The Market Calm Before The Storm?... And Lionsgate’s Nasdaq Debut 5/14/24

Speaker 110s - 36.06s

Hi, I'm Ben Rizzuto, wealth strategist at Janice Henderson ORG investors. Is a brighter future possible? At Janice Henderson ORG, we think it is. For 90 years, we've worked to help clients achieve superior financial outcomes and fulfill our purpose of investing in a brighter future together. We know that this means our thinking and our investments are helping to shape millions of futures. At Janice Henderson ORG, we are committed to helping you invest in a brighter futurefor the next 90 years and beyond. To learn more, go to Janice Henderson.com ORG. At a day when the NASDAX had a new record close, we are coming to you live from the heart of

Speaker 1836.06s - 126.12s

the action in New York City's Times Square. This is fast money. Here's what's on tap tonight. The volatility puzzle, multiple measures of market, unpredictability are at deep lows, even as uncertainty looms over investors. But are things as calm as they might seem on the surface or is trouble brewing below? Plus, the state of streaming. Upfronts are underway, and the battle for viewer eyeballs is heating up.We'll talk to Lionsgate, Vice Chair Michael Burns PERSON about what is next for the industry and the just-completed spin-off of the company's film and TV studio business. And later, Google ORG steps up its game in the AI wars. Meem Madness EVENT goes beyond the Game Stops and AMCs of the world and the CEO of a biotech company disrupting the healthcare space. I'm Melissa Lee PERSON. I'm Melissa Lee PERSON.Come to you live from Studio B at the NASDAQ on the desk tonight. Tim Seymour, Dan Nathan, Guy Adami PERSON, and Katie Stockton, founder in managing partner at Fairlead Strategies ORG. And we start off with a market that may have gotten a little too complacent in the face of rising uncertainty. The NASI closing at a record for the first time in over a month today, and volatility across a variety of asset classes somewhat surprisingly low. The CBO's VIX index trading near its lows of the year.Bank of America's Move Index, a gauge of volatility in treasury futures, is down 8% this year. Even crude oil vol is at depressed levels. All this, despite uncertainty over the consumer and rates, the potential trade war with China GPE, and an actual war in the Mideast LOC. But two big data points could soon cause some ripples in this market, plastic waters. CPI tomorrow and NVIDIA earnings next week.So is this low volatility world? Just the calm before the storm. Guy.

Speaker 5126.28s - 171.74s

I would have said that months ago, but I'll say yes again today. And it's interesting, listen, this is what I think is going on. But people have been conditioned to learn that markets, if they go down, they don't stay down. And there's no point in being long volatility because long volatile trades typically don't work. And oh, by the way, we can actually create a synthetic dividend for ourselves by selling volatile. And I think all those things together is sort of what's going on here. Now, I also think that's sort of a recipe for destruction.That's a trade that will work the majority of the time. When it doesn't work, you sort of blow up. But right now, when people see a PPI that comes in hot, yet the market doesn't react. And when they see the geopolitical stuff going on, the market doesn't react. They get emboldened to continue to do these things, and they'll be right until they're not. And that's not meant to be glib, but that's how these things typically end up.

Speaker 6171.82s - 180s

Yeah, and you also have a market that is broadening out. I just said it there, people. And you know, you can debate that too. You know, Guy, I know you like to do a lot of quantitative work this afternoon.

Speaker 5180.16s - 254.38s

You took a look on the facts out here. How many stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving average? We were talking about it before. It's over like 75 percent right now., how many stocks in the S&P 500 above their 200-day moving average? We were talking about it before. It's over like 75% right now. And you're also seeing the S&P 500 outperform the NASDAQ a little bit. That doesn't say that I'm getting bullish or anything like that.I think a lot of what Guy PERSON just said is really true. But the fact of the matter is the Fed Chair Powell comes out today. And he basically says, hey, listen, it's going to take us a bit longer, get comfortable with rates higher than you expect. And that doesn't even phase market participants, equity market participants. And I guess when you're thinking about it here, though, you know, we have an S&P that's up 10% back at all time highs. All those, you know, readings you said are very near lows. There is an alternative here,people. You know, three-month treasuries are paying 5.4%. So if you think that, you know, we're going to go sideways, there's other places to park your money right now. And I'll just say the last thing, I get it. Earning season, Q1, better than expected, Q2 guidance on a one-off basis. There were some situations here. It looks pretty decent. But at the end of the day, we're likely to get the benefits of a lot of this excitement in-around January of AI with these top five names. They're probably in the stocks. it's probably in the market.And that's what we saw last year when we got into July. It was a pretty rocky period on the way to the lows back in late October of 2030 DATE.

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Are we in for a surprise? Do you think?

Speaker 10256.32s - 322.84s

I think the market is positioned actually for a surprise to the bullish side, or in other words, a more benign inflation print. I think you've had, and I think there's more focus on on cpi than ever not only because we've had three bad prints but because if you look at some of the data we got today the components of the pcee have been very mixed there's been there's been actually enough to say um maybe you could you know read through this that the fed should be okay but dance right i mean powell was out there in amsterdam today and he's saying i'mnot going to hike anytime soon but he also didn't he's saying, I'm not going to hike anytime soon. But he also didn't say, he also said, I'm not going to cut anytime soon. He really reiterated the hire for longer and that restrictive policy needs to remain restrictive. But again, the flow to the market has been, as long as the Fed ORG is not hiking. And I know that it's almost absurd to think that that's, oh, it's great, great risk on if the Fed ORG's not going to hike and nobody even thought they were going to hike. But truly the data for the last few months has been to a point where people might have had to quickly reassess. So I think, look, look, the move in the marketand the collapse in volatility is all post-Fed ORG meeting. We're going to build up to this again. I think it's all about the Fed ORG. And we're in an environment where we know eventually they probably will cut. We just don't know when. And the markets love this.

Speaker 18322.84s - 341.56s

I mean, maybe half the battle is just knowing where the Fed ORG stands. And he addressed the possibility of a hike. He said he really does not see that as being the next move. And by many, many measures, he used too many's. Policy is still restrictive at this point. And so you know the Fed ORG's going to stay up here. And maybe that's enough for the markets at this point. What do you see in terms of the possibility of a surprise and volatility?

