back in the day we'd come up, start running,each row to a degree, like run up in the box, drop it down and beat them to first base. If you're a fast guy and you can't bunt, I don't know what you've been doing your whole life. That's free hits sometimes, especially when you're in a slump.

Speaker 12494.98s - 2506.24s

Just use your speed. Yeah, and look, I mean, I think it's also, you know, I mean, you could make the argument that with pitchers always throwing max effort, like you're not always in a fielding position.

Speaker 02506.24s - 2522.2s

No, maybe that's something that teams do try to exploit a little bit more as we go forward here. Who knows? I mean, the game, the game is always changing and always evolving. But if home runs are going to be down and pop-ups are going to be up, because pop-ups are effectively a strikeout, like, teams are going to start figuring out different things to do.

Speaker 12522.2s - 2533.52s

And, I mean, the guardians don't bunt a lot, but they put a ton of balls in play for this, you know, kind of at the expensive power and, you know, contact authority. Like maybe other teams kind of start to, to follow that lead.

Speaker 02533.72s - 2543.08s

I don't know. You heard it here first, folks. Adam Burke PERSON says the bunt is coming back. Embrace it, accept it, make it a part of your life. To a degree. To a degree.

Speaker 12543.44s - 2561.12s

Except. All right. Burkey PERSON, it's a great time to end it. I think we covered a lot of ground today. Next episode, we're going to get into the White Sox ORG because I think we need some time to really dig in to the numbers of just how historically bad this team is right now.So we'll touch on that next time for Adam Burke PERSON.

Speaker 02561.32s - 2565.48s

I'm Dustin Sweetelson PERSON. This has been Double Play ORG, a baseball podcast.