Speaker 17342.1s - 387.22s

Well, you know, we see the VIX as a measure of market sentiment. And of course, with it so low or relatively low, it would suggest that there is complacency in the market. It's not always the case, but right now with the meme stocks running up, it has that feel to it. What was interesting is that yesterday, Monday, the VIX gaped up after having declined pretty notably for more than three weeks. And it came into some support on the chart. Now longer term, the VIX tends to move in these cycles, sort of a low-val versus high-val cycle.We've been in a low-val cycle for more than a year, which is above average. And the indicators are starting to shift momentum-wise to suggest that we'll get into a higher-vol type of environment, both near-term and also potentially over the coming months.

Speaker 18387.42s - 391.74s

Right. But in terms of higher-volvely, you're mentioning some of the structural reasons why volatility

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will not go back to the highs that we've seen in the past. Do you think that holds? I believe it. Listen, that's my belief.

Speaker 18399.46s - 444.18s

I'm not suggesting I'm right. But if you think about sort of the arc of this entire thing, there used to be a time where people bought volatility, bought options to protect portfolios. When they realized sort of zero interest rates did not allow the market go down, they said, you know, why do we need to do this anymore? We're not going to. And then I think some genius came out and said, wait a second. Not only don't we need to do it, we can actually sell this volatility again, create this dividend for ourselves.And I think that's been the game for a while. I think that's why Vol has been muted the way it has been. However, you do get instances where that genie gets out of the bottle. We saw glimpses of it a month or so ago. It was short-lived. But I do think we're entering a period to Katie's point where people better be prepared for it on the upside. And then we've been talking throughout earnings season about the giant jumps or declines

Speaker 5444.18s - 455.22s

and stocks on the back of earnings. So individual stock volatility on an event basis, we've been talking throughout earnings season about the giant jumps or declines and stocks on the back of earnings. So individual stock volatility on an event basis, we've seen that. I mean, time between meta and Starbucks ORG. I mean, so many big cap names are seeing giant moves upward down.

Speaker 6455.32s - 457.24s

They seem idiosyncratic.

Speaker 18457.4s - 519.58s

I think there's kind of two themes, though, that we could kind of think about. One would be who's benefiting from generative AI and all the spend. Okay. And the other one is the consumer starting to weaken. And I'll just say this. We're going to get a lot more data about the consumer as we get deeper into retail earnings.I think what Walmart has to say on Thursday is going to be really important. If it corroborates some of the things that we heard from some of these other consumer companies, then you should start to get worried about the U.S. consumer at a time where Powell PERSON just told us, rates are going to stay higher for longer. A lot of U.S. GPE consumers are spending on credit. We're seeing a lot of credit reset at much higher rates. So these are all thingsI think we can focus on. But the flip side of that is if we do have a benign CPI number, if we do have yields go lower, we have crude going lower, we have the dollar going lower. These are all supportive, I guess, of equities and equity valuations and a consumer maybe giving them a little bit of, you know, a backdrop or something like that or backstop. So to me, I guess it's a really difficult time right now. The last thing I'll just say is I just can't foresee a situation where we get a massive gap on aweak CPI to new highs where we are essentially right now.

Speaker 10519.84s - 523.58s

But to a staff, well, because I mean, I really, to me, I think that's what happens tomorrow.

Speaker 6523.7s - 527.62s

You do. You think we get like a 1, 2% move on a weaker than expected. I mean, listen,

Speaker 10527.62s - 530.8s

I think you could see a huge relief here. But you think we've had three bad ones in a row.

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I mean, kind of probabilities here. I mean, people priced in a lot of people have CPI shock. And if you got something that look benign. And again, we're, as a niche or kind of.

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We're near those, we're near those peak. We have semis that should be under some pressure here that

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are within 3% of all time highs. And you've got the NASDAQ, which again, an all-time high, even though it is underperforming

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the S&P. But I feel like this market tomorrow wants to go higher on a better CPS ORG. So you think that's a bit of the pain trade, too, right? And so if you look at what else is going on with meme stocks and everything, I mean, like, I get it. Like, you don't want to really step in front of that. But like, for instance, if the number is a little hotter and it's the fourth one in a row, then I think the narrative starts to shift a little bit. And then really quickly, we get back to earnings with Nvidia next week. And what does that mean for the entiremega-cap tech complex? Because if you lose that, which we lost last summer, then you lose the

Speaker 17576.5s - 607.94s

market. Well, I would say, you know, we're prone here to a false breakout in the S&P 500, very close to the highs, minor resistance, around 5, 260 CARDINAL. What I could see is a gap up and a positive initial reaction from the market, but something that's not sustained. And for us, we always wanna make surethese breakouts hold near term, and I don't think it'll hold. So we feel like we have one more down leg to this so-called corrective phase that began in April, and the VIX and its posture would corroborate that.

Speaker 18608.28s - 610.62s

And the downward leg would bring us to what level approximately?

Speaker 17610.9s - 633.9s

Well, I wish I knew. But the initial support is around 50-55 CARDINAL. I think that would be prone to a breakdown, just given the status of our indicators, a little bit too overbought for that to hold. So, you know, the secondary support, 4810 to 4820 CARDINAL, that includes that former resistance level. That seems a bit aggressive to me based on where the indicators stand, so perhaps somewhere in between. I think for the long only crew, though, you know,

Speaker 10633.98s - 665.9s

you talk about those levels. You may absolutely be right. And I think there's been a number of stocks that may be proven that, especially in the mega cap, the M7s PRODUCT. But, you know, down to, say, 50-50 on the S&P ORG for a lot of investors is like, eh, whatever. You know, that's not something that scares people from getting out of the market. And if you think about not just passive flows, but people that really are investing along secular trends, they understand there's going to be volatility. Look, that's a lot of my clients.They just, you know, they're like, I just, I don't want to not be in the market. And if you told me that, you know, the corrective phase is down to 50-50, I'm probably not going to be too cute around the edges, I think.

Speaker 17666.08s - 670.1s

Yeah, it's managing risk just short term and waiting for better entries.

Speaker 18670.82s - 681.54s

Well, as a pullback in volatility pushing traders into risk your assets like meme stocks, Mike Cozy options read, Mike, and some of the volume has just been staggering in these names in the past couple of days.

Speaker 3682.34s - 733.6s

Yeah, they're back, it would seem. I mean, the stocks themselves are not back to the prior highs in some cases that they had seen, but the options volumes have certainly recovered. We have a couple examples here. Beyond Meat traded 8.3 times its average daily call volume, and the buyers were most active in the May 10 strike calls, which expire at the end ofthis week. 25,000 of those traded for about 81 cents MONEY on average. Virgin Galactic traded 7.3 times the average call volume. The May 1.5 DATE calls were the busiest ones there. About 18,000 of those traded for about 16 cents. And the Lucid ORG group traded 6.2 times its average call volume. May 3.5 calls, most active, 36,000 or so traded for about 16 cents. In every one of these cases. The traders are betting on moves of30 to 35 percent and risking anywhere from 6 to 12 percent of the current stock price to make those bullish bets. All of these have very high short interest and I think that's obviously what they're

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after. Yeah, that's a common thread there. What kind of action have you seen in GameStop and AMC ORG?

Speaker 3741.16s - 780.6s

Very much the same thing, actually. I mean, most of these really beaten down stocks, it basically is that whole theme. People are screening, I think, for high short interest. I think those two, actually, we've seen really big volumes both today and yesterday, and that's not surprising. You know, the Roaring Kitty return, I think probably really got the GameStop ORG thing in particular really fired off.But it's all of these. We also saw activity in things like plug, charge point. You know, a lot of these names that are actually single digits, you know, and probably on the cusp, you might say. But they're not on the cusp as far as call buyers are concerned who are trying to play for a squeeze.

Speaker 18781.46s - 787.3s

Is this result guy of this low volatility world? People getting pushed out on the

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risk spectrum. I mean, it's clearly devoid of fundamentals. We've said that it doesn't matter, though. I mean,

Speaker 18791.66s - 828.74s

we've made the point. And listen, over the last two days, AMC ORG, for example, is traded over a billion shares of volume. This is a stock that typically trades, I think, 18 to 20 million shares a day. A billion shares in two days is a lot. So, again, any shorts have been in this name of an ample time to get in, get out. I mean, part of it's shortcoming without question. I mean, just part of it is a chase as well. So this can last, I mean, Tim PERSON talks about it all the time.Karen said it last night. Cilly ORG can be silly a multiple of different times, and we're seeing it now. My concern is that people will get left holding the bag at some point. And we actually said last night, one of these companies should do a secondary. AMC actually did today. It didn't matter, obviously.

Speaker 0829.24s - 838.06s

But, I mean, that's if I were running these companies, especially at GameStop ORG, not that they needed or anything, but this is an amazing opportunity, especially at GME ORG, I think, approaching all-time

Speaker 6838.06s - 887.96s

highs to do something in that realm. Well, yeah, but again, you know, we talk about this. We don't like to use this term in a way that sounds derogatory, but this is playing at the casino where the odds are just stacked massively against you. We talked about yesterday where GameStop ORG went out. It was trading at $30. We were looking at the at the money straddle, the call premium and the put premium in the same strike where the stock's trading. It was like, you know, like 65% of the price of the stock going out a few weeks.If you look right now, just playing for May 17th in GME, it closed at about $49 MONEY. The 49 call, if you wanted to define your risk and make a bullish bet on this between now and Friday's close, it'll cost you $12, a quarter of the value of the stock price. So, you know, you better be fast. You better kind of know what you're doing. You've got to understand that this stuff can be binary, and it could be really hurtfulto a portfolio. So, again, if you are good at trading this sort of stuff,

Speaker 10888.06s - 928.58s

like, how about it? But it's not my game. Well, there are definitely plenty of the traders that we're talking about. It's not, it's not derogatory at all. They're traders. And so, yeah, I had a partner once who was one of the best traders I've ever worked with. And he said, no, don't tell me what to buy. Tell me where to buy it. And that ultimately is what you have. You have volatility on steroids here. Why it's suddenly been interjected, whether it's Mr. Kitty or not. I mean, it's extraordinary. But Katie's right. This is a sign of risk aggression. And it's something that we've seen at periods in this market.And look at credit spreads. I mean, people are pricing things like nobody's going out of business. Mike, thank you. Always nice to see you. Mike Co.

Speaker 18928.96s - 951.78s

Coming up, the AI race is heating up as Google announces its most powerful Gemini PRODUCT model yet, how it compares the latest chat GP2 products announced just yesterday, and how it positions alphabet in the neck and neck battle. Plus, running ahead of the competition, sneaker maker on holding, jumping after results, and Nike ORG gets left in the dust. Can the legacy name want to come back, or is there a new goat, G-O-A-T in the shoe game?

Speaker 2951.94s - 952.52s

Don't go anywhere.

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Fastening's back in two.

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This is Fast Money with Melissa Lee, right here on CNBC ORG. I won't let my active psoriotic arthritis joint symptoms define me.

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Emerge as you.

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Speaker 21027.48s - 1036.52s

Welcome back to Fast Money. Google's I.O. 2024 conference kicked off a few hours ago with Alphabet

Speaker 181036.52s - 1049.04s

CEO Sundar Pichai, unveiling a slate of new products to compete with OpenAI and Microsoft. Deirdre POSA PERSON sat down exclusively with Pichai just after his TIME keynote, and she's here now with all the highlights. Hey, Dee PERSON. Hey, Melissa PERSON.

Speaker 151049.2s - 1100.22s

So this is really the biggest change to search that we have seen in decades. An AI overview will now be the default. It'll roll out to all American users of Google ORG this week and then to Google's billion-plus CARDINAL users over the next, by the end of the year, rather.The technology now will decide whether you get those 10 blue links or whether you get more of a chatbot answer. I sat down, as you said exclusively with CEO Sunder Pichai PERSON right after the keynote, and I asked him how this is going to change the business models. He said that both users and advertisers are going to weather this upheaval, much like theyweathered the shift from desktop to mobile, and he thinks that it will be smooth. Also this week between OpenAI's demo and Googles today, we got our first glimpse of AI agents. Here's what Sunder Pachai said about Google ORG's. I think you started seeing examples today

Speaker 01100.22s - 1138.32s

across our keynote of what we think of as agentic capabilities. Project Astra itself is one, to be able to process the real world in front of you and constantly process it and answer it intelligently. We are building, you know, you can go to Gemini PRODUCT and ask it to plan a trip. In search, we announced multi-step reasoning. You can write a very, very complex queries.Behind the scenes, we are breaking it into multiple parts and composing that answer for you. So these are all agentic directions. Very early days, we're going to be able to do a lot more. I think that's what makes this moment one of the most exciting I've seen in my life.

Speaker 151140.48s - 1165.1s

One of the criticisms of Google ORG, particularly over the last 18 months, is that it doesn't move fast enough to release these products. So even though the demo, they calling it Project Astra PRODUCT, that AI agent, even though it was really amazing and captured a lot of imaginations, I asked him, what are we actually going to see it? And he told me that he expects by this time next year, I.O. 2025,that it's going to be ready for the mainstream, and they'll have rolled it out to all of their

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billion plus users. Melissa, back to you. So Dee, having seen GPT40 PRODUCT and now agent, how do they stack up?

Speaker 151172.68s - 1223.82s

They sound sort of similar in what they try to, what they're going to try to achieve. Yeah, I think the major difference, which they both share is that this is no longer a chatbot that you type queries to. This is an agent that you interact with, that can reason, that has emotion, that remembers where you left your glasses because it has scanned the entire room that you are in. So I think they're pretty similar. And that's the key. I mean, we talk a lot in San Francisco about the commoditization of large language models. Now we're going to start to see the AIagents rollout. Do you need to be good enough for the consumer, good enough for the enterprise, good enough for developers? That's where the next race is going to take place in the application layer. Who gets it out? How capable it is? How it works with you? That's going to be really key for the next year, as Sundar Pichai calls it. You asked the key question, though, in terms of how it changes

Speaker 181223.82s - 1242.8s

the business model. Did you feel like you got a satisfactory answer? You know, comparing it to the transition from desktop to mobile is fine. But when you're talking about an agent and you're dealing with this chat bot and they're talking to you, where is advertisers? You know, that fundamentally is going to change Google ORG's model.

Speaker 151242.8s - 1299.72s

It's a great point. Now you're relying on the technology to either show you a merchant's link or give you a generative AI answer. And if it gives you that gen AI answer, it pushes the links that have proved extremely profitable to Google ORG, push it below the fold. So we're advertisers going to be spending the same amount of money.I'm not sure he answered it directly, but he did say that people are using search more than ever, and they're finding these opportunities to provide them links, and that a chatbot isn't what users want in some of these cases. So I think that's still being negotiated, but he said that it's, you know, they're going to be traveling.It's a bit of a path up and down to see where they all level out, but he did not seem so concerned about it. And he also said that the costs for them are not going to go up materially. When you think about what it takes to run these queries, I think a lot of us thought it would be way more expensive.You need to use GPU-level compute power. He says that they've actually figured out the technology to make it a lot more efficient. All right.

Speaker 181299.82s - 1304.24s

Debo, thank you so much, DeJibosa, at the Google Conference EVENT. What's your take?

Speaker 61304.34s - 1305.58s

She really surrounded the trade there.

Speaker 181306s - 1315.28s

Steve Bo. It's called, I mean, let's say a couple things here, because we've all been waiting for, like, a good generative AI, you know, presentation by Google ORG.

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The stock market says they got it. It didn't crash, you know what I mean, or fall dramatically, which it has done a few times over the last year and a half or so, especially in the face of what OpenAI ORG did yesterday

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and what we expect, maybe Open Eye does with Apple ORG.

Speaker 101329.94s - 1332.22s

That's going to be a really determining factor, I think,

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for some of this technology over the next few weeks,

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over the next few years,

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what gets announced for WWDC EVENT.

Speaker 41337.04s - 1338.16s

But this is about distribution.

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And when you think about nine products from Google have over a billion users, if you think about one and a half billion users for Gmail, if you think about Android, this is really important. Three billion users globally, right? Why is iOS and Apple ORG so interesting as a partner for, let's say, Open AI, because of distribution, because of their installed base of 2 billion iOS PRODUCT users? So to me, I think a lot of the stuff that we've been focusing on chatbots and Dee talked about this is that that was so 2000 and, I don't know, early 24. I think what happens next is really abouthow these huge platform companies distribute this tech and monetize it. And MENA ORG has already done that to some degree. It got a little bit punished for the spend. But that's, I think, the argument going forward. I think Google ORG set up to do this. That's a question that I have, though.

Speaker 181385.24s - 1404.88s

How do they charge for this specific service? Do they benefit from advertising, which seems like an unknown business model? Because it doesn't seem like things will change, right, if there is this sort of chatbot sort of model. Or does it enhance their ability to sell other products? I don't know where the answer is at this point.

Speaker 101405.06s - 1424.02s

I don't either, but it leaves us with the same question. Is the pie any bigger that they're pulling from? In other words, their revenue stream is a function of the business they're doing today already in those areas as the dominant player. So it's a fascinating thing. And Dan PERSON pointed out that the market's reaction.I'm shocked at the market's reaction. So the market reaction was no reaction.

Speaker 21424.22s - 1440.16s

So you have to have some reaction. We've been vilifying or maybe not vilifying. The market has been pushing Google around, although Google ORG's been pushing higher, because they really haven't had this, this, you know, earthquake of an announcement. And I thought today was seamless. Quick on the charts, Katie.

Speaker 171440.52s - 1450.86s

A bullish long-term setup. I mean, it has that momentum. I think the long-term objective from its breakout is about 184. So longer term, it looks good. Yeah. I saw you getting

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freaked out guy when Debo talked about the glasses, scanning the room, it's going to scan your room.

Speaker 51455.86s - 1461.26s

An emotional response? Yes. Emotional response. That's the thing I do not want from my technology.

Speaker 171462.1s - 1465.26s

No, no. You're an emotional guy, though. I mean, you're an emotional guy.

Speaker 51465.42s - 1467.48s

No, I am an emotional. That's why I said it.

Speaker 181467.48s - 1467.98s

I am an emotional.

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He needs an emotionless chat bot to offset him, you know, to counterbalance.

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Anyway, coming up, copper cruising higher.

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We'll go off the chart to take a look at where the in-demand commodity could be headed

Speaker 01478.44s - 1480.04s

after its red hot run next.

Speaker 101480.16s - 1484.28s

Plus, a streaming debut, Lionsgate Studios, making its NASAC debut today.

Speaker 01484.28s - 1487.44s

What the freshly minted spininoff means for the streaming wars

Speaker 101487.44s - 1490.04s

is a brand-new streaming bundle gets ready to launch.

Speaker 01490.4s - 1500.52s

4-Fa-20 DATE right after this. I won't let my moderate-to-severe plaques psoriasis symptoms define me.

Speaker 131500.66s - 1501.76s

Emerge as you.

Speaker 141502s - 1523.66s

In two clinical studies, Trimfaya, Gousalcumab, taken by injection, provided 90% clearer skin at 16 weeks in 7 out of 10 adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis. In a study, nearly 7 out of 10 patients with 90% clearer skin at 16 weeks were still clearer at 5 years. At one year and thereafter, patients and healthcare providers knew that Tramphia was being used. This may have increased results.Results may vary.

Speaker 11523.96s - 1540.8s

Serious allergic reactions may occur. Trimfaya may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. Before treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms of infection including fever, sweats, chills, muscle legs, or cough. Tell your doctor if you

Speaker 141540.8s - 1555.88s

had a vaccine or plan to. Emerge as you. Learn more about Tremfaya, including important safety information at Tremfaya.com ORG. Or call 1-8-578-3527. See our ad in Food and Wine ORG magazine. For patients prescribed Tremfaya PRODUCT, cost support may be available.

Speaker 21560.76s - 1567s

Welcome back to Fast Money. Copper, touching record highs today, now of 25% this year.

Speaker 181567.1s - 1571.7s

Can the rally continue? Let's go off the charts with Katie to take a look at the technicals. What are you seeing here?

Speaker 171572.04s - 1605.84s

It's a really impressive up move, obviously, very parabolic and steep in its nature. Now, it's taken copper futures above long-term final resistance around 490 CARDINAL. If it can hold there and confirm the breakout, essentially, it would look a lot like gold did a few months ago, where we had a major trading range resolved to the upside. And when that happens, you can use something calleda measured move projection to essentially project for copper, and it's around six. And so that would be obviously a very impressive follow-through for copper.

Speaker 101606.08s - 1607.44s

Six, sorry, $6 a pound?

Speaker 171607.56s - 1608.72s

$6, right. Wow.

Speaker 101608.9s - 1611.88s

Big move. Yeah. So we're right around five right now.

Speaker 171611.88s - 1616.64s

And the same type of objective we could get for gold as well.

Speaker 101616.76s - 1679.58s

So this we see as part of a commodity bull cycle. And it is supported by long-term momentum gauges. And these are newer buy signals than we have in the equity market. So it's pretty fascinating to me. I think there's a real story here in the commodity complex. One way to express a view in copper is through the copper miners.There's not a lot of options for investors who trade things like ETFs. But this COPX, the copper miners' ETF, does have almost exactly the same setup as copper futures for those that don't invest that way. So it's a good way to take advantage of it. There is momentum. It does look a little overstretched, perhaps, in the very near term. But I think it's part of a bigger story.We have rotation now, even into the lagging segments of the commodity complex. Take a look at natural gas. Take a look at corn, wheat, soybeans. We've seen that manifests itself in the charts. We recommended on charts pro this week, the agribusiness ETF or moo M-O-O.And you'll see a basing phase developing there as well to take advantage of the eggs. It sounded like you made like a moose app.

Speaker 171679.58s - 1680.52s

She said moo.

Speaker 181680.76s - 1682.22s

I would have said moo.

Speaker 171682.22s - 1683.26s

I would have said moo.

Speaker 181683.38s - 1689.7s

No, you're like, I'm too easy. I'm more like that. But we're seeing this in terms of BHP's bid for Anglo ORG.

Speaker 51689.86s - 1725.62s

It's all about the copper asset primarily. Exactly. We're not interested. Yeah, we don't need you. And they're right to say that. Katie's spot on.Tim PERSON's been talking about this. And it's not just a demand side. This is supply problem in copper as well. Demand is there. I mean, you talk about industrial metals. The copper is Dr. Copper.So it's interesting. I have no idea what CPI is going to be more clearly. I'll say this, though, if you look at the commodity market, and it's across the swath of them, precious metals, industrial metals, grains, energy, it's there in spades. So I think you stay with the copper trade.Freeport Mac was in a couple dollars of a prior all, 16-year high, I think.

Speaker 101726.04s - 1774.12s

So, Dr. Copper, as it's called, this shows no sign of stagflation, right? And if copper's make this kind of move, there's an economic argument. There is a strategic argument. That's what that journal article was about today. Cocker PERSON's gone, cuckoo, this and that. This reminds me a lot of the period from 2003 to 2007 DATE or eight.Right before the crisis, there was risk aggression, there was this commodities move, there was the sense of national champion strategic assets in the case of copper. You had some of the biggest takeovers. You had Alcan ORG, you had Rio takeover Alcan in Canada. You had Inca and Vali ORG. You had major consolidation in the space, and this is happening again. So I think ultimately look, Freeport, Southern Copper ORG, these are names you can buy here. These are names that have exposure to some of the hottest copper assets in the world. I think you stay there. All right. There's a lot more fast-minded to come.

Speaker 181774.22s - 1781.56s

Here's this coming up next. On the run, one sneaker stock surging as the Nike ORG swoosh loses steam.

Speaker 71781.56s - 1818.2s

How this name is leaving its competition in the dust. Plus Studio Standout, Lionsgate ORG completing its spinoff of its film and TV business, and the streaming wars continue to battle on. So grab your popcorn. The double feature details are next. You're watching Fast Money, live from the NASDAQ market side in Times Square.We're back right after this. Welcome back to fast money stocks, climbing ahead of tomorrow's big CPI report.

Speaker 181818.3s - 1899.76s

The Dow jumping 126 points. The SNB up about half a percent. And the NASDAQ closing at a record high. It's first more than a month. Shares of Baba dropping 6 percent after the Chinese e-commerce company reported disappointing results this morning. The company reporting profit fell 86 percent year-on-year in its most recent quarter.That stock now up just 3 percent this year. Home Depot also reporting this morning the company missing revenue expectations as customers delay major home projects due to higher interest rates, but the retailer still reaffirming its full-year guidance. missing revenue expectations as customers delay major home projects due to higher interest rates, but the retailer still reaffirming its full year guidance. And Shoemaker on holdings jumping more than 18% after reporting strong earnings, notching its best stay in more than a year. The company beating on the top and the bottom line and posting a 21% year-over-year surge in net sales.This is competitor Nike continues to struggle, down nearly 15% so far this year. Well, CNBC parent company Comcast announcing a brand new streaming bundle early this morning that will include Peacock, Netflix, and Apple TV Plus that will launch this month at a vastly reduced price, according to CEO Brian Roberts PERSON. The news coming as Lion ORGsgate Studios opens its first day of trading on the NASAC under the ticker, L-I-O-N, Lion, after completing its spinoff from Lionsgate Entertainment ORG. The SPAC ORG spinoff creates one of the largest pure play content companies in the world. It's film division grossing over $1 billion at the global box office in 2023.Joining us now is Lionsgate Vice Chair Michael Burns PERSON. Michael, welcome back to FAS ORG. Always great to see.

Speaker 21899.76s - 1904.14s

All right. Happy to be back. Happy to be back. I feel like I'm coming home.

Speaker 91904.94s - 1905s

So, reminder viewers, basically, this isolates the assets. It takes stars away. Happy to be back. I feel like I'm coming home.

Speaker 181905s - 1912s

So reminder viewers, basically this isolates the assets. It takes stars away so you can actually get a pure play valuation.

Speaker 91912s - 1941.54s

We took two significant steps in the last week or so. We split the bonds. So on full separation, we'll have about called half of our bonds that will end up at the studio and half will remain at stars. We just closed 13 percent, a sale of 13 percent of the studio on this deal. And then our plan is before the end of the calendar year to spend the rest of the stock so that 100 percent of the studio will trade. Okay.

Speaker 181941.54s - 1965.82s

What is the environment like now in terms of the demand for content? I mean, the demand for content is always there. It's just how much companies, platforms are able and willing to spend at this point. I mean, we've seen so many companies out there, they're having difficulty reaching profitability. They're now bundling, sort of going back to the days of cable where you can get a bunch of channels in one package. What is that environment now?

Speaker 91966.6s - 2021.48s

Well, we like the fact that people are spending a lot of money on content. We're separating the businesses because we think we're going to get two different multiples, one for stars and one for the studio. But remember, we're the benevolent arms dealers. So we will license our product to anyone for the right price and if it's the right home for it. So we like the fact that budgets are increasing on content spend.We like the fact that I call the suits effect that library product did so well for Netflix ORG, for that matter. And we're seeing a very competitive marketplace. Our television people, led by Kevin Beggs and Sandra Stern PERSON, they're going to have a very competitive process for a television series are out right now. We're just finishing up filming for this Apple show with Seth Rogan playing a studio executive. It's pretty damn funny. So as long as you have great content and we're pretty good at that, you have a competitive marketplace. So speaking of that competitive marketplace,

Speaker 102021.68s - 2036.36s

what does the paramount feeding frenzy mean for your assets in terms of benchmarking and whatnot? It's a fascinating time. I kind of feel that, you know, having very smart media-focused private equity in the room suddenly means there's people that understand intrinsic value.

Speaker 92036.98s - 2075.36s

Well, I like the comp because I like what we're earning in our content business. We're projecting that we put out there in the documentation and the registration statement in fiscal 25, which we're in right now, we're expecting $430 million of adjusted oibit. We've been around long enough that we certainly, when we put a number out there, we're not going to miss it. I will tell you that the interesting, when I look at the Paramount ORG situation, to me, it's a great example of why I really don't want two different classes of stock. And what we're doing on the studio spin is we have one class of stock in thestudio. And ultimately, when we combine, when we spend the rest of it, the plan is to have one class

Speaker 52075.36s - 2080.3s

of stock. That was going to be my question. See, that leads to my question. In retrospect,

Speaker 92081.02s - 2092.92s

do you think the investment community had a hard time understanding LGFA from B, and this will be more of a pure play that people can wrap their hands around? I think simplicity is a good thing.

Speaker 52093.56s - 2100.36s

Obviously, our shareholders are going to have to determine what the ratio is, the A's and the B is when we fold into one class of stock,

Speaker 92100.42s - 2101.8s

and there'll be a shareholder vote on that.

Speaker 52102.34s - 2104.72s

But I think simplicity is a good thing.

Speaker 92105.08s - 2114.52s

And I think the idea of keeping it really clean, which we're doing with the content business on one side and stars on the other side, I think simplicity in this marketplace is a smart thing

Speaker 182114.52s - 2130.82s

to do. You mentioned the studio business and creating new content, but there's also the library side. And you also had mentioned the suits effect. And so assets that are in the library, maybe mothballed for however long, can find new life on various platforms. So how much is that worth now?

Speaker 92131.82s - 2135.54s

You know, it's funny. I'm sure I'm going to give my associate general counsel a heart attack

Speaker 182135.54s - 2138.34s

when I say this because it'd be... We won't tell anybody.

Speaker 102138.54s - 2143.96s

But I will. Exactly. Let's assume for a second, you're widely disseminated. But our library,

Speaker 42150.82s - 2151.68s

when we report our quarter in our library, which is ending March 31st, it'll be a record quarter and it'll start with a three.

Speaker 92152.68s - 2197.98s

That's a phenomenal number. So the suits effect, the idea that we have all of this library product coming back to us, we don't license them for long term. For example, in the fall, Mad Men will be coming back to us. And I'm sure that'll be an interesting bidding situation for that. So we like the idea that we have 20-some thousand titles. Call it $8,900 million in revenue, very high-margined business. It's worth a lot. And it gives us the ability to borrow money at a very cost-efficient manner, which is a giant barrier to entry. So without the library, one of the smartest things that John PERSON and I did is that we made to have dumb decisions too, but one of the smartest thingsthat we did was we bought every possible library. We've done all these acquisitions. There are creative transactions, like, for example, E1 PRODUCT, which pushed off what we just did a little bit,

Speaker 182198.02s - 2203.24s

but it was worth it. Michael, always good to see you. Come back soon. I'll be here tomorrow morning.

Speaker 92204.78s - 2206.36s

Coming up, a shakeup at Amazon ORG.

Speaker 182206.48s - 2215.2s

The CEO of Amazon Web Services ORG stepping down as the AI race heats up. His replacement and how Jeff Bezos PERSON is getting dragged into this matter. Those details next. Fast money's back in two.

Speaker 22226.42s - 2229.92s

Welcome back to Fast money. Welcome back to Fast money. Amazon today announcing that its AWS ORG CEO is stepping down.

Speaker 182230.06s - 2238.76s

As their Kate Rooney is reporting, there are fears that Amazon ORG is falling behind an AI and a certain company founder isn't at all happy about it. Kate PERSON, what can you tell us about the departure?

Speaker 162239.84s - 2299.64s

Hey, Mel PERSON. Yeah, so a source close to Amazon telling me the new AWS CEO that's announced today, Matt Garman, is what they call a wartime leader and that a leadership change was needed as Amazon ORG is perceived as lagging right now in AI. They called Salipsky, Adam Slipsky PERSON, the peacetime CEO, described him as more high level. And this person said a different leader who's more aggressive, more technical was needed. They pointed to Amazon ORG's lack of a competitive large language model,despite just rolling out bedrock. And according to this source, Amazon ORG is, quote, the most vulnerable big tech name right now in AI. I'm also told this is a key focus for Amazon founder and former CEO Jeff Bezos PERSON, for example, he's not pleased with AI startups using other cloud providers. This person telling me, Bezos PERSON is still very involved in the company's AI efforts. He's known to send emails to other executives about it. And he is not making any sort of operational decisions, but is what I'm told, is hyper aware of the competitive landscape right now. Melissa, we should also say Amazon ORG did decline to comment on this.

Speaker 182300.32s - 2319.56s

Sort of surprising case. Sort of the Google problem in that Amazon ORG has been in AI for so long. When if you think of Alexa and the ability of saying, Alexa, I need paper towels, and then Alexa goes and buys the paper towels and sends them to your home, I mean, that seems like that was the initial, maybe one of the first sort of agents out there. And yet now they're perceived as behind.

Speaker 162320.24s - 2368.78s

Yeah, it's interesting, Mel PERSON. That's true about Alexa PRODUCT. And that's where a lot of their generative AI support and, you know, engineering talent comes from, is that early move into Alexa PRODUCT. And that was also a big Jeff Bezos priority was early on getting Alexa PRODUCT to the point where it would be ubiquitous. But as you said, and it's now seen as this laggard along people in AI in Silicon Valley LOC. And the sense that I'm getting from discussions today is that AWS ORG was seen as being complacent and needing to move faster despite maybe getting ahead in the beginning.This is really dog gears right now. You've seen what happened with Google today and some of the announcements from OpenAI. Amazon ORG really needs to kick it into high gear to make sure that they're not falling behind. You know, we might zoom out in five years and say Amazon ORG was the leader, they figured it out. But I think there's a little bit of fear right now that they are not quite there at this moment.

Speaker 182369.42s - 2373.84s

Kate, thanks. Kate Rooney PERSON. Do you think it's behind? It doesn't have LLM, so it's behind?

Speaker 62373.92s - 2431.98s

I don't think it needs to. And again, that goes back to Apple ORG in a way. I mean, they made this $4 billion investment Anthropic that has this cloud three large language model. It's not too different than when Microsoft has invested in open AI. They have this very collaborative partnership. They also have AWS ORG where a lot of their own foundation model, this is Bedrock that Kate PERSON just mentioned, you know, they're going to be using Cloud 3. Developers are going to be able to use, you know, build on top of this, users of AWS ORG. They go there to have access to these models and that commute. So again, I thinkwe're in the first inning of this, and that's one of the reasons why any skepticism that I've had over the last call it year or so is about assigning so much value to these early winners in the public markets, but also in the private markets. I mean, Anthropics is valued at $40 billion, I think, or something, Open AI at $80 billion.So how do these companies in the private markets get to the public markets and grow into those valuations? How does an Nvidia keep up this sort of revenue growth and everything like that to justify the valuation? To me, at some point next year, I think they probably don't. Yeah, quick on the

Speaker 172431.98s - 2443.46s

charts, Katie. You know, the stock has good resistance around 189, and it's peaked there three times now, actually four. So I'd really like to see it clear that resistance before adding. It does have good

Speaker 182443.46s - 2459.78s

long-term momentum. Coming up, CNBC's 12th annual Disruptor 50 List is out with one gene therapy company that develops manufacturers and commercializes life transforming medicine. The co-founder and CEO will join us next to lay out how his company is transforming the life sciences space.

Speaker 22459.78s - 2471.98s

More fast money in two.

Speaker 182473.12s - 2506.1s

Welcome back to fast money. A number of health care innovators making this year CNBC Disruptor 50 lists with Boston GPE-based Elevate Bio landing the number eight spot overall. The biotech company is a one-stop shop for development and manufacturing of cell and gene therapies with applications for cancer, lupus, stroke, and more. It's also secured key R&D partnerships with pharma heavyweights like Moderna and Novo Nordisk ORG and close a $401 million funding round just last May. Joining us on set for more is Elevate Bio CEO and chairman David PERSON Halal. David,great to have you with us. Congratulations for making number eight.

Speaker 22506.18s - 2523.36s

We were just chatting in the break. And what I thought was interesting was this notion of this being sort of the foundry model of biotech. And you're one of the few companies that do this in an era where for many, many reasons, we want to bring a lot of that stuff back to the United States GPE away from places like China GPE.

Speaker 42523.84s - 2567.98s

Absolutely. You know, when we founded the company seven years ago, we knew we were in the earliest days of the genetic medicine revolution. Today there's only a handful of these medicines that are approved by the FDA ORG and regulators around the world, and yet the FDA has approved like 20,000 drugs in their history. So we know the world is clamoring for more of these therapies because they can cure otherwise intractable diseases.And look, we saw what happened with semiconductors and other things. We want to build the Foundry ORG model here. So we decided to build the first of its kind, foundry exclusively dedicated to genetic medicines and democratize access to it to the entire biopharma industry.

Speaker 182568.38s - 2579.88s

So there are efforts, legal efforts to force companies to bring a lot of that, a lot of R&D that is done in China on a contract basis back to the United States GPE. You're saying that you're the only company that would do it here.

Speaker 42580.52s - 2581.8s

This would be huge for you.

Speaker 182582.12s - 2584.94s

It is an enormous opportunity for us.

Speaker 42585.36s - 2601.8s

Other companies do this in components, but elevate, disrupted the industry by establishing a tech stack and end-to-end-scale manufacturing capabilities, and is offering it exclusively for genetic medicines to every biopharmaceutical company in the world.

Speaker 52602.46s - 2606s

David PERSON, this seems to me like a bipartisan without question,

Speaker 42606.16s - 2610.5s

but Homeland National Security ORG play as well that everybody can sort of embrace.

Speaker 52610.68s - 2612.56s

Do you feel that that's what you're on to here?

Speaker 42612.8s - 2648s

It's a big deal for us. So we established our first next-gen biomanufacturing center in Boston GPE. We broke around last year in Pittsburgh GPE, largely aided in really an economic development effort by a $100 million grant from the Richard King Mellon Foundation ORG, the largest grant that the foundation has made in their 75-year history. And this will be in collaboration with the University of Pittsburgh ORG.So we want to build the facilities here, hire and train the staff here, and develop as many of these next generation genetic medicines in the U.S. GPE as we possibly can.

Speaker 182648.22s - 2657.36s

We mentioned a lot of diseases for which you're doing different components of work, lupus, cancer, etc. What are some of the big drivers in your industry right now for you specifically?

Speaker 42658.06s - 2706.7s

Yeah, so one, of course, is cancer. So we're looking at cells in a very personalized way, being from the patient suffering from cancer. Those cells come to elevate bio, and we then engineer those cells in our clean rooms over a 10 to 14 day period of time. We must have maybe 30 assays and release testing work that happens on every single one of these patients. And then we want to get them back to the patient as quickly as possible. In addition to cancer, autoimmune disorders is a big opportunity.Like lupus, like myasthenia, gravis, multiple sclerosis, and type 1 diabetes, all of those genetic medicines right now are in-house at elevate bio, and we're powering them forward for the industry.

Speaker 182707.12s - 2721.04s

Fascinating. David PERSON, thanks so much for stopping by. Congratulations. Number eight on the CNBC 50 Disruptor list of 2024. Up next, final trades. Final trade, Tim. Southern Copper ORG.

Speaker 172721.78s - 2725.24s

Katie? I have to go with moo, the ETF. Dan PERSON.

Speaker 182725.44s - 2726.04s

Mooh guy.

Speaker 62726.62s - 2727.56s

Google up pullbacks.

Speaker 182727.76s - 2728.44s

Why are you giggling?

Speaker 62729.08s - 2730.54s

I love Michael Burns PERSON.

Speaker 172730.62s - 2732.62s

And this cat from Boston GPE, I dig him.

Speaker 62733.3s - 2735.5s

I think Nike ORG might have bottomed out, though.

Speaker 182735.8s - 2736.16s

All right.

Speaker 172736.28s - 2737.36s

Thank you for watching Fast WORK_OF_ART.

Speaker 62737.96s - 2738.82s

See you tomorrow.

Speaker 52739.02s - 2740.48s

Bad Money, Jim Kramer PERSON, starts right now.

Speaker 172742.98s - 2747.18s

All opinions expressed by the fast money participants are solely their opinions and do not

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reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC Universal ORG, their parent company or affiliates, and may have

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been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium.

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You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make

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a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion.

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Such opinions are based upon information the fast money participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC ORG nor its affiliates and or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy,

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and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full fast money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com

Speaker 182780.58s - 2786.22s

I won't let my moderate to severe plaques psoriasis symptoms define me.

Speaker 22786.36s - 2787.46s

Emerge as you.

Speaker 182787.72s - 2792.54s

In two clinical studies, Trimfaya guselcumab, taken by injection, provided 90% clearer

Speaker 22792.54s - 2796.88s

skin at 16 weeks in 7 out of 10 adults with moderate to severe plaque psoriasis.

Speaker 122797.06s - 2801.8s

In a study, nearly 7 out of 10 patients with 90% clearer skin at 16 weeks were still clearer

Speaker 132801.8s - 2802.6s

at 5 years.

Speaker 142802.84s - 2808.22s

At one year and thereafter, patients and healthcare providers knew that Trremfaya PRODUCT was being used. This may have increased results.

Speaker 12808.5s - 2827.86s

Results may vary. Serious allergic reactions may occur. Tremfia may increase your risk of infections and lower your ability to fight them. Before treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection or symptoms of infection including fever, sweats, chills, muscle legs, or cough. Tell your doctor if you had a vaccine or plan to.

Speaker 142828s - 2841.56s

Emerge as you. Learn more about Tremfaya, including important safety information at Tremfaya.com ORG. Or call 1-8777-3527. See our ad in Food and Wine ORG magazine. For patients prescribed Tremfaya, cost support may be available